White Christmas Statistics in US 2025 | Key Facts

White Christmas in US 2025

The dream of experiencing a white Christmas remains one of America’s most cherished holiday traditions, deeply embedded in the cultural fabric through classic songs, nostalgic films, and treasured family memories. However, the reality of waking up to a snow-covered landscape on December 25th varies dramatically across the United States. According to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, a white Christmas is officially defined as having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25th. This definition includes both fresh snowfall on Christmas Day itself and snow that accumulated in the days or weeks prior and remained on the ground through the holiday. Understanding the statistical probability of experiencing this winter wonderland phenomenon helps millions of Americans plan their holiday celebrations and set realistic expectations based on their geographic location.

The 2025 Christmas season presents a particularly interesting weather pattern influenced by La Niña conditions and a polar jet stream positioned far north across Canada. NOAA data from December 2025 indicates that only approximately 22 percent of the Lower 48 states were covered by snow as of late December, which is below the historical average of 36 percent snow cover observed since 2003. The warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the continental United States have created challenging conditions for snow accumulation, with many regions experiencing rain instead of snow despite above-average precipitation levels. This climate pattern has significantly reduced the chances of a white Christmas in the US in 2025 compared to previous years, making snow coverage more concentrated in traditional northern regions and high-elevation areas where cold temperatures can sustain snowpack throughout the holiday season.

Interesting Facts About White Christmas in the US 2025

Data Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), National Weather Service, Weather Prediction Center (December 2025)

The fascinating statistics about white Christmas probabilities in the US 2025 reveal dramatic regional variations and the significant impact of current weather patterns on holiday snow coverage. The 22 percent snow coverage reported by NOAA in late December 2025 represents one of the lower coverage years in recent history, ranking closer to the minimal coverage seen in 2023 when only 16.7 percent of the nation experienced a white Christmas. This stands in stark contrast to 2022, when an impressive 53 percent of the country was blanketed in snow on Christmas morning, representing the most widespread white Christmas in recent decades. The 14 states identified by weather forecasters as having the highest probability for a white Christmas in 2025 include Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Colorado, Utah, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and Massachusetts, with these regions benefiting from either high elevation or proximity to Canada and the Great Lakes.

The comprehensive analysis based on nearly 15,000 weather stations operated by NOAA’s National Weather Service provides the most accurate historical probability data available. These stations have collected observations continuously over decades, allowing meteorologists to calculate the 1991-2020 Climate Normals, which represent three-decade averages of temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and snow depth measurements. The La Niña weather pattern influencing winter 2025-2026 has kept the polar jet stream positioned far to the north, preventing Arctic cold air from consistently spilling into the lower 48 states. This meteorological situation explains why many regions that received significant early December snowfall experienced melting before Christmas Day, as warmer air masses dominated the weather pattern leading up to the holiday. Understanding these statistics helps contextualize why approximately 18 percent of the continental United States typically experiences snow in late December, making a white Christmas the exception rather than the rule for most Americans.

Historical White Christmas Probability by Region in the US 2025

Data Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 1991-2020 Climate Normals, NOAA Weather Prediction Center (December 2025)

The regional probability data for experiencing a white Christmas in the US in 2025 demonstrates the stark geographic divide in snow coverage across the nation. The Northern Plains region, encompassing North Dakota and northern Minnesota, boasts the highest reliability for white Christmas conditions with probabilities ranging from 60 to 100 percent. These northern tier states bordering Canada receive consistent snowfall beginning in November, and their frigid temperatures ensure snow remains on the ground through the holiday season. Similarly, the Upper Midwest region maintains impressive white Christmas statistics, with probabilities between 40 and 90 percent depending on specific location. Minneapolis leads major metropolitan areas with an astounding 74 to 80 percent historical probability, while smaller cities in northern Michigan, such as Marquette with 95.6 percent and Duluth with 92.2 percent, virtually guarantee snowy holiday conditions.

