Partial US Government Shutdown Statistics 2026 | Key Facts

Partial US Government Shutdown Statistics

Partial US Government Shutdown 2026

The partial US government shutdown that began at 12:01 AM on Saturday, January 31, 2026, represents the second funding lapse within Fiscal Year 2026, following the historic 43-day shutdown from October 1 through November 12, 2025—the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. This latest shutdown occurred when Congress failed to pass the remaining six of twelve appropriations bills by the January 30, 2026 deadline, affecting critical agencies including the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Department of Defense (DOD), Department of Labor, Health and Human Services (HHS), Department of Education, Department of Transportation, Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Financial Services and General Government, and the State Department. The Senate passed a revised funding package on Friday evening, January 30, separating out DHS for a two-week extension to negotiate Democratic demands for immigration enforcement restrictions, but the House of Representatives was not in session and will not return to Washington until Monday, February 2, 2026, meaning agencies without appropriations must implement shutdown procedures for at least the weekend.

The current funding crisis emerged from intense partisan divisions over Department of Homeland Security funding and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations, following the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti, an ICU nurse in Minneapolis, by federal agents on January 24, 2026. Senate Democrats vowed to block any funding package containing DHS appropriations without major reforms including requirements that ICE agents wear body cameras that must be turned on during operations and prohibitions on agents wearing masks during enforcement actions. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russell Vought instructed affected agencies on Friday that employees “should report to work for their next regularly scheduled tour of duty to undertake orderly shutdown activities,” while expressing hope that “this lapse will be short.” President Donald Trump endorsed the Senate compromise on Thursday, and House Speaker Mike Johnson committed to bringing the bill to a vote on Monday, suggesting this shutdown will likely last only 48-72 hours before funding is restored—far shorter than the 43-day shutdown that paralyzed the government at the start of Fiscal Year 2026.

Interesting Facts About Partial US Government Shutdown in the US 2026

Government Shutdown Fact January 2026 Statistics
Current Shutdown Start 12:01 AM Saturday, January 31, 2026
Funding Expiration Date January 30, 2026 at midnight
Senate Vote Time Friday evening, January 30 (hours before deadline)
House Return Date Monday, February 2, 2026
Expected Shutdown Duration 48-72 hours (weekend shutdown)
Number of Appropriations Bills Unfunded 6 of 12 bills remained without funding
Number of Appropriations Bills Funded 6 of 12 bills already passed (Agriculture, MilCon/VA, Legislative, Commerce-Justice-Science, Energy-Water, Interior-Environment)
Agencies Affected DHS, DOD, Labor, HHS, Education, Transportation, HUD, Financial Services, State Department
Previous FY2026 Shutdown October 1 – November 12, 2025 (43 days)
Historical Rank (October Shutdown) Longest government shutdown in U.S. history
Total Shutdowns Since 1981 14 government shutdowns (5 in past decade)
Economic Loss (October Shutdown) $7-14 billion permanent GDP loss (CBO estimate)
Federal Employees Affected (Oct Shutdown) Approximately 1.4 million workers (670,000 furloughed, 730,000 worked without pay)
Controversial Trigger Issue DHS/ICE funding and immigration enforcement practices
Alex Pretti Shooting Date January 24, 2026 (catalyst for Democratic opposition)
DHS Extension in Senate Deal 2 weeks to negotiate reforms
Democratic Reform Demands Body cameras for ICE agents, no masks during operations
President Trump’s Position Endorsed Senate compromise (Thursday, January 30)
House Speaker Position Mike Johnson committed to Monday vote

Data Source: U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, Office of Management and Budget, Congressional Budget Office, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget – January 2026

The January 31, 2026 partial government shutdown marks the second funding lapse within Fiscal Year 2026 and the 14th shutdown since 1981, continuing a troubling pattern of using government shutdowns as political leverage during budget negotiations. Unlike the October 2025 shutdown that resulted from broad disagreements over Affordable Care Act subsidies and overall budget priorities, this current shutdown centers narrowly on Department of Homeland Security funding and immigration enforcement policies, specifically the operations of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The fatal shooting of Alex Pretti—a 37-year-old ICU nurse who intervened in an ICE enforcement action in Minneapolis and was shot by federal agents on January 24—galvanized Senate Democrats to demand accountability measures before approving DHS funding, creating an impasse that Republicans initially resisted before agreeing to separate DHS from the broader spending package.

