Oil Refinery Statistics in US 2026 | Capacity, Output & Key Facts

Oil Refining in America 2026

The United States petroleum refining industry sits at a genuine inflection point in 2026 — one where decades of infrastructure dominance, record-breaking export performance, and some of the highest-capacity facilities on the planet are running alongside a wave of closures, shrinking margins, and a structural shift toward renewable fuels that is beginning to permanently reshape the domestic refining map. As of January 1, 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Refinery Capacity Report — the most authoritative federal survey of domestic refining infrastructure — documented 132 operable refineries with total atmospheric distillation capacity of 18.4 million barrels per calendar day (b/cd), virtually unchanged from 2024. Yet that flat headline number obscures a more complex story unfolding beneath it: the LyondellBasell Houston refinery permanently ceased operations in January 2025, removing 263,776 b/cd of capacity; the Phillips 66 Los Angeles refinery began its phased shutdown in October 2025, eliminating a further 139,000 b/cd; and Valero’s Benicia, California refinery is targeting permanent closure by April 2026 — removing yet another 145,000 b/cd from the US fuel supply chain. Together, these three closures are cutting roughly 550,000 b/cd from US refining capacity — equivalent to wiping more than three mid-size refineries off the map in under 18 months.

Understanding the US refining industry in 2026 requires holding two realities simultaneously. On one hand, the country’s refining complex remains the most productive in the world: US petroleum product exports set a new annual record of 6.6 million barrels per day in 2024, refineries are operating at utilization rates near 95%, and the Gulf Coast refining corridor — home to more than 50% of national capacity — continues to supply not just the domestic market but growing volumes of diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline to Latin America, Europe, and Asia. On the other hand, crack spreads — the critical margin between crude oil input costs and refined product selling prices — have been declining steadily since their post-pandemic peak in 2022, making marginal and mid-size refineries increasingly unviable. Refinery margins for gasoline and diesel fell approximately 26–29% year-over-year in 2024, and the EIA’s own forecasts project US refining capacity will shrink to approximately 17.9 million b/cd by end of 2025 — a 3% contraction driven entirely by closures. For the world’s largest refining nation, that is a significant structural adjustment — and it is happening faster than most market observers anticipated.

Interesting Facts: US Oil Refinery Statistics 2026

The following facts are drawn exclusively from EIA, AFPM, BLS, Phillips 66 SEC filings, and federally verified energy industry data published through May 2026.

Source: EIA Refinery Capacity Report — Data for January 1, 2025 (Released June 20, 2025); EIA Today in Energy — US Refining Capacity Largely Unchanged as of January 2025 (June 30, 2025); EIA Weekly Petroleum Data Summary — Week Ending December 12, 2025; EIA — Distillate and Jet Fuel Contribute to Record Petroleum Product Exports in 2024 (April 2025); EIA — Jet Fuel Made Up Record Share of US Refinery Output in 2024 (March 2025); EIA November 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook; EIA Today in Energy — Refinery Closures Present Risk for Higher Gasoline Prices on the West Coast (July 2025); Phillips 66 Form 8-K SEC Filing (October 2024); AFPM Economic Contributions of US Petroleum Refineries Report (Oxford Economics, July 2024); Statista — Largest Crude Oil Refineries in the US as of 2025 (citing EIA June 2025); Dallas Fed Energy Indicators December 2024

These facts collectively frame a US refining sector that is simultaneously the world’s most productive and under mounting structural pressure from multiple directions at once. The record 6.6 million b/d in petroleum product exports in 2024 demonstrates the competitive strength of US refining infrastructure — American refineries are producing more fuel and refined products than the domestic market consumes, generating $102 billion in net trade income in 2022 alone. Yet the closure pipeline tells a different story: three major refineries removing a combined ~550,000 b/d of capacity in the span of 15 months represents the fastest contraction in US refining since the post-1982 downsizing that cut the industry from 301 facilities to under 200. The crack spread compression of 2024 — where gasoline margins fell nearly 27% and coking margins dropped 29% year-over-year — is the direct financial driver, and until margin recovery materializes, further rationalization of the bottom tier of US refining capacity cannot be ruled out.

