US Split-Ticket Voting in 2026 stayed near record lows: Decision Desk HQ forecast an average Senate-versus-governor margin gap of just over 6 points, down from 28 points in 1990. Texas voters on November 3 picked Democrats for both Senate and governor, so the cycle’s biggest split-ticket test ended in a sweep instead of a split.
US Split-Ticket Voting 2026 – Introduction
US Split-Ticket Voting happens when one voter backs candidates from two parties on the same ballot, such as a Democrat for Senate and a Republican for governor. For decades, that habit shaped American politics. A popular governor could win by 20 points while the Senate race in the same state stayed tight. In 2026, that gap has almost closed. 26 states held both a Senate and a governor race on November 3, which gave analysts the cleanest test of ticket-splitting in years.
This report tracks the latest numbers on US Split-Ticket Voting across Senate, House and governor contests. It uses forecasts from Decision Desk HQ, polling from state surveys, and election-night results published November 3 and 4, 2026. Some races were still being counted when this report was written, and the tables flag them. Every figure comes from a named source, and every table has a chart above it so you can see the pattern before you read the data.
Interesting Facts About US Split-Ticket Voting in 2026
SENATE-VS-GOVERNOR MARGIN GAP (percentage points)
1990 average | ████████████████████████████ 28
1990 median | █████████████████████████ 25
2022 median | ████████ 8
2026 average | ██████ 6+
2026 median | █████ 5
| Fact | Confirmed 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| States with both Senate and governor races | 26 |
| Senate elections on the 2026 ballot | 35 |
| Forecast average margin gap, Senate vs. governor | More than 6 points |
| Forecast median margin gap | 5 points |
| Average margin gap in 1990 | 28 points |
| Median margin gap in 2022 | About 8 points |
| Texas result, Senate and governor | Democrats won both |
| Last Texas Democratic Senate win before 2026 | 1988 |
| Last Texas Democratic governor before 2026 | 1990 |
| New Hampshire forecast, Pappas (Senate) and Ayotte (governor) | 84% and 72% |
Source: Decision Desk HQ forecast, as reported by The Hill and NewsNation; Texas Tribune and KUT election-night coverage, November 3, 2026.
The table shows a country that votes as a bloc. The 5-point median gap between Senate and governor races is a fraction of the 25-point median in 1990. Voters used to treat a governor as a local manager and a senator as a national vote. They now treat both offices as party signals. The 2022 median of about 8 points was already a record low, and the 2026 forecast pushed it lower.
Split results still happen, but they need special conditions. New Hampshire is the clearest case, where a Republican governor and a Democratic Senate nominee were both forecast to win. Texas shows the opposite risk for forecasters. Polls showed a closer governor race than Senate race, yet Democrats won both. Gaps in the polls did not turn into split tickets.
US Split-Ticket Voting 2026: How Many States Had Both a Senate and Governor Race?
2026 BALLOT FOOTPRINT (number of contests)
Senate elections | ███████████████████████████████████ 35
States with both races | ██████████████████████████ 26
Republican seats up | ██████████████████████ 22
Democratic seats up | █████████████ 13
| Measure | 2026 Count |
|---|---|
| Senate elections (including specials) | 35 |
| States with Senate and governor races | 26 |
| Republican-held Senate seats up | 22 |
| Democratic-held Senate seats up | 13 |
| Senate seats held by Republicans entering 2026 | 53 |
| Senate seats held by Democrats entering 2026 | 45 |
| Independents caucusing with Democrats | 2 |
Source: Split Ticket 2026 Senate model via 270toWin; Decision Desk HQ VOTES portal.
The count of 35 Senate elections includes special elections in Florida and Ohio. Only 26 states paired a Senate race with a governor race, so those states are the only places where a Senate-governor split could happen. In the other states, split-ticket voting could show up only between the Senate and the House, or between the ballot and the presidential result two years earlier.
Republicans entered 2026 with 53 seats and defended 22 of them, while Democrats held 45 seats plus 2 independents and defended 13. That imbalance made every split outcome matter. A single Democratic Senate win paired with a Republican governor would not change the map by itself, but it would show that crossover voters still decide close races. Election-night coverage from CNBC described a strong Democratic night in both chambers, so check final AP calls before you cite control of the Senate.