The Senate compromise passed late Friday evening involves funding five departments through the end of Fiscal Year 2026 (September 30) while extending Department of Homeland Security funding for only two weeks at current spending levels to allow negotiations on Democratic demands for reforms. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer outlined pillars of reform that Democrats would fight to enact, stating “the American people are crying out for change” in how ICE conducts enforcement operations. The deal required overcoming objections from Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who initially blocked fast-tracking the agreement but ultimately lifted his hold after receiving promises of future votes on his sanctuary cities legislation and controversial Arctic Frost provisions allowing members of Congress to sue if federal investigators access their phone records without notice. House Speaker Mike Johnson indicated on a Friday afternoon conference call that he supports the Senate-passed package and hopes the House will pass it Monday, though the 48-72 hour funding lapse remains unavoidable since the House is in recess until Monday.

Agencies Affected by Partial US Government Shutdown in the US 2026

Agency Shutdown Status Impact
Department of Homeland Security Shutdown (unfunded as of January 31) Border protection, immigration enforcement, TSA, Coast Guard, FEMA, Secret Service
Department of Defense Shutdown (unfunded as of January 31) Military operations, 1.3 million active duty personnel work without pay
Department of Labor Shutdown (unfunded as of January 31) Employment services, workplace safety, unemployment programs
Health and Human Services Shutdown (unfunded as of January 31) Medicare, Medicaid, CDC, FDA, NIH operations affected
Department of Education Shutdown (unfunded as of January 31) Federal student aid, school programs impacted
Department of Transportation Shutdown (unfunded as of January 31) FAA, highways, transit programs affected
Housing and Urban Development Shutdown (unfunded as of January 31) Public housing, homeless services, community development
Department of State Shutdown (unfunded as of January 31) Diplomatic operations, passport services, foreign aid
Financial Services/General Government Shutdown (unfunded as of January 31) IRS, Treasury operations, Small Business Administration
Department of Agriculture FULLY FUNDED through Sept 30, 2026 SNAP, farm programs, rural development continue
Military Construction/Veterans Affairs FULLY FUNDED through Sept 30, 2026 VA hospitals, benefits, military construction continue
Legislative Branch FULLY FUNDED through Sept 30, 2026 Congressional operations continue
Commerce-Justice-Science FULLY FUNDED through Sept 30, 2026 FBI, Justice Dept, NOAA, NASA, Census continue
Energy and Water Development FULLY FUNDED through Sept 30, 2026 DOE, nuclear security, Army Corps continue
Interior and Environment FULLY FUNDED through Sept 30, 2026 National Parks, EPA, BLM, Forest Service continue

Data Source: U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee, House Appropriations Committee, Office of Management and Budget – January 2026

The agencies affected by the January 31, 2026 partial government shutdown represent approximately half of the federal government, including some of the largest and most critical departments. The Department of Defense, with its 1.3 million active duty service members and hundreds of thousands of civilian employees, faces particular disruption as military personnel continue working to protect national security but will not receive paychecks until funding is restored. Military families already endured the 43-day shutdown from October through November 2025, during which service members missed multiple paychecks despite continuing their duties, creating financial hardship for many military households living paycheck-to-paycheck. The Department of Homeland Security, ironically the agency at the center of the funding dispute, must continue critical operations including Border Patrol agents, ICE enforcement, TSA airport screening, Coast Guard maritime operations, and Secret Service protective duties, though tens of thousands of employees will work without immediate compensation.

Health and Human Services, the largest civilian agency with responsibility for Medicare, Medicaid, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration, and the National Institutes of Health, faces significant operational disruptions despite many programs continuing under mandatory spending authorities. The FDA may delay inspections of food processing facilities and pharmaceutical manufacturing plants, while NIH research grants and new clinical trials could be suspended. The Department of Education shutdown affects administration of federal student aid programs serving over 40 million borrowers, though loan servicers continue processing payments under existing contracts. Transportation disruptions include potential delays in Federal Aviation Administration safety certifications and hiring of air traffic controllers, though essential personnel continue operating the national airspace system. The six agencies with full-year appropriations already enacted—including Agriculture (protecting SNAP benefits for over 40 million Americans), Veterans Affairs (ensuring continued operation of VA hospitals and benefits), and Commerce-Justice-Science (maintaining FBI operations and federal courts)—continue normal operations without any shutdown impact.