The Northern New England states present another reliable region for white Christmas enthusiasts, with the White Mountains of New Hampshire achieving 97 percent probability and northern Vermont ranging from 75 to 95 percent likelihood. These mountainous areas benefit from both elevation and proximity to cold Canadian air masses. However, moving south through New England dramatically reduces probabilities, with Boston dropping to only 25-32 percent chance and coastal areas of Connecticut and Rhode Island seeing even lower figures around 13-20 percent. The Central Rockies and Northern Rockies remain the most dependable regions in the entire country, with mountain towns like Aspen, Colorado, recording 99.9 percent probability and Crested Butte nearly achieving 100 percent certainty. The dramatic elevation changes create sharp contrasts, where areas just outside the mountains may see probabilities drop to 40-75 percent. Meanwhile, the Southern States, West Coast, and Gulf Coast regions register probabilities below 10 percent, with many locations showing 0 percent historical occurrence, making a white Christmas virtually impossible in cities like Houston, Miami, San Diego, and Honolulu.

Major US Cities White Christmas Probability in 2025

Data Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, AccuWeather Historical Analysis, National Weather Service (1991-2020 Climate Normals)

The white Christmas probability statistics for major metropolitan areas reveal that none of the 25 most populous cities in the United States exceed a 34 percent chance of experiencing snow on Christmas morning. Denver claims the top position among major cities with 34 percent historical probability based on records from Stapleton Airport, though the Mile High City experiences clustered patterns where white Christmases occur in groups of years. Between 2006 and 2012, Denver saw snow on the ground for Christmas in all but one year, while between 2013 and 2021, only two white Christmases occurred. The most recent white Christmas in Denver happened in 2022 with 2 inches of snow on the ground, though 2023 returned to bare ground conditions. Minneapolis-St. Paul stands out as the clear leader with an impressive 74 to 80 percent probability, making it the most reliable major metropolitan area in the eastern two-thirds of the country for holiday snow.

Chicago follows closely behind with 33 to 34 percent probability, having experienced white Christmas conditions eight times since 2000, most recently in 2022 with 1 inch on the ground and in 2017 with 2 inches. The record snowfall on Christmas Day in Chicago remains 5.1 inches set in 1950. Indianapolis at 26 percent, Boston at 25 to 32 percent, and Columbus at 22.6 percent round out cities with approximately one-in-four or one-in-five chances. For 2025, weather forecasters indicate that pre-holiday melting significantly reduced snow cover across the Midwest and Northeast, with only 22 percent of the Lower 48 states showing snow coverage as of late December. The eastern seaboard major cities face particularly low probabilities, with New York City at only 13 percent, Philadelphia at 9.3 percent, and Washington DC at merely 6 to 7 percent. The most recent white Christmas in New York City occurred in 2009 when 2 inches remained from a storm that deposited 10.8 inches on December 19-20, while the heaviest Christmas Day snowfall in NYC history was 7 inches in 1909.

Highest Probability Locations for White Christmas in the US 2025

Data Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, NOAA Climate.gov Interactive Map, Mental Floss White Christmas City Rankings, Minnesota DNR (1991-2020 Climate Normals)

The locations with the highest probability for experiencing a white Christmas in the US in 2025 cluster in three distinct geographic categories: Alaska and extreme northern regions, high-elevation Rocky Mountain communities, and areas influenced by Great Lakes lake-effect snow. The Kuparuk weather station in Alaska holds the distinction of being the only location with a guaranteed 100 percent probability, ensuring that every Christmas features substantial snow coverage. Among the lower 48 states, Aspen, Colorado leads with an extraordinary 99.9 percent probability, making it virtually certain that this world-renowned ski destination will have snow on the ground for Christmas. Similarly, Crested Butte, Colorado boasts nearly 100 percent probability, representing one of only a handful of weather stations in the contiguous United States with such reliable snow coverage during the holiday season.

The Northern Rockies region continues the pattern of exceptional reliability, with Missoula, Montana recording 98 percent probability and numerous high-elevation locations throughout Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Utah, and Colorado showing probabilities between 85 and 99 percent. The Great Lakes region contributes several highly reliable locations, particularly on the eastern and southern shores where lake-effect snow creates enhanced accumulation. Marquette, Michigan in the Upper Peninsula achieves 95.6 percent probability, while Duluth, Minnesota ranges from 92 to 97 percent with an average snow depth of 8 inches on Christmas morning. The Northern New England states provide multiple high-probability locations, with the White Mountains of New Hampshire at 97 percent, while Caribou, Maine achieves 92 percent probability with typical snow depths between 8 and 13 inches. Even Bangor, Maine shows 75 percent probability with 8 inches currently on the ground for 2025, guaranteeing a white Christmas this year. These statistics demonstrate that while most of America has relatively low chances of snow on Christmas, certain geographic locations offer near certainty for those specifically seeking a traditional snowy holiday experience.