US Oil Refinery Capacity Statistics in 2026

US Oil Refinery Capacity — Historical & Current (EIA Data)
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Total Operable Capacity (Jan 1, 2025):
  Calendar Day:  18.4 million b/cd  ████████████████████████████████████████
  Stream Day:    ~19.5 million b/sd ████████████████████████████████████████████
  (Stream day ~6% higher than calendar day)

Projected Capacity (end of 2025, EIA STEO):
  17.9 million b/cd  ████████████████████████████████████████  (-3%)

Capacity by PADD District (estimated shares):
  PADD 3 (Gulf Coast):   ████████████████████████████████ >50%  (largest)
  PADD 2 (Midwest):      ████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~20%
  PADD 5 (West Coast):   ██████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~14%
  PADD 1 (East Coast):   ████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░  ~7%
  PADD 4 (Rocky Mtn):    ██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░  ~4%

Number of Refineries (operable): 132 (Jan 1, 2025)
  Peak (1982): 301 refineries
  2000:        ~160 refineries
  2025:         132 refineries

Idle capacity (Jan 1, 2024): 9,600 b/cd — all-time LOW (AFPM)
Top 3 refiners: Marathon, Valero, ExxonMobil
  All posted <1% calendar day capacity increases vs 2024 (EIA)
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Source: EIA Refinery Capacity Report — Data for January 1, 2025 (Released June 20, 2025); EIA Today in Energy — US Refining Capacity Largely Unchanged (June 30, 2025); EIA November 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook (Press Release); AFPM Refining Capacity Report January 1, 2025 (September 2025); AFPM Refining Capacity Report January 1, 2024 (citing EIA data)

The US oil refinery capacity picture at the start of 2026 is defined by a combination of structural stability and accelerating contraction. The 18.4 million b/cd confirmed in the EIA’s 2025 Refinery Capacity Report reflects a system that has actually held its aggregate capacity more stable than historical patterns might suggest: the 2023 addition of ExxonMobil’s 240,000 b/cd Beaumont expansion — the single largest domestic capacity addition in recent memory — helped offset prior-year closures and brought total capacity to its highest level since 2019. But with no comparable large-scale expansion project in 2024, and with the loss of LyondellBasell, Phillips 66, and Valero capacity already underway or imminent, the EIA’s projection of 17.9 million b/cd by end-2025 represents the lowest US refining capacity level since the early 2010s.

The geographic concentration of US refining capacity is one of the defining structural features of the industry and one of its most significant energy security considerations. With more than 50% of all US refining capacity concentrated in the Gulf Coast PADD 3 district — and Texas alone accounting for over 25% of national capacity — the US fuel supply chain is highly dependent on the uninterrupted operation of a relatively narrow geographic corridor. Hurricanes, extreme weather, and infrastructure disruptions in the Gulf Coast region have historically driven national gasoline and diesel price spikes, a vulnerability that the progressive closure of West Coast capacity only deepens. With California set to lose roughly 17% of its state refining capacity from the combined Phillips 66 and Valero closures, and given the limited pipeline connectivity between the West Coast and other US refining hubs, the EIA has explicitly identified the risk of West Coast fuel price increases and record gasoline import dependency in the 2025–2026 period.

Largest US Oil Refineries by Capacity in 2026

Top 10 US Refineries by Operable Capacity — January 2025 (EIA Data)
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Rank | Refinery                             | State | Capacity (b/cd)
─────┼──────────────────────────────────────┼───────┼─────────────────
  1  | Motiva Enterprises — Port Arthur     |  TX   | 640,500   ████████████████████████████████████
  2  | Marathon — Galveston Bay             |  TX   | 631,000   ███████████████████████████████████
  3  | Marathon — Garyville                 |  LA   | 597,000   █████████████████████████████████
  4  | ExxonMobil — Beaumont                |  TX   | 609,000   ██████████████████████████████████
  5  | ExxonMobil — Baytown                 |  TX   | 564,000   █████████████████████████████████
  6  | ExxonMobil — Baton Rouge             |  LA   | 522,000   ████████████████████████████████
  7  | CITGO — Lake Charles                 |  LA   | 418,000   ████████████████████████████
  8  | Valero — Port Arthur                 |  TX   | ~335,000  █████████████████████████
  9  | Shell — Deer Park                    |  TX   | ~340,000  █████████████████████████
 10  | Chevron — Richmond                   |  CA   | ~245,000  ████████████████████

