Canada Housing Shortage Statistics 2026 | Affordability, Supply & Key Facts

Canada’s Housing Shortage in 2026

Canada’s housing shortage has moved from a talking point to a defining feature of national economic life in 2026. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has now abandoned its earlier, more optimistic 2030 timeline for restoring affordability and replaced it with a rolling ten-year horizon that still projects a wide and stubborn gap between how many homes Canada is building and how many it actually needs. Even as annual housing starts hit a five-year high in 2025, CMHC’s own modelling shows the country would need to nearly double that pace to bring homebuying costs back down to pre-pandemic levels.

This report lays out the most current, verified housing shortage statistics for Canada in 2026, sourced exclusively from CMHC and Statistics Canada. Readers will find figures on how many new homes Canada actually needs each year, how affordability has deteriorated in major cities since 2019, how housing starts and rental vacancy rates have shifted through 2025, and how many households remain in core housing need. Every number reflects the latest published federal data, giving homebuyers, renters, developers, and policymakers a single reliable reference point on the true scale of Canada’s housing shortfall today.

What makes the 2026 picture especially important is how CMHC’s own methodology has changed. Rather than chasing a fixed prior-decade affordability benchmark that the agency itself now considers unrealistic, the new framework targets a return to pre-pandemic affordability levels on a rolling ten-year basis, incorporating feedback effects like population mobility and suppressed household formation that earlier estimates left out. That shift makes the resulting figures more conservative in some ways and more revealing in others, since they capture not just how many homes are missing today, but how the shortage is likely to compound if construction does not accelerate.

Interesting Facts About Canada’s Housing Shortage in 2026

Before the detailed breakdown, here is a quick-reference table of standout figures defining Canada’s housing shortage this year.

Key 2026 Housing Shortage Figures
Homes Needed Annually (target)  ████████████████████████████████████████ 477,840
Current Projected Pace          ████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 245,000
2025 Housing Starts (actual)    ████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 259,028
Households in Core Housing Need ████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 1.5M
Toronto Affordability Ratio     ████████████████████████████████████░░░░ 74%

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, “Canada’s Housing Supply Shortages: Moving to a New Framework,” 2026; Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 2021.

These figures capture a housing system that is building more than ever before while still falling further behind. 2025’s national total of 259,028 housing starts was the fifth-highest annual total on record, yet CMHC’s own modelling concludes the country needs to add nearly double that pace, at 477,840 starts per year, to bring the national homebuying affordability ratio back down from its current elevated level to something close to 2019 norms.

The scale of the affordability erosion is starkest in Canada’s most expensive markets: Toronto’s homebuying affordability ratio climbed from 59% in 2019 to 74% in 2024, while Vancouver’s ratio surged from 71% to 99% over the same period, meaning the average Vancouver household purchasing an average home now needs to devote nearly all of its gross income to homeownership costs before the mortgage stress test is even applied. With roughly 1.5 million households already in core housing need and the population projected to reach 44.5 million by 2035, the pressure on housing supply shows no sign of easing without a sustained construction surge.

How Many New Homes Canada Needs in 2026

Annual Housing Starts Required vs. Projected (2025–2035)
Additional-Supply Target     ████████████████████████████████████████ 477,840
Business-as-Usual Projection ████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 245,000
Actual 2025 Starts           █████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 259,028

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, “Canada’s Housing Supply Shortages: Moving to a New Framework,” 2026.

CMHC’s updated framework represents a meaningful shift in how the shortage is measured. Rather than the earlier fixed 2030 deadline and cumulative 3.5-million-unit gap first published in 2022, the agency now models a rolling ten-year horizon and expresses the shortfall as an annual construction rate, concluding that Canada needs housing starts averaging around 480,000 units annually, nearly double the 245,000 currently projected under business-as-usual conditions. That gap of roughly 232,840 additional homes per year represents the difference between a housing market drifting further from affordability and one capable of gradually restoring it.

Even though 2025 delivered the fifth-highest annual housing-starts total on record at 259,028 units, that figure still falls far short of the 477,840 needed annually under CMHC’s additional-supply scenario. The gap matters because CMHC’s modelling explicitly builds in feedback effects: cheaper housing in one region draws in new households from elsewhere, meaning simply matching population growth is not enough. The target accounts for suppressed household formation as well, the young adults and renters who would form new households if homes were more affordable but currently cannot.