Federal Employee Impact in the US 2026

Employee Category Estimated Numbers Pay Status
Total Federal Civilian Employees Approximately 2.3 million nationwide Varies by agency funding status
Employees in Shutdown Agencies Estimated 800,000-1 million Furloughed or work without immediate pay
Essential/Excepted Employees Several hundred thousand Work without paychecks until funding restored
Furloughed Employees Estimated 300,000-500,000 Do not work, no pay during shutdown
Military Active Duty Personnel 1.3 million service members Continue duty, paychecks delayed
DOD Civilian Employees Approximately 700,000 civilians Majority considered essential
DHS Employees Approximately 260,000 employees Majority essential (Border Patrol, TSA, Coast Guard, Secret Service)
Border Patrol Agents Over 20,000 agents Work without pay (essential personnel)
TSA Screeners Approximately 50,000 screeners Work without pay (essential personnel)
Air Traffic Controllers Approximately 14,000 controllers Work without pay (essential personnel)
Employees in Funded Agencies Over 1 million employees Normal pay, unaffected by shutdown
VA Employees Approximately 400,000 employees Fully funded, normal operations
Expected Back Pay All furloughed and excepted employees Historical precedent for full back pay after shutdown
First Missed Paycheck Next pay period after shutdown Typically bi-weekly payroll cycles

Data Source: U.S. Office of Personnel Management, Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security, Congressional Research Service – January 2026

Federal employees working in shutdown-affected agencies face immediate financial uncertainty, though the expected 48-72 hour duration of this shutdown minimizes the hardship compared to the 43-day shutdown that spanned October-November 2025. During that prolonged shutdown, federal workers missed nearly 3 million paychecks totaling almost $14 billion in wages, forcing many employees to seek emergency loans, visit food banks, and fall behind on mortgages and rent. The Antideficiency Act prohibits federal agencies from obligating or expending funds in advance of or in excess of appropriations, meaning agencies cannot pay employees—even those performing essential duties—until Congress passes and the President signs funding legislation. “Essential” or “excepted” employees, including military personnel, Border Patrol agents, TSA screeners, air traffic controllers, federal law enforcement, and employees protecting life and property, must continue working despite the funding lapse, while “non-essential” employees are placed on furlough and prohibited from working.

The Department of Defense civilian workforce of approximately 700,000 employees represents the largest group of affected workers, with the majority classified as essential and required to continue supporting military operations, maintaining equipment, and providing critical services to the 1.3 million active duty service members. The Department of Homeland Security’s approximately 260,000 employees include tens of thousands of essential personnel such as 20,000+ Border Patrol agents, 50,000 TSA screeners, 42,000 Coast Guard active duty members, and Secret Service agents protecting the President and other officials—all of whom continue working without immediate pay during the shutdown. Historical precedent strongly suggests that Congress will approve back pay for both furloughed and excepted employees once funding is restored, as has occurred after every modern government shutdown, though the delay in receiving paychecks creates cash flow problems for many federal workers living paycheck-to-paycheck. The Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019 guarantees back pay for furloughed employees, ensuring they receive full compensation for the shutdown period even though they performed no work.

Economic Impact of Government Shutdowns in the US 2026

Economic Metric Impact Estimate Source
October 2025 Shutdown GDP Loss $7-14 billion permanent loss Congressional Budget Office
October Shutdown Q4 2025 Impact -1.5 percentage points GDP growth reduction CBO estimate
October Shutdown Q1 2026 Rebound +2.2 percentage points GDP growth increase CBO estimate (most losses recovered)
Daily Cost of Furloughs (Oct) Approximately $400 million per day CBO estimate
Total Missed Federal Paychecks (Oct) Nearly 3 million paychecks Federal employee payroll data
Total Missing Wages (Oct) Almost $14 billion in unpaid wages Calculated from furlough data
Business Disruption Significant for federal contractors Delayed payments, project interruptions
Private Sector Loan Impact Reduced access to SBA loans, FHA mortgages Lending disruptions during shutdown
Tourism Impact Closed national parks, Smithsonian museums Lost revenue for gateway communities
Local Economy Impact (DC Area) 50% revenue decline for businesses near federal offices October shutdown data
Federal Contractor Impact Hundreds of thousands affected Work stoppages, delayed payments
Small Business Impact SBA loan processing stopped New loans and disaster assistance delayed
Tax Processing Delays IRS furloughs delay refunds, audits If shutdown extends into tax season
Expected January Shutdown Cost $200-400 million (if 48-72 hours) Based on pro-rated CBO estimates

Data Source: Congressional Budget Office, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget – January 2026