All top 7 refineries = Gulf Coast (PADD 3)
Texas accounts for 4 of the top 5 facilities
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Source: EIA Refinery Capacity Report — Data for January 1, 2025 (June 2025); Statista — Largest Crude Oil Refineries in the US as of 2025 (citing EIA); EIA Today in Energy (June 30, 2025); Enerknol — US Refining Capacity Remains Steady as of January 2025 (July 2025); Abraham Watkins — Top 10 Largest Oil Refineries in the US (November 2025 citing EIA); Phillips 66 SEC Form 8-K (October 2024)

The geographic and corporate structure of America’s largest oil refineries reflects a century of investment decisions shaped by proximity to crude oil production, deepwater port access, and the logistics of the Gulf of Mexico energy corridor. All seven of the largest US refineries sit in the Gulf Coast PADD 3 district — four in Texas, three in Louisiana — and the concentration of capacity in this region is no accident. The Texas Gulf Coast, from the Houston Ship Channel through Beaumont, Port Arthur, and down to the Corpus Christi area, forms one of the most densely integrated petrochemical and refining complexes on earth. The Motiva Port Arthur refinery — owned by Saudi Aramco subsidiary Motiva Enterprises — reclaimed the title of largest US refinery by calendar day capacity in the 2025 EIA report, while Marathon’s Galveston Bay facility retains the top stream day position at 665,000 b/sd, capable of processing more crude oil per day than the entire national output of many mid-tier oil-producing countries.

The ExxonMobil Beaumont facility deserves particular attention as the most consequential recent development in US refinery capacity: the 2023 expansion added 240,000 b/cd to the site, bringing total throughput to approximately 609,000 b/cd and making it one of the most significant single-site capacity additions in US refining history in the past two decades. At the other end of the scale, the closure column of the table tells the more structurally significant 2025–2026 story: LyondellBasell’s Houston facility — which before its January 2025 shutdown produced approximately 140,000 b/d of gasoline and 100,000 b/d of diesel — has been permanently removed from the US fuel supply chain, and the combined exits of Phillips 66’s Los Angeles complex and Valero’s Benicia refinery are eliminating California’s most significant integrated refining operations outside of the Chevron Richmond facility.

US Refinery Output & Product Statistics in 2026

US Refinery Output by Product — 2024 (EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly)
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Total Refined Product Output — 3 dominant products make up >85% of output:

  Motor Gasoline:      ████████████████████████████████████ ~44–46% of yield (LOWEST since 2015)
  Distillate Fuel Oil: ███████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~25–27% of yield
  Jet Fuel:            ████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~9–10% (RECORD HIGH share in 2024)

Weekly output snapshot (week ending Dec 12, 2025 — EIA):
  Gasoline:   9.6 million b/d   ████████████████████████████████████████
  Distillate: 5.2 million b/d   ████████████████████████
  Crude inputs: 17.0 million b/d
  Capacity utilization: 94.8%

2024 Record Exports:
  Total petroleum products:  6.6 million b/d  (NEW RECORD — ↑ 495,000 b/d vs 2023)
  Distillate fuel oil:       ~1.30 million b/d
  Motor gasoline:            877,000 b/d
  Jet fuel:                  209,000 b/d

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Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Data Summary — Week Ending December 12, 2025 (EIA); EIA — Jet Fuel Made Up Record Share of US Refinery Output in 2024 (March 24, 2025); EIA — Distillate and Jet Fuel Contribute to Record US Petroleum Product Exports in 2024 (April 23, 2025); EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook — Petroleum Products Page (April 2026); AFPM Economic Contributions of US Petroleum Refineries (Oxford Economics, July 2024)

The output profile of US refineries in 2025–2026 reflects a deliberate shift by American refiners toward the product that currently commands the best market margins: jet fuel. The EIA’s March 2025 analysis confirmed that jet fuel’s share of total US refinery output reached a record high in 2024 — driven by the sustained recovery of commercial aviation and the continued strong growth in air freight demand — while motor gasoline’s share dropped to its lowest level since 2015. This is not a permanent structural change but a rational response to relative crack spreads: refiners operate within the technical constraints of their configurations but consistently tilt their product slates toward the margin-maximizing mix. As jet travel demand continues to grow faster than gasoline consumption, which is increasingly capped by rising EV penetration and vehicle fuel economy improvements, this shift toward jet fuel production is likely to continue in the years ahead.