Homebuying Affordability by City in Canada 2026

Homebuying Affordability Ratio: 2019 vs. 2024 (% of gross income)
Vancouver       ████████████████████████████████████████████ 99% (2024)
Toronto         █████████████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░ 74% (2024)
Ottawa-Gatineau ███████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 44% (2024)
Montréal        █████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 48% (2024)

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, “Canada’s Housing Supply Shortages: Moving to a New Framework,” 2026.

CMHC’s homebuying affordability ratio measures the average house price relative to average gross household income, adjusted for mortgage rates and homeownership expenses, meaning a higher number represents a less affordable market. By this measure, Vancouver now sits at 99%, effectively meaning an average household would need to commit almost its entire gross income to cover homeownership costs, a level with almost no precedent in the data series stretching back to 1990. Toronto is not far behind at 74%, up sharply from 59% just five years earlier.

What stands out most in this table is how widespread the affordability collapse has become. Cities long considered comparatively affordable, including Ottawa-Gatineau and Montréal, saw their ratios climb by 14 and 14 percentage points respectively between 2019 and 2024, showing that the housing crisis is no longer confined to Toronto and Vancouver. Even Calgary and Edmonton, historically Canada’s most affordable major markets, posted meaningful increases, reflecting how population inflows from pricier provinces have pushed demand, and therefore prices, higher across the country.

National Housing Starts and Construction Activity in Canada 2026

National Housing Starts by Year
2025    ████████████████████████████████████████ 259,028
2024    ██████████████████████████████████████░░ 245,367

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, “Housing starts up 5.6% in 2025 from 2024,” January 2026.

The 2025 housing starts data reveals a construction landscape shifting geographically even as the national total climbed to its fifth-highest level on record. Rental housing construction drove much of this growth, making up just over half of all housing starts in Canada’s urban centres for a second consecutive year, while Montréal posted a striking 58% year-over-year increase and Calgary and Edmonton both notched record annual totals.

At the same time, Toronto’s housing starts fell 31% year over year, illustrating how condominium-market softness in Canada’s largest city is dragging down what would otherwise be a stronger national picture. This divergence matters for the shortage calculation because CMHC’s regional targets are not uniform: cities like Toronto and Vancouver need the largest absolute increases in construction to restore affordability, yet they are currently seeing some of the weakest momentum, widening the very gap the additional-supply scenario is meant to close.

Rental Market Vacancy and Rent Growth in Canada 2026

National Purpose-Built Rental Vacancy Rate
2023 (record low)   ██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 1.5%
2024                ███░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 2.2%
2025                ████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 3.1%

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, “Canada’s vacancy rate rises amid historically high rental construction,” December 2025.

The national rental vacancy rate climbing to 3.1% in 2025, up from just 1.5% at its 2023 record low, marks a genuine shift after years of extremely tight conditions. This loosening was driven by historically high rental completions combined with softer demand from slower population growth and reduced international student inflows, giving renters in cities like Vancouver, where vacancy hit its highest level since 1988 at 3.7%, more genuine choice for the first time in years.

However, more available units have not translated into meaningfully cheaper rent. The average 2-bedroom purpose-built rental still rose 5.1% to $1,550 in 2025, showing that even as the supply-demand balance eases, rents already embedded in the market from previous years of scarcity are slow to reverse. This pattern illustrates a key distinction in the housing shortage story: rental supply is improving faster than ownership supply, but affordability gains for existing renters remain limited because rent increases at turnover continue to outpace overall income growth.

Core Housing Need in Canada 2026

Core Housing Need Rate by Selected Province (2021 Census)
Nunavut              ████████████████████████████████████████ 33%
Nova Scotia          ████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 10.0%
Canada (national)    ████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 10.1%
Quebec               ███████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 6.0%

Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 2021.

Core housing need, defined by Statistics Canada as living in a dwelling that is unaffordable, inadequate, or unsuitable with no acceptable and affordable alternative available locally, affected roughly 1.5 million Canadian households in the most recent Census, or 10.1% of all households nationally. While this rate had actually improved from 12.7% in 2016, driven partly by pandemic-era income supports, renter households remained far more exposed than owners, with a full 20% of renter households in core housing need compared to a much smaller share of owners.

