Pancreatic cancer in the US 2026 is projected to cause 67,530 new diagnoses and 52,740 deaths, according to the American Cancer Society, making it the third leading cause of cancer death. The 5-year relative survival rate is 13% overall and 44% when the cancer is found while still localized.
Pancreatic Cancer in the US 2026 – Introduction
Pancreatic cancer in the US 2026 accounts for an estimated 67,530 new diagnoses and 52,740 deaths, based on the American Cancer Society’s Cancer Facts & Figures 2026. That is only 3.2% of new cancer cases but 8.4% of cancer deaths. Incidence has risen about 1% a year since the late 1990s, while the 5-year relative survival rate has stalled at 13% for the third year in a row, according to the Pancreatic Cancer Action Network.
Two developments mark 2026. The FDA approved daraxonrasib on August 26, 2026, the first RAS-targeted therapy for pancreatic cancer, after a phase 3 trial nearly doubled median survival in previously treated metastatic disease. National data also show the death rate leveling off while diagnoses keep climbing. This report covers incidence, deaths, survival by stage, risk factors, symptoms, treatment and state-level burden. Figures run through October 2026.
Interesting Facts About Pancreatic Cancer in the US 2026
ESTIMATED 2026 CASES AND DEATHS BY SEX (1 block = 2,000)
Men, new cases | ██████████████████ 35,190
Men, deaths | ██████████████ 27,230
Women, new cases | ████████████████ 32,340
Women, deaths | █████████████ 25,510
| Fact | Confirmed 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Estimated new cases | 67,530 (35,190 men, 32,340 women) |
| Estimated deaths | 52,740 (27,230 men, 25,510 women) |
| Share of all new cancer cases | 3.2% |
| Share of all cancer deaths | 8.4% |
| 5-year relative survival | 13% |
| 5-year survival, localized stage | 44% |
| Incidence trend | About +1% per year since the late 1990s |
| Rank among cancer deaths | Third, after lung and colorectal |
Source: American Cancer Society, Cancer Facts & Figures 2026, Tables 1 and 8 and the Pancreas section; shares calculated from Table 1.
The chart shows how close cases and deaths run. Men account for 35,190 cases and 27,230 deaths, and women for 32,340 cases and 25,510 deaths. Few cancers lose such a large share of patients: the 52,740 estimated deaths equal 78% of the 67,530 estimated new cases, although the two figures cover different groups of people.
The table shows the imbalance between diagnosis and death. Pancreatic cancer is 3.2% of new cases but 8.4% of deaths. ACS says the death rate rose slowly by 0.3% per year since the mid-1990s but appears to have stabilized in recent years, so the burden now grows mainly because more people are diagnosed. SEER’s rates, 13.9 new cases and 11.3 deaths per 100,000 people, show the same near-parity.
Pancreatic Cancer Incidence Rates 2026: New Cases by Sex, Race and Trend
AGE-ADJUSTED INCIDENCE BY RACE AND ETHNICITY, 2009-2018 (per 100,000; 1 block = 1)
Black | ███████████████ 15.4
Non-Hispanic white| █████████████ 13.2
Hispanic | ████████████ 11.6
Asian | ██████████ 10.0
| Measure | Rate per 100,000 |
|---|---|
| All persons, 2019–2023 (SEER) | 13.9 |
| Women, 2019–2023 (SEER) | 12.4 |
| Men, 2009–2018 | 14.8 |
| Women, 2009–2018 | 11.6 |
| Black, 2009–2018 | 15.4 |
| Non-Hispanic white, 2009–2018 | 13.2 |
Source: National Cancer Institute SEER Cancer Stat Facts, 2026; Journal of Clinical Oncology 2022, SEER analysis of 2009–2018 incidence.
The overall rate is 13.9 new cases per 100,000 people, and women’s rate is 12.4. In the older 2009–2018 analysis, men’s rate was 14.8 against 11.6 for women, a gap of about 28%. Black Americans had the highest rate at 15.4, about 17% above non-Hispanic white Americans at 13.2, while Hispanic (11.6) and Asian (10.0) rates were lower.
Pancreatic cancer is mostly a disease of older adults. SEER finds new cases are most frequent among people aged 65 to 74. The same JCO analysis found incidence rose 0.6% a year across 2009–2018 and in every racial group except Black men and American Indian and Alaska Native women. SEER’s 2025 trend analysis puts the average rise at 0.9% a year across 2013–2022, close to the ACS figure of 1%. The race comparison uses the most recent period with a published breakdown, so treat it as a pattern rather than a 2026 count.