US Split-Ticket Voting Rate 2026 Compared With 1990 and 2022 Midterms
MEDIAN SENATE-GOVERNOR GAP BY MIDTERM
1990 | █████████████████████████ 25
2022 | ████████ 8
2026 | █████ 5 (forecast)
| Midterm Year | Average Gap (points) | Median Gap (points) |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 28 | 25 |
| 2022 | Not published in sources reviewed | About 8 |
| 2026 (forecast) | More than 6 | 5 |
Source: Decision Desk HQ analysis by Geoffrey Skelley, October 2026; FiveThirtyEight post-election analysis of 2022 results.
The gap measures how far apart the winning margins are in the Senate and governor races of one state. A big gap means many voters picked different parties for each office. In 1990, the average gap hit 28 points and the median hit 25 points. By 2022, FiveThirtyEight found a median of about 8 points, a new low for midterms between 1990 and 2022. Even then, about a quarter of Senate-governor pairs produced split outcomes.
The 2026 forecast cut the numbers again, to an average above 6 points and a median of 5 points. Those figures describe margins, not outcomes. A state can have a small gap and still split if both races are razor close, as New Hampshire’s forecast shows. Analysts also point to nationalized governor races. Voters now judge governors by party and by their stance on national fights, which pulls the two races together.
US Split-Ticket Voting 2026 Polls in Iowa, Ohio and Texas: Senate vs. Governor
POLL LEAD, SENATE vs GOVERNOR (points)
Iowa Senate (Turek, D) | ██ 2
Iowa Governor (Sand, D) | ███████████ 11
Ohio Senate (Husted, R) | ██████ 6
Ohio Governor (Acton, D) | █████ 5
Texas Senate (Talarico, D) | █████ 5
Texas Governor (Abbott, R) | ██ 2
| State | Senate Poll | Governor Poll | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Turek (D) +2 | Sand (D) +11 | 9 points |
| Ohio | Husted (R) +6 | Acton (D) +5 | Opposite parties |
| Texas | Talarico (D) +5 | Abbott (R) +2 | Opposite parties |
Source: Bloomberg Government polling roundup, October 2026; Decision Desk HQ.
Iowa showed the widest spread between the two races. Democratic auditor Rob Sand led Republican Zach Lahn by 11 points for governor, while Democrat Josh Turek led Republican Ashley Hinson by only 2 points for Senate. That 9-point gap suggested some Iowa voters would back a Democrat for governor and a Republican for Senate. Ohio posted a mirror image. Republican Jon Husted led the Senate race by 6 points, while Democrat Amy Acton led the governor race by 5 points over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy.
Texas looked like a split in the polls, with Democrat James Talarico up 5 points for Senate and Republican Greg Abbott up 2 points for governor. Election night broke that pattern. Talarico won, and Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated Abbott. The Texas result is a warning for anyone who reads a poll gap as a prediction of split-ticket voting. Late deciders broke the same way in both races, and no split occurred.
Texas Senate and Governor Results 2026: Did Texas Voters Split Their Tickets?
TEXAS STATEWIDE RESULTS, NOVEMBER 3, 2026
Senate winner | Talarico (D) ██████████████ Democratic flip
Governor winner | Hinojosa (D) ██████████████ Democratic flip
Split ticket? | No
| Race | Winner | Party Change | Streak Ended |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate | James Talarico (D) | R to D | Democrats’ losing streak since 1988 |
| Governor | Gina Hinojosa (D) | R to D | GOP control since the 1990s |
| Incumbent defeated | Greg Abbott (R) | Yes | Three decades of GOP governors |
Source: Texas Tribune and KUT election-night coverage; MultiState Elections results database, November 3, 2026.
Texas voters did not split their tickets at the top of the ballot. Talarico became the first Democrat to win a Texas Senate race since 1988. Hinojosa became the first Democrat elected governor since Ann Richards in 1990 and the first Latina to lead the state. CNBC reported that Elon Musk’s roughly $224 million in spending on Texas Republicans did not change the outcome.
The state’s history makes the result more striking. Abbott won reelection by roughly 13 points in 2018, while Republican Sen. Ted Cruz won by far less. That kind of gap used to signal a state where voters split between offices. In 2026, both races moved together and both flipped. Texas now stands as a data point for the shrinking gap, not for ticket-splitting.