The economic impact of government shutdowns extends far beyond the federal payroll, rippling through the broader economy and affecting millions of Americans who depend on government services, federal contracts, or economic activity generated by federal employees. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the 43-day shutdown from October 1 through November 12, 2025 would result in $7-14 billion in permanent economic losses—representing economic activity that can never be recovered even after the government reopens. During the fourth quarter of 2025, the shutdown reduced real gross domestic product (GDP) growth by approximately 1.5 percentage points at an annual rate, though most of this loss rebounded in the first quarter of 2026 once appropriations were restored and delayed spending occurred, resulting in a +2.2 percentage point boost to Q1 2026 GDP growth. However, some economic activity—particularly discretionary consumer spending by furloughed workers and delayed business investments affected by uncertainty—represented permanent losses to the economy.

Federal contractors bear significant economic burden during government shutdowns, often without the guarantee of back pay that protects federal employees. Hundreds of thousands of contract workers supporting federal agencies through janitorial services, food service, security, IT support, administrative services, and specialized professional services face immediate work stoppages when agencies shut down, with many contractors forced to furlough or lay off employees without compensation. Unlike direct federal employees who historically receive full back pay after shutdowns end, contractors typically cannot recover lost revenue or pay affected workers for the shutdown period, making each funding lapse a direct financial loss for these businesses and their employees. Small businesses face particular hardship when the Small Business Administration shuts down, halting processing of new SBA loans and disaster assistance applications during the funding lapse. Real estate markets experience disruptions when the Federal Housing Administration and VA home loan programs cannot process new mortgage applications, potentially delaying home purchases and refinancing transactions. The tourism industry in communities near national parks and Smithsonian museums loses substantial revenue when these attractions close during shutdowns, with gateway communities reporting significant declines in visitor spending.

Historical Context of US Government Shutdowns in the US 2026

Shutdown Period Duration Key Issues
October 1 – November 12, 2025 43 days Longest shutdown in history; ACA subsidies dispute
January 31 – February 2, 2026 (current) 48-72 hours (expected) DHS/ICE funding, immigration enforcement reforms
December 2018 – January 2019 35 days Border wall funding dispute (previous record)
January 20-22, 2018 3 days DACA protections, immigration policy
January 2018 69 hours CHIP funding, immigration
October 2013 16 days Affordable Care Act implementation
Total Shutdowns Since 1977 21 funding gaps Modern budget era
Total Shutdowns Since 1981 14 shutdowns Continuous government operations impacted
Shutdowns in Past Decade 5 shutdowns Increasing frequency and duration
Trump Administration Shutdowns 3 shutdowns Including 2 longest in history (35 days, 43 days)
Shortest Modern Shutdown Several hours Various brief lapses
Average Shutdown Duration Approximately 3-8 days Excluding October 2025 outlier

Data Source: Congressional Research Service, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, U.S. Senate Historical Office – January 2026

Government shutdowns have become an increasingly common feature of American governance, with 21 funding gaps occurring since 1977 when the modern congressional budget process was established, including 14 shutdowns since 1981 that resulted in actual furloughs and service disruptions. The frequency of shutdowns has accelerated in recent years, with five shutdowns occurring in the past decade alone, suggesting that using government funding as leverage in political negotiations has become normalized rather than exceptional. The Trump administration has presided over three government shutdowns during its two non-consecutive terms, including the two longest shutdowns in American history—the 35-day shutdown over border wall funding from December 2018 through January 2019 and the record-breaking 43-day shutdown over Affordable Care Act subsidies from October 1 through November 12, 2025.

Prior to the 2025 shutdown, the 16-day October 2013 shutdown during the Obama administration over Affordable Care Act implementation represented a significant political crisis, furloughing approximately 850,000 federal workers and reducing fourth-quarter GDP growth by an estimated 0.3 percentage points. Earlier shutdowns in the 1980s and 1990s tended to be shorter, often lasting only a few days or in some cases mere hours as Congress and the President quickly reached compromises to restore funding. The 21-day shutdown in December 1995 through January 1996 during the Clinton administration, driven by budget disagreements between President Clinton and the Republican-controlled Congress led by Speaker Newt Gingrich, stood as the longest shutdown until the 2018-2019 funding lapse surpassed it. The increasing length of recent shutdowns—with three of the four longest shutdowns all occurring within the past eight years—suggests that political polarization and partisan brinkmanship have made budget compromises increasingly difficult to achieve.