Pancreatic Cancer Death Statistics 2026: The Third Leading Cause of Cancer Death
DEATHS PER 100 NEW CASES, 2026 ESTIMATES (1 block = 2)
Pancreas | ███████████████████████████████████████ 78
Lung | ███████████████████████████ 54
Colorectal | █████████████████ 35
Breast | ███████ 13
| Measure | Men | Women |
|---|---|---|
| Estimated deaths, 2026 | 27,230 | 25,510 |
| Rank among cancer deaths | 4th | 3rd |
| Share of cancer deaths | 8% | 9% |
| Rank among new cases | 10th | 7th |
| Death rate per 100,000, 2019–2023 | 12.9 | 9.9 |
Source: American Cancer Society, Cancer Facts & Figures 2026, Figure 3 and Table 5; ratios calculated from Table 1.
For every 100 estimated new cases, about 78 deaths are expected, against 54 for lung cancer, 35 for colorectal cancer and 13 for breast cancer. Pancreatic cancer deaths (52,740) are 95.5% of colorectal deaths (55,230) even though it has far fewer cases, and lung cancer still leads with 124,990. Among women, pancreatic cancer (25,510 deaths) kills more people than colorectal cancer (25,120), a reversal of the combined ranking.
Women face a worse rank than men. Pancreatic cancer is the third leading cause of cancer death in women (9%) and fourth in men (8%). The age-adjusted death rate is 12.9 per 100,000 men and 9.9 per 100,000 women, and the National Cancer Institute puts the combined rate at 11.3.
Pancreatic Cancer Survival Rate 2026 by Stage
5-YEAR RELATIVE SURVIVAL BY STAGE (1 block = 2%)
Localized | ██████████████████████ 44%
Regional | ████████▌ 17%
All stages | ██████▌ 13%
Distant | █▌ 3%
| Stage or Type | 5-Year Relative Survival |
|---|---|
| Localized (17% of diagnoses) | 44% |
| Regional | 17% |
| Distant | 3% |
| All stages | 13% |
| Exocrine tumors (92% of diagnoses) | 8% |
| Neuroendocrine tumors | 72% |
Source: American Cancer Society, Cancer Facts & Figures 2026, Table 8 and Pancreas section; SEER data for 2015–2021 diagnoses.
Stage decides almost everything. A patient diagnosed while the cancer is confined to the pancreas has a 44% chance of surviving five years, which is 14.7 times the 3% rate for distant disease. The trouble is timing: only 17% of patients are diagnosed at the localized stage. SEER’s latest overall figure is 13.7% for 2016–2022.
Tumor type matters as much. The roughly 92% of cases that start in exocrine tissue, the cells that make digestive enzymes, have an 8% survival rate. Neuroendocrine tumors, which start in hormone-producing cells, reach 72%, nine times higher, and they are usually diagnosed at a younger median age. PanCAN calls pancreatic cancer the deadliest major cancer and the only one with a 5-year survival rate under 20%.
Pancreatic Cancer Survival Trends 2026: 1975 to Today
5-YEAR RELATIVE SURVIVAL, ALL RACES (1 block = 1%)
1975-1977 | ███ 3%
1995-1997 | ████ 4%
2015-2021 | █████████████ 13%
| Period | All Races | White | Black |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1975–1977 | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| 1995–1997 | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| 2015–2021 | 13% | 13% | 12% |
Source: American Cancer Society, Cancer Facts & Figures 2026, Table 7; SEER 9 and SEER 21 registries.
Survival has risen 4.3 times since the mid-1970s, from 3% to 13%, but nearly all of that gain arrived after the 1990s. Between 1995–1997 and 2015–2021 it moved up 9 points. PanCAN reports the headline rate has held at 13% for three years in a row, and it has set a goal of 20% survival by 2030.
The racial gap in survival is small, at 13% for White patients and 12% for Black patients, but incidence is higher among Black Americans. Researchers link the higher mortality to more diagnoses at a distant stage and lower surgery rates, so a small survival gap sits on top of a larger case count.
Pancreatic Cancer Risk Factors 2026: Smoking, Diabetes, Weight and Genetics
SHARE OF PANCREATIC CANCER DEATHS ATTRIBUTABLE WORLDWIDE (1 block = 1%)
Cigarette smoking | █████████████████████ 21%
Glucose dysregulation | █████████ 9%
Obesity | ██████ 6%
| Risk Factor | Evidence |
|---|---|
| Smoking | About 2 times the risk of never-smokers; smokeless tobacco also raises risk |
| Type 2 diabetes | Established risk factor |
| Excess body weight | Established risk factor |
| Family history | Raises risk |
| Chronic pancreatitis | Often caused by heavy alcohol use |
| Inherited syndromes | Lynch syndrome; BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations |
Source: American Cancer Society, Cancer Facts & Figures 2026; Global Burden of Disease estimates summarized in Annals of Cancer Epidemiology.