New Hampshire Split-Ticket Voting 2026: Ayotte, Pappas and Survey Center Poll Numbers
NEW HAMPSHIRE SEPTEMBER 2026 SURVEY (% of respondents)
Same party, both races | █████████████████████████████████████ 73.4
Undecided/other/no vote | ██████████ 20.4
Implied split-ticket | ███ 6.2
| Measure | Result |
|---|---|
| Same party for Senate and governor | 73.4% |
| Undecided, other candidate, or not voting in one or both races | 20.4% |
| Implied split-ticket share (remainder) | 6.2% |
| Pappas (D) win probability, Senate | 84% |
| Ayotte (R) win probability, governor | 72% |
Source: University of New Hampshire Survey Center, September 2026; Decision Desk HQ forecast.
The University of New Hampshire poll shows how rare an openly split ballot is, even in the state analysts called almost certain to split. Only 73.4% of respondents backed the same party for both offices, and 20.4% were undecided, chose other candidates or skipped a race. The remaining 6.2% is our subtraction, not a number the survey published. It points to a small bloc of true ticket-splitters, which is all New Hampshire needs.
Decision Desk HQ gave Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte a 72% chance of winning and Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas an 84% chance of succeeding Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Those two probabilities put the state on a split path. Ayotte’s strength comes from voters who cross over for her while still backing Pappas, and that overlap is the entire story of US Split-Ticket Voting in the Granite State.
US House Split-Ticket Voting 2026: Crossover Districts Since 2020
HOUSE MEMBERS IN OPPOSITE-PARTY PRESIDENTIAL DISTRICTS
2020 Republicans in Biden seats | ████████████████ 16
2020 Democrats in Trump seats | ███████ 7
2024 Democrats in Trump seats | █████████████ 13
2024 Republicans in Harris seats| ███ 3
| Cycle | Republicans in Opposite-Party Districts | Democrats in Opposite-Party Districts |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 16 | 7 |
| 2024 | 3 | 13 |
Source: Cook Political Report district partisanship tallies, 2020 and 2024 cycles.
House ticket-splitting is easier to track through crossover districts, where a district votes one way for president and the other way for its House member. In 2020, 16 Republicans held seats that Joe Biden carried, and 7 Democrats held seats that Donald Trump carried. By 2024, the count of Republicans in Harris districts fell to 3, while Democrats in Trump districts stood at 13.
The numbers show crossover voting shrinking on one side and persisting on the other. The 2026 midterm tests whether those 13 Democrats can hold on, and whether any Republican in a Harris district survives. Each lost crossover seat removes a member who owes the district more than the party label. The remaining crossover members tend to win with local brands, which keeps the US Split-Ticket Voting pattern alive in House races.
US Presidential-Senate Split-Ticket Voting 2026 Context: 2016, 2020 and 2024
STATES SPLITTING PRESIDENT AND SENATE
2016 | 0
2020 | █████ 1 (Maine)
2024 | ████████████████████ 4 (AZ, NV, MI, WI)
| Election Year | States Splitting President and Senate | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0 | None |
| 2020 | 1 | Maine |
| 2024 | 4 | Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin |
Source: Cook Political Report and Ballotpedia federal election records; No Labels analysis of 2024 results.
Ticket-splitting hit bottom in 2016, when no state sent a Senate nominee from one party to Washington while backing the other party’s presidential candidate. 2020 brought a single case, Maine, where voters backed Joe Biden and Sen. Susan Collins. 2024 produced 4 states that split, a rebound that analysts cited as proof crossover voters still exist. That figure is roughly 12% of the states with both contests on the ballot, the highest share since 2012.
The 2024 rebound set the stage for 2026. Ruben Gallego won in Arizona while Trump carried the state, and similar splits showed up in Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin. Those voters now face a midterm without a presidential race, so their choices reflect views on the sitting president and on individual candidates. That mix keeps US Split-Ticket Voting alive in swing states even as the national gap narrows.
Kansas and Wisconsin Governor Ticket-Splitting 2026: Long-Run History
SPLIT PATTERNS IN TWO STATES
Kansas: GOP Senate wins since 1939 | ████████████████████ every cycle
Kansas: Dem governor wins since 1960s| ███████████████ majority
Wisconsin 2022 (Gov D / Sen R) | ██████████ split
Wisconsin 2024 (Sen D / Pres R) | ██████████ split
| State | Split Pattern | Years |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Democrats win governor; Republicans win Senate | Majority of years since late 1960s |
| Kansas | Senate held by Republicans exclusively | Since 1939 |
| Wisconsin | Democratic governor, Republican Senate | 2022 |
| Wisconsin | Democratic Senate, Republican president | 2024 |
Source: Ballotpedia and state election records for Kansas and Wisconsin governor races, 2026 cycle profiles.