2025 Current Snow Coverage and Forecast in the US

Data Source: NOAA National Weather Service, Weather Prediction Center, CBS News Weather Analysis, FOX Weather Forecast Center (December 2025)

The 2025 white Christmas forecast presents a mixed picture across the United States, with total snow coverage in the Lower 48 states at approximately 22 percent as of late December, significantly below the historical average of 36 percent observed since 2003. Weather forecasters predict that by Christmas morning, coverage may expand slightly to approximately 26 percent, similar to 2024’s coverage and well above the record-low 16.7 percent seen in 2023 but far below the 53 percent coverage achieved in 2022. The 14 states most likely to experience a white Christmas in 2025 are concentrated in predictable regions: Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Colorado, and Utah in the West; North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan in the Midwest; and New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and Massachusetts in the Northeast.

Northern Maine stands out as a guaranteed white Christmas location for 2025, with current snow depths of 8 inches in Bangor and 13 inches in Caribou, both cities having historical probabilities of 75 percent and 92 percent respectively. The Pacific Northwest has seen dramatic improvements in recent days, with major storm systems finally bringing substantial snowfall to the Cascades and Sierra Nevada after what had been one of the worst early season starts in recent years. California ski resorts reported 48 inches in 48 hours from recent storms, with forecasts calling for one to six feet of additional accumulation over Christmas. However, this snow remains concentrated at higher elevations, with lower elevation areas continuing to receive rain. The Midwest and Northeast regions experienced significant pre-holiday melting despite impressive early December snowfall, as temperatures climbed well above normal leading up to Christmas. Cities that saw their coldest first half of December on record, including Cleveland, Detroit, and Pittsburgh, watched their snowpack diminish as warmer air dominated the second half of the month.

Temperature and Weather Patterns Affecting White Christmas US 2025

Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, National Weather Service, Weather Prediction Center, NOAA Winter Outlook 2025-26 (December 2025)

The weather patterns influencing white Christmas prospects in 2025 center around a weak La Niña pattern and an unusually northward-positioned polar jet stream that have combined to create warmer-than-normal conditions across much of the continental United States. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, La Niña conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with a 51 percent chance of persistence through December-February 2025-26, though the pattern is expected to remain weak with sea surface temperature anomalies between -0.5°C and -0.9°C. This weak La Niña would typically favor colder and snowier conditions across the northern tier of states, but the polar jet stream’s position far to the north has kept the coldest Arctic air bottled up in Canada, preventing the sustained cold needed to maintain widespread snow cover.

A substantial ridge of high pressure developed across the southern central Plains leading up to Christmas, according to Weather Prediction Center meteorologist Scott Kleebauer, driving temperatures well above normal throughout Minnesota, the Dakotas, and extending eastward. This warm pattern represents a dramatic reversal from the first half of December 2025, when dozens of Midwest and East Coast cities, including Madison, Wisconsin, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh, experienced one of their top 10 coldest early December periods on record. That early cold allowed significant snow accumulation, but the subsequent warmth melted much of that snowpack before Christmas. The atmospheric river pattern affecting the West Coast brought heavy precipitation to California and the Pacific Northwest, but warm temperatures created a high rain/snow line, with snow confined to elevations above 6,000 to 8,000 feet in many areas. Only the most recent storms brought the freezing level low enough to produce snow at ski resort elevations, finally allowing areas like Mammoth Mountain to open approximately one-third of terrain. The lake-effect snow mechanism remains active across the Great Lakes, providing reliable snowfall to downwind areas of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and western New York, though even these regions face challenges from periodic warm air intrusions.

States Expected to Experience White Christmas in 2025

Data Source: FOX Weather Forecast Center, National Weather Service, Weather Channel Forecast (December 2025)

The 14 states identified by weather forecasters as having the best chances for a white Christmas in 2025 span three distinct geographic regions of the United States, with dramatically different snow depth expectations and probability patterns. The Western states of Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Colorado, and Utah represent the most reliable region, where high-elevation Rocky Mountain terrain virtually guarantees substantial snow coverage. Snow totals in these mountain areas range from 10 to 24+ inches or more, with some locations potentially seeing depths exceeding two feet. Areas surrounding the mountains at lower elevations still maintain 40 to 75 percent probability according to forecasters, making this the safest bet for Americans actively seeking a white Christmas experience. The dramatic elevations create sharp gradients where probability and snow depth change rapidly over short distances, with mountain passes and ski resort areas showing the deepest and most reliable coverage.