Regional disparities are stark, with Nunavut’s 33% core housing need rate more than three times the national average, reflecting acute housing shortages and construction costs in Canada’s North. Encouragingly, the number of children living in core housing need fell to 603,040, or 8.8% of all children, down from 13.3% in the previous Census cycle. Still, with nearly a fifth of all renter households affected and Indigenous households facing core housing need at roughly 1.3 times the rate of non-Indigenous households, this data shows that Canada’s housing shortage is not just a story about house prices in Toronto and Vancouver, but a structural affordability gap affecting renters and vulnerable populations nationwide.

The 2021 figures also show that affordability, not overcrowding or physical inadequacy, drives the large majority of core housing need cases, with 89% of renter households in core housing need struggling specifically with cost rather than space or dwelling condition. Female-led households and older women living alone face particularly elevated rates, at 12.8% and 23% respectively, underscoring that the housing shortage’s human impact skews toward groups already facing broader income and caregiving pressures. This affordability-first pattern reinforces why CMHC’s supply-side modelling treats income growth and construction volume as the two central levers for closing the gap, rather than focusing primarily on dwelling quality or overcrowding remediation.

Homeownership Rates and Tenure Trends in Canada 2026

Household Growth by Tenure Type (2011-2021, indexed)
Renter Households     ███████████████████████████████████████ Fastest growth
Owner Households      ████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ Slower growth

Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 2021; Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, “Canada’s Housing Supply Shortages: Moving to a New Framework,” 2026.

Canada’s homeownership rate fell to 66.5% in the most recent Census, down from 69% in 2016, with renter households growing more than twice as fast as owner households over the same decade. The decline was not evenly distributed across age groups: homeownership among Canadians aged 25 to 34 dropped from 48.4% to 45.5%, meaning a shrinking share of young adults are able to buy a first home compared to just five years earlier, even as homeownership among seniors aged 75 and older remained comparatively stable.

CMHC’s additional-supply modelling suggests that closing the affordability gap will still require the housing system to remain predominantly ownership-oriented, with 74.9% of the additional homes needed nationally falling into the ownership category and the remaining 25.1% split between primary and secondary rental markets. This composition varies sharply by city: in Toronto, 83.7% of the additional supply needed is ownership housing, reflecting how homeownership costs there have detached furthest from local incomes, while in Montréal, a comparatively lower 61.8% ownership share reflects a rental market that has historically absorbed more of that city’s housing demand.

Population Growth and Future Housing Demand in Canada 2026

Projected Canadian Population and Housing Stock, 2024 vs 2035 (millions)
Population 2035    ████████████████████████████████████████ 44.5M
Population 2024    ████████████████████████████████████░░░░ 41.2M
Housing Stock 2035 ████████████████████████████████████████ 19.75M
Housing Stock 2024 ████████████████████████████████░░░░░░░░ 17.0M

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, “Canada’s Housing Supply Shortages: Moving to a New Framework,” 2026, citing Statistics Canada population projections.

CMHC’s modelling projects Canada’s population will grow from 41.15 million in 2024 to 44.53 million by 2035, an increase already adjusted downward to reflect the federal government’s 2024 immigration policy changes reducing intake targets. Even with this more moderate growth path, the housing stock is only projected to expand from 16.995 million to 19.75 million units under business-as-usual construction rates, an increase of roughly 2.75 million homes against a population increase of 3.4 million people over the same period.

This demand-supply mismatch is compounded by a 22% projected real growth in the national economy over the same period, which CMHC’s modelling shows actually increases housing demand further, since higher average incomes allow more households to bid up prices for a still-limited supply if construction does not accelerate. Taken together, these projections explain why CMHC frames the housing shortage as a moving target: population growth, economic growth, and pent-up household formation are all working simultaneously against a construction sector that, even at record output levels, is not expanding fast enough to keep pace.

CMHC’s own modelling also stresses that closing this gap will require more than simply hiring more construction workers under current methods. The agency’s analysis found that raising construction-sector productivity by 31%, enough to match the average productivity level across all Canadian industries, would only add a further 2.9% to the national housing stock by 2035 and reduce prices by 5.7%, a meaningful but partial contribution. This suggests that even substantial gains in building technology, automation, and workforce efficiency will need to be paired with continued high construction volumes, sustained labour force growth, and supportive municipal approval processes if Canada is to make real progress on its housing shortage before the next decade is out.

Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.

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