The record 6.6 million b/d in total petroleum product exports in 2024 is one of the most important statistics in this entire dataset, and it demands context. The United States — once heavily import-dependent for refined products — has transformed over the past two decades into the world’s largest exporter of refined petroleum products, and that transformation continues to accelerate. Mexico alone absorbs more than half of US gasoline exports, making it the single most important foreign customer for American refining output. Distillate and diesel exports remain the highest-volume transport fuel category, with 1.30 million b/d shipped abroad in 2024, underscoring how US refining infrastructure is now deeply integrated into global supply chains. The closure of West Coast refineries, however, creates a notable tension: the US is simultaneously expanding petroleum product exports from the Gulf Coast while becoming more dependent on imports from Asia into the West Coast market — a geographic asymmetry that the EIA’s July 2025 analysis explicitly flagged as a risk.

US Refinery Closures & Capacity Contraction in 2025–2026

Major US Refinery Closures — 2024–2026
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Facility                      | Capacity  | Closure Date   | Jobs Lost
──────────────────────────────┼───────────┼────────────────┼──────────────
LyondellBasell — Houston, TX  | 263,776 b/cd | January 2025 | Not specified
Phillips 66 — LA/Wilmington,CA| 139,000 b/cd | Q4 2025      | ~600 + 300
Valero — Benicia, CA          | 145,000 b/cd | April 2026   | ~400+
Phillips 66 — Rodeo, CA (conv)| 58,200 b/cd  | Feb 2024     | (converted)

Combined 2025–2026 Capacity Removed:  ~547,776 b/cd

California impact:
  Phillips 66 + Valero combined:  ~284,000 b/cd
  = ~17% of California's total refining capacity
  = ~11% of West Coast (PADD 5) capacity

CA refineries closing since 2008: 6 plants shut down (incl conversions)
  2 converted to renewable diesel — enabling premium subsidy income

Historical context:
  US refineries: 301 (1982) → ~160 (2000) → 132 (2025)
  Each closure era driven by different economics
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Source: EIA Today in Energy — US Refining Capacity Largely Unchanged (June 30, 2025); EIA — Refinery Closures Present Risk for Higher Gasoline Prices on the West Coast (July 9, 2025); Phillips 66 Form 8-K SEC Filing (October 16, 2024); OilPrice.com — California Faces High Pump Prices as Phillips 66 Shuts LA Refinery (August 28, 2025); IER — California’s Refinery Situation Looks Like It Will Get Worse (April 2025); CalMatters — Oil Refinery Closures Leave Workers Searching for a Job (October 2025); Mansfield Energy — What US Refinery Closures Mean for Fuel Prices, Supply, and Exports (March 2025)

The wave of US refinery closures in 2025–2026 represents the most concentrated capacity contraction since the industry downsizing of the early 1980s — and it is playing out in a distinctly uneven geographic pattern. The three major closures removing approximately 548,000 b/cd are not distributed evenly: two of the three are concentrated in California, and the third — LyondellBasell’s Houston facility — was the result of a seven-year failed sale process in which the company could not find a buyer willing to operate a refinery with its cost structure and crude slate. California’s situation is unique and increasingly severe. Six refinery plants have shut down or converted since 2008 in the state, driven by a combination of California’s strict environmental regulations, the state’s declared goal of reducing gasoline use to one-tenth current levels by 2045, rising operating costs, and the premium economics of converting petroleum refinery infrastructure to renewable diesel production — which qualifies for California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits worth approximately $3.70 per gallon in additional subsidy income.

The human cost of these closures is concentrated in specific communities where refinery work has historically been the highest-paying blue-collar employment available. Union workers at the Phillips 66 LA complex earned approximately $115,000 per year plus pension and retirement benefits — compensation levels that, as CalMatters reporting made clear, are essentially impossible to replicate in alternative industries without years of additional education or retraining. The EIA’s explicit warning that the California closures risk driving fuel inventories to their lowest levels since 2000 and pushing West Coast gasoline imports to record levels from Asian suppliers underscores the real-world supply chain consequence of removing domestic refining capacity in a region with no pipeline connectivity to the Gulf Coast refining hub. For California motorists and the businesses dependent on West Coast fuel supply, the closure of these facilities will register at the pump.