The Midwest states of North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan present more variable conditions for 2025. Northern North Dakota along the Canadian border maintains the highest reliability in this region with expected depths of 5 to 12 inches. Minnesota shows strong probability in the northern third of the state, where current conditions support 8 to 15 inches of snow coverage, while southern Minnesota faces lower chances. Wisconsin’s prospects concentrate in the northern half of the state where 5 to 12 inches are expected, while southern Wisconsin faces minimal chances. Michigan’s Upper Peninsula stands out as the Midwest’s most reliable location with 10 to 20 inches expected, enhanced by persistent lake-effect snow from Lake Superior. The Northeast states complete the list with New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and Massachusetts. Maine offers the most certain white Christmas with 8 inches already on the ground in Bangor and 13 inches in Caribou, guaranteeing holiday snow. The White Mountains of New Hampshire expect 10 to 20+ inches, maintaining the region’s 97 percent historical probability. Vermont and New York’s mountain regions show moderate to high chances with 8 to 24 inches possible in favored locations, particularly in the Adirondacks and western New York lake-effect zones. Massachusetts has the lowest probability among these 14 states, with snow likely confined to the western Berkshire Mountains where depths may reach 5 inches maximum.

Record White Christmas Events and Historical Data US

Data Source: NOAA Historical Records, National Weather Service Historical Data, Minnesota State Climatology Office, New York City Weather Records, AccuWeather Historical Analysis

The historical record of white Christmas events in the United States reveals dramatic year-to-year variability in snow coverage, with the percentage of the country experiencing at least 1 inch of snow on December 25th ranging from as low as 16.7 percent to as high as 53 percent in just the past decade. The 2022 white Christmas stands as the most widespread in recent memory according to NOAA data tracking since 2012, when more than half the nation woke to snow-covered ground. This exceptional coverage resulted from a powerful winter storm system that moved through the central United States just before Christmas, depositing significant snowfall across the Plains, Midwest, and parts of the East, combined with pre-existing snowpack in northern and mountain regions. The frigid temperatures accompanying that storm system ensured the snow remained on the ground through Christmas morning, creating the classic holiday scenes many Americans envision.

In stark contrast, the 2023 white Christmas represented the least snowy Christmas in the modern record at only 16.7 percent coverage, demonstrating how quickly conditions can shift from one year to the next. The years 2017 and 2012 also featured widespread coverage at 49 percent and 51.1 percent respectively, establishing a pattern where highly snowy Christmases occur intermittently rather than in predictable cycles. Individual location records provide equally fascinating insights, such as New York City’s 2009 white Christmas, which was the first in 15 years when 2 inches remained from a storm that had deposited 10.8 inches on December 19-20. The heaviest Christmas Day snowfall in NYC history remains the 7 inches that fell on December 25, 1909, over a century ago. Chicago’s record Christmas Day snowfall of 5.1 inches occurred in 1950, while the city has experienced white Christmas conditions in eight years since 2000, most recently in 2022 and 2017. Northern Maine holds impressive snow depth records with Bangor recording 23 inches on the ground in 1970 and Caribou reporting an astounding 29 inches in 1989, demonstrating the extreme snowfall capabilities of this region. The historical average of 36 percent coverage since 2003 provides a useful baseline for understanding that approximately one-third of the nation typically experiences snow on Christmas, though individual years can deviate significantly from this norm.

Climate Change Impact on White Christmas Probability US

Climate change is steadily reducing the likelihood of a White Christmas across much of the United States. Updated 30-year climate normals (1991–2020) show subtle but consistent declines in Christmas Day snow cover compared with earlier baselines, particularly in the Midwest, Northeast, and lower elevations. Rising average winter temperatures mean snowfall is less frequent and snow that does fall is more likely to melt before December 25, lowering the persistence of ground snow cover that defines a traditional White Christmas.

In addition, December precipitation patterns are shifting, with a greater share falling as rain rather than snow. Warmer atmospheric conditions raise the freezing level, especially in mountainous regions, turning potential snow events into rain or mixed precipitation. While northern states and high-elevation areas still retain higher probabilities of a White Christmas, long-term warming trends documented by NOAA and other climate studies indicate that these chances will continue to decline in coming decades.

Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.

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