People who smoke have about twice the risk of pancreatic cancer. Global Burden of Disease data attribute about 21% of pancreatic cancer deaths to smoking, 9% to glucose dysregulation and 6% to obesity. Those shares are worldwide estimates, not a US count, but they show that a large part of the burden follows risk factors that can be changed. Weight is one of them, and national adult trends are tracked in these obesity statistics in the US.
Some risk cannot be changed. Family history, chronic pancreatitis, Lynch syndrome and BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations raise risk, and ACS says people at high risk because of genetic predisposition or a strong family history can benefit from annual surveillance. ACS estimates that 40% of US cancer cases in adults, about 850,000 in 2026, are potentially avoidable through risk-factor changes, though it does not give a pancreas-specific share.
Pancreatic Cancer Symptoms and Early Detection 2026
SURGERY ELIGIBILITY AT DIAGNOSIS (1 block = 2%)
Candidates for surgery | ██████████ under 20%
Not surgical candidates | ████████████████████████████████████████ over 80%
| Topic | Fact |
|---|---|
| Common symptoms | Weight loss, abdominal pain that may radiate to the back, jaundice, nausea, vomiting |
| When symptoms appear | Usually when the disease is advanced |
| Average-risk screening | USPSTF recommends against screening without symptoms |
| High-risk surveillance | Annual endoscopic ultrasound and/or MRI may help |
| Surgery candidates | Fewer than 20% of patients |
| After surgery | Chemotherapy, sometimes radiation, may lower recurrence risk |
Source: American Cancer Society, Cancer Facts & Figures 2026, Pancreas section.
Symptoms arrive late. Weight loss, back-radiating abdominal pain and jaundice usually signal advanced disease, which explains why only 17% of cases are found at the localized stage. The US Preventive Services Task Force recommends against screening average-risk adults who have no symptoms, so surveillance is reserved for people with genetic predisposition or a strong family history.
The consequence shows up in treatment. Fewer than 20% of patients can have surgery because the cancer has usually spread beyond the pancreas by diagnosis, and surgery, radiation and chemotherapy rarely produce a cure. Earlier detection is the lever with the most room to grow, since survival at the localized stage is 44%.
Pancreatic Cancer Treatment 2026: The Daraxonrasib Approval
MEDIAN OVERALL SURVIVAL IN RASOLUTE 302 (months; 1 block = 0.5)
Daraxonrasib | ██████████████████████████ 13.2
Chemotherapy | █████████████▌ 6.7
| Measure | Daraxonrasib | Chemotherapy |
|---|---|---|
| Median overall survival, all patients | 13.2 months | 6.7 months |
| Hazard ratio for death | 0.40 | Reference |
| 1-year survival (RAS G12 group) | 53.3% | 18.7% |
| Median progression-free survival (RAS G12 group) | 7.3 months | 3.5 months |
| Objective response rate, all patients | 31.6% | 11.2% |
Source: ASCO Post, June 10, 2026 (2026 ASCO Annual Meeting plenary); Cleveland Clinic Journal of Medicine; Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, August 2026.
The FDA approved daraxonrasib, sold as Rasonque, on August 26, 2026. It is an oral RAS inhibitor, and it is the first approved RAS-targeted therapy for pancreatic cancer. In the phase 3 RASolute 302 trial of previously treated metastatic disease, median survival was 13.2 months against 6.7 months for chemotherapy, a 60% reduction in the risk of death. The FDA accepted the application for review on July 22 and approved it 35 days later, after granting Breakthrough Therapy designation in June 2025 and opening an expanded access program that drew heavy demand.
Keep the scope in view. The approval covers metastatic disease after first-line chemotherapy, the group with a 3% five-year survival, and a commentary in the trial literature notes that follow-up is still short, so the final survival figures may move. The drug does not change early-stage outcomes yet. For the wider picture of cancers that have spread, see these metastatic cancer statistics in the US.