US Oil Refinery Industry by State — Capacity & Rankings 2026

US Refinery Capacity by Key States — January 2025 (EIA Data)
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Texas:        ████████████████████████████████████████████████ ~5.3M b/cd (>25% of national)
Louisiana:    ████████████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~3.3M b/cd
California:   ████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~1.7M b/cd (SHRINKING)
Illinois:     ████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~1.0M b/cd
Washington:   ███████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~0.65M b/cd
Pennsylvania: ██████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~0.45M b/cd
Oklahoma:     █████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~0.42M b/cd
All Other:    ████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~3.7M b/cd combined

10 Houston-area refineries alone: 2.6 million b/cd
4 of nation's 10 largest refineries: Texas Gulf Coast
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Source: EIA Refinery Capacity Report — Data for January 1, 2025 (Table 3: Capacity by State, June 2025); Statista — Largest Crude Oil Refineries in the US 2025 (citing EIA); Abraham Watkins — 4 of Nation’s 10 Largest Oil Refineries on Texas Gulf Coast (November 2025 citing EIA); EIA — Refinery Closures Present Risk for Higher Gasoline Prices on the West Coast (July 2025)

The state-level distribution of US refining capacity tells a story of extraordinary geographic concentration that has deepened rather than diversified over the past four decades. Texas alone accounts for more than 25% of all US refining capacity, and when Louisiana is added, these two Gulf Coast states together represent approximately 40% of the entire nation’s ability to process crude oil into fuel. The Houston metropolitan area alone — with its Ship Channel refineries, Galveston Bay complex, and surrounding industrial corridor — processes 2.6 million barrels per calendar day, more crude oil than any non-Texas state handles in total. This concentration reflects decades of investment logic: Texas sits adjacent to the largest producing basins in the US, has deep water access for crude imports, and operates within a regulatory environment that has been consistently favorable to capital-intensive industrial operations.

California’s refining situation in 2026 is the sharpest illustration of how quickly a state’s energy self-sufficiency can erode when regulatory and economic pressures converge. With approximately 1.7 million b/cd of state capacity before the Phillips 66 and Valero closures, California was the third-largest refining state in the US. The removal of ~284,000 b/cd from that base — representing 17% of state capacity — in the course of a single calendar year, combined with the lack of any interstate pipeline connections to Gulf Coast refining that would allow California to easily substitute domestic imports, means the state’s gasoline and jet fuel markets will be increasingly exposed to Asian import prices and Pacific shipping logistics rather than domestic refinery economics. This is not a distant energy transition scenario. It is already happening in real time as the EIA’s July 2025 report made clear.

US Refinery Industry Economic Contribution & Workforce in 2026

Economic Contribution of US Petroleum Refineries (AFPM/Oxford Economics 2022 data)
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Total Economic Contribution:  $688 BILLION to US economy
Total Jobs Supported:          ~3 million
  Direct refinery workers:     64,500  ██░░░░░░░░
  Indirect employees:       1,500,000+ ██████████████████████████░░
  Induced workers:          1,300,000+ ██████████████████████░░░░░░

Job Multiplier: 46 — HIGHEST of any US industry
(Every 1 direct refinery job = 45 other jobs supported economy-wide)

Direct worker annual compensation: $334,000 avg (wages + benefits)
US average across all industries:    $97,000/year
Refinery premium over US average:   +$237,000/year

Tax Revenue Generated:
  Total: $162 billion/year
    Federal:  $77 billion
    State:    $47 billion
    Local:    $38 billion

Capital Investment (2019–2021 avg): $9 billion/year
  = 10% of industry's GDP contribution — higher than any other US mfg sector

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Source: AFPM — Economic Contributions of US Petroleum Refineries (Oxford Economics, July 2024 — using 2022 IMPLAN data); AFPM Blog — Supporting Millions of Jobs and Contributing Billions (August 2024); BIC Magazine — Understanding the Economic Impact of US Refineries (April 2025); CalMatters — Oil Refinery Closures Leave Workers Searching for a Job (October 2025)

The economic weight of the US petroleum refining industry is difficult to overstate. The AFPM’s Oxford Economics analysis — the most comprehensive independent assessment of the sector’s national economic footprint — confirms that the $688 billion annual contribution to the US economy from refining operations and the jobs they support represents a remarkable concentration of economic activity from a relatively small number of physical facilities. The industry’s job multiplier of 46 — the highest of any sector in the US economy — reflects the extraordinary density of supply chain relationships that surround every operating refinery: from crude oil transportation and storage through equipment maintenance, chemical supply, logistics, engineering services, and the retail fuel markets that are the downstream customers for everything the refineries produce. The $162 billion in annual tax revenue — split across federal, state, and local government — funds schools, emergency services, infrastructure, and public health programs in refinery communities across the Gulf Coast, Midwest, and West Coast.