Agencies with Full-Year Funding in the US 2026

Funded Agency/Program Appropriation Status Services Continuing
Department of Agriculture Full-year funding through Sept 30, 2026 SNAP benefits, farm programs, rural development, food safety
SNAP (Food Assistance) Fully funded Over 40 million Americans continue receiving benefits
Military Construction/Veterans Affairs Full-year funding through Sept 30, 2026 VA hospitals, disability benefits, education benefits, pensions
VA Health Care Fully funded 9 million veterans receive care at 170+ VA hospitals
VA Disability Benefits Fully funded Monthly payments to 5+ million disabled veterans
Legislative Branch Full-year funding through Sept 30, 2026 Congress, GAO, Library of Congress continue operations
Commerce-Justice-Science Full-year funding through Sept 30, 2026 FBI, federal courts, NOAA, NASA, Census Bureau
FBI Operations Fully funded Criminal investigations, national security operations continue
Federal Courts Fully funded Federal judiciary continues operations
NASA Fully funded Space operations, research continue
Energy and Water Development Full-year funding through Sept 30, 2026 DOE, nuclear security, Army Corps of Engineers
Nuclear Security Fully funded National nuclear weapons complex continues
Interior and Environment Full-year funding through Sept 30, 2026 National Parks, EPA, BLM, Indian Health Service
National Park Service Fully funded 423 national park units remain open
EPA Fully funded Environmental protection, Superfund cleanup continue

Data Source: U.S. House and Senate Appropriations Committees, Office of Management and Budget, Department of Veterans Affairs – January 2026

The six appropriations bills that received full-year funding before the January 30 deadline ensure that many critical government services continue without disruption during the partial shutdown. The Department of Agriculture appropriation protects the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which serves over 40 million low-income Americans with monthly food assistance averaging $195 per person in 2026, ensuring that grocery benefits continue uninterrupted during the funding lapse. Farm programs including crop insurance, conservation programs, and agricultural research also continue normally, protecting the 2 million American farmers who depend on USDA services and preventing disruption to the nation’s food supply chain. The Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) nutrition program, serving approximately 6 million mothers and young children, operates under mandatory spending and continues regardless of annual appropriations status.

Veterans Affairs receives particular attention during appropriations battles due to the political sensitivity of disrupting services to the nation’s 18 million veterans. The full-year funding for Military Construction and Veterans Affairs ensures that VA health care continues uninterrupted at over 170 VA medical centers and 1,000+ outpatient sites serving approximately 9 million enrolled veterans annually. Disability compensation payments to over 5 million disabled veterans, pension benefits to elderly and low-income wartime veterans, and GI Bill education benefits supporting hundreds of thousands of student veterans all continue without delay. Military construction projects including new barracks, family housing, and critical infrastructure improvements at domestic and overseas military installations proceed on schedule. The Commerce-Justice-Science appropriation funds the Federal Bureau of Investigation, ensuring that 38,000 FBI employees including 13,700 special agents continue criminal investigations, counterterrorism operations, and cyber threat mitigation. Federal courts remain fully operational, ensuring the judiciary can conduct trials, issue rulings, and maintain the rule of law despite the shutdown affecting executive branch agencies.

Congressional Negotiations and Political Dynamics in the US 2026

Political Position Key Players Demands/Positions
Senate Democratic Leadership Chuck Schumer (Minority Leader) Separate DHS funding; reform ICE practices
Democratic Reform Demands Progressive and moderate Democrats ICE body cameras (turned on); no masks; oversight
Senate Republican Leadership John Thune (Majority Leader) Support Trump position; avoid extended shutdown
Republican Objector Lindsey Graham (SC) Sanctuary cities vote; Arctic Frost provisions; support ICE
Senate Compromise Bipartisan negotiators 5 bills full-year funding; DHS 2-week extension
House Republican Leadership Mike Johnson (Speaker) Support Trump; pass Senate bill Monday
President Trump Position Endorsed Thursday, January 30 Back Senate compromise; quick resolution
House Democratic Leadership Hakeem Jeffries (Minority Leader) Support ICE reforms; unclear on timing
White House/OMB Russell Vought (OMB Director) Hope for short shutdown; orderly shutdown procedures
Timeline Senate Friday vote; House Monday vote 48-72 hour shutdown expected
DHS Funding Extension 2 weeks (through mid-February) Negotiate body cameras, oversight, accountability
Catalyst Event Alex Pretti shooting (Jan 24) Minneapolis ICE enforcement, federal agent shooting

Data Source: U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, White House Statements, Congressional News Reports – January 2026