Pancreatic Cancer by State 2026: Where Deaths Concentrate
ESTIMATED PANCREATIC CANCER DEATHS BY STATE, 2026 (1 block = 250)
California | █████████████████████ 5,250
Florida | █████████████████ 4,280
Texas | ███████████████ 3,770
New York | ████████████ 2,930
Pennsylvania | ██████████ 2,420
Ohio | █████████ 2,130
Illinois | ████████ 2,080
Michigan | ████████ 1,900
North Carolina | ███████ 1,840
New Jersey | ██████ 1,430
| State | Estimated Deaths 2026 | Men’s Death Rate | Women’s Death Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | 5,250 | 11.9 | 9.3 |
| Florida | 4,280 | 12.6 | 9.3 |
| Texas | 3,770 | 12.3 | 9.5 |
| New York | 2,930 | 12.3 | 9.4 |
| Pennsylvania | 2,420 | 13.9 | 10.4 |
| Ohio | 2,130 | 14.1 | 10.6 |
| Illinois | 2,080 | 13.5 | 10.3 |
| Michigan | 1,900 | 14.2 | 11.1 |
| North Carolina | 1,840 | 13.1 | 10.4 |
| New Jersey | 1,430 | 12.8 | 9.9 |
| United States | 52,740 | 12.9 | 9.9 |
Source: American Cancer Society, Cancer Facts & Figures 2026, Tables 3 and 5. Rates are per 100,000, age-adjusted, 2019–2023.
The ten states in the table account for 28,030 of the 52,740 estimated deaths, or 53%, and California alone has 5,250. Large states lead the counts because they have large populations, so rates tell a fairer story. Michigan (14.2 for men, 11.1 for women) and Ohio (14.1, 10.6) sit above the national rates of 12.9 and 9.9, while California (11.9, 9.3) sits below them. Puerto Rico reports the lowest rates in the ACS table, 8.1 for men and 5.4 for women.
The highest male rate is in Delaware at 14.8, with Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan and Wisconsin tied at 14.2. The lowest among states is Alaska at 10.8, followed by New Mexico (11.0) and Colorado (11.1). Pancreatic cancer also sits next to the other large digestive cancer in the national numbers, and the colorectal cancer statistics in the US show how the 55,230 colorectal deaths compare with pancreatic cancer’s 52,740.
Frequently Asked Questions About Pancreatic Cancer in the US 2026
How many people get pancreatic cancer in the US each year?
The American Cancer Society estimates 67,530 new cases in 2026, with 35,190 in men and 32,340 in women.
How many people die from pancreatic cancer in the US each year?
About 52,740 deaths are expected in 2026, which makes it the third leading cause of cancer death.
What is the survival rate for pancreatic cancer in 2026?
The 5-year relative survival rate is 13% overall. SEER’s latest figure for 2016–2022 is 13.7%.
What is the survival rate by stage?
It is 44% for localized, 17% for regional and 3% for distant disease.
Is pancreatic cancer becoming more common?
Yes. Incidence has risen about 1% a year since the late 1990s, though the death rate appears to have stabilized.
What are the main risk factors for pancreatic cancer?
Smoking, type 2 diabetes, excess body weight, family history, chronic pancreatitis, and inherited conditions such as Lynch syndrome and BRCA mutations.
What are the early symptoms of pancreatic cancer?
Weight loss, abdominal pain that may spread to the back, jaundice, nausea and vomiting. These usually appear when the disease is advanced.
Is there a screening test for pancreatic cancer?
Not for average-risk adults. The USPSTF recommends against screening people without symptoms, and high-risk people may be offered annual endoscopic ultrasound or MRI.
Who is most affected by pancreatic cancer?
Men have slightly more cases (35,190 vs 32,340), and Black Americans have the highest incidence, at 15.4 per 100,000 in 2009–2018 data.
What age is pancreatic cancer usually diagnosed?
Most often between ages 65 and 74, according to SEER.
What percentage of pancreatic cancer patients can have surgery?
Fewer than 20%, because the cancer has usually spread by diagnosis.
What new treatment was approved in 2026?
The FDA approved daraxonrasib (Rasonque) on August 26, 2026 for previously treated metastatic pancreatic cancer. Median survival was 13.2 months versus 6.7 months with chemotherapy.
What is the lifetime risk of pancreatic cancer?
About 1.6% of Americans, or roughly 1 in 64, are diagnosed during their lifetime, according to SEER-based estimates.
Is pancreatic cancer deadlier than breast cancer?
By ratio, yes. About 78 deaths are expected per 100 new pancreatic cancer cases in 2026, against 13 per 100 for breast cancer, although breast cancer has far more cases (324,580) than pancreatic cancer (67,530).
What is the death rate for pancreatic cancer?
SEER reports 11.3 deaths per 100,000 people for 2020–2024. ACS data for 2019–2023 show 12.9 for men and 9.9 for women.
Where does pancreatic cancer rank among new cancer cases?
It ranks tenth in men (35,190 cases) and seventh in women (32,340 cases), about 3% of new cases in each group.
Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.