The workforce data carries a particularly acute human dimension in 2026, given the concurrent wave of closures. The average direct refinery compensation of $334,000 per year — more than three times the US average — reflects not just base wages but the full cost of healthcare, retirement, and safety benefits in an industry that operates continuous 24/7 processes in environments that require highly skilled, certified personnel. When the CalMatters reporting on displaced Phillips 66 LA workers revealed that union employees earned $115,000 per year in salary alone — with a full pension and 8% 401(k) match — it illustrated exactly why refinery closures are not routine layoff events: for workers without college degrees in the communities surrounding these facilities, there is effectively no comparable private sector employer. The state job transition funding available to displaced workers barely covers the cost of retraining programs, let alone compensates for years of lost wage-level earnings. Every refinery closure creates a community-level economic shock that persists long after the facility gates close.

US Refinery Utilization, Margins & Market Outlook in 2026

US Refinery Utilization & Margin Trends — 2024–2026 (EIA Data)
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Refinery Utilization Rate (Dec 2025):  94.8%  ████████████████████████████████████████░░

Crude Oil Inputs (Dec 12, 2025 week):  17.0 million b/d

Crude Oil Inventories (Dec 2025):      424.4 million barrels
  vs 5-year average:                   About 4% BELOW average

Crack Spread Performance (2024 vs 2023):
  3:2:1 NY Brent spread:        ▼ ~27% year-over-year
  Gulf Coast WTI crack:         ▼ ~25% year-over-year
  Gulf Coast Mars coker margin: ▼ ~29% year-over-year
  Gulf Coast Mars FCC margin:   ▼ ~15% year-over-year

Distillate demand outlook (2025):  ↑ 4% (150,000 b/d increase projected by EIA)
  Driven by manufacturing growth and trucking demand

EIA Retail Price Forecasts (2026):
  Gasoline:    $3.70/gallon average
  Diesel:      $4.80/gallon average
  Both up from 2025 ($3.10 gasoline; $3.66 diesel)

Brent crude oil forecast (2025): ~$76/barrel average (EIA STEO)
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Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Data Summary — Week Ending December 12, 2025; EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Petroleum Products Page (April 2026); EIA November 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook Press Release; Dallas Fed Energy Indicators December 2024

The operational and financial picture for US refineries in 2026 reflects a system that is physically running near peak efficiency while commercially navigating a period of compressed margins — a combination that explains the apparent paradox of high utilization rates alongside refinery closures. The 94.8% utilization rate in December 2025 — with 17.0 million b/d of crude inputs — confirms that operating refineries are genuinely running hard: demand for refined products remains robust, and the facilities that remain open after the 2025 closures are processing oil at levels that leave very little slack in the system. Yet the crack spread compression of 2024 — where key refinery margin proxies fell 25–29% compared to 2023 — reflects the broader reality that the post-COVID margin bonanza has unwound, global refinery capacity is growing faster than demand in key markets, and weaker economic activity in China and Europe dragged on the distillate and diesel markets that US refiners had counted on for export revenue.

The EIA’s 2026 price forecasts — $3.70/gallon for gasoline and $4.80/gallon for diesel — both represent meaningful increases from 2025 levels, and the agency’s analysis points to a convergence of factors: crude oil prices expected to remain in the mid-$70s per barrel range, distillate inventories running below their five-year average, and the structural supply reduction from the 2025 California closures putting pressure on West Coast markets in particular. The 4% projected increase in US distillate consumption in 2025, driven by manufacturing growth and trucking activity, is the most positive demand-side signal in the near-term outlook — and if it materializes in line with EIA expectations, it will partially offset the margin compression that triggered the closure decisions. What 2026 ultimately demonstrates about the US refining industry is that the sector’s extraordinary infrastructure legacy — built over more than a century of investment — remains productive, globally competitive, and economically vital, even as the structural forces of energy transition, regulatory cost, and shifting demand patterns gradually reshape the map of where, and how much, American refining capacity will operate in the decade ahead.

Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.

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