Kansas has the longest tradition of governor-level ticket-splitting. Democrats have won the governor’s office in most years since the late 1960s, while Republicans have held every Senate seat since 1939. The 2026 governor’s race featured Democrat Cindy Holscher and Republican Ty Masterson, with Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly term-limited. Kansas was the only one of five Democratic-held governorships in Trump states where Trump won by double digits in 2024.
Wisconsin produced split results in two straight federal cycles. Democrats won the governor’s race and Republicans won the Senate race in 2022. Democrats won the Senate race while Republicans carried the presidential race in 2024. Gov. Tony Evers did not seek a third term in 2026, which opened the seat and removed a ticket-splitting anchor. Open seats tend to reduce crossover voting because no incumbent brand pulls voters across party lines.
US Split-Ticket Voting 2026 Examples: Georgia and Florida Statewide Results
STATEWIDE RESULTS REPORTED NOVEMBER 3-4, 2026
Georgia Senate | Ossoff (D) win
Florida Governor | Donalds (R) win
North Carolina Senate | Cooper (D) win, flip
| State | Race | Reported Winner | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | U.S. Senate | Jon Ossoff (D) | Polled stronger than the Democratic governor nominee |
| Florida | Governor | Byron Donalds (R) | Projected by AP |
| North Carolina | U.S. Senate | Roy Cooper (D) | First NC Democratic senator elected since 2008 |
Source: CNBC and Washington Post election-night coverage, November 3, 2026; Bloomberg Government polling roundup.
Georgia drew attention because Ossoff polled stronger against Republican Mike Collins than Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms polled against Republican Rick Jackson for governor. Ossoff won, according to CNBC’s live coverage. Georgia also split its statewide results in 2022, when Republican Brian Kemp won the governor’s race and Democrat Raphael Warnock won the Senate runoff. Check the final governor’s result before you publish any claim that Georgia split again.
Florida’s governor race went to Republican Byron Donalds, while Cooper’s North Carolina win flipped a Senate seat that Sen. Thom Tillis is leaving. The Washington Post called Cooper’s victory handy, which shows how a popular former governor can pull votes from both sides. Cooper’s win does not count as a split, because North Carolina had no governor’s race this cycle. It counts as proof that candidate strength still matters in a polarized electorate.
US Split-Ticket Voting Frequently Asked Questions 2026
What is US split-ticket voting?
US Split-Ticket Voting means a voter picks candidates from different parties for different offices on one ballot. A common example is a Democrat for Senate and a Republican for governor.
How common is split-ticket voting in 2026?
It is rare. Decision Desk HQ forecast an average margin gap of more than 6 points between Senate and governor races, down from 28 points in 1990.
Which states could split their tickets in 2026?
Decision Desk HQ named 7 states with the most potential, and New Hampshire led the list. Iowa, Ohio and Georgia also showed gaps between their Senate and governor polling.
Did Texas split its ticket in 2026?
No. Texans elected Democrat James Talarico to the Senate and Democrat Gina Hinojosa as governor.
How many states have both a Senate and governor race in 2026?
26 states held both races on November 3, 2026.
Why has split-ticket voting declined?
Party loyalty has strengthened over several decades. Governor races have also become more national, so voters apply the same party lens to every office.
Did split-ticket voting rebound in 2024?
Yes. 4 states split their presidential and Senate results in 2024, compared with 1 in 2020 and 0 in 2016.
What is a crossover district in the US House?
A crossover district votes for one party’s presidential candidate and the other party’s House member. In 2024, 13 Democrats held Trump districts and 3 Republicans held Harris districts.
Is a poll gap a reliable sign of split-ticket voting?
Not always. Texas polls showed Talarico up 5 and Abbott up 2, yet Democrats won both races.
Where can I find final 2026 election results?
The Associated Press, state election offices and the Decision Desk HQ VOTES portal publish certified and projected results as counting finishes.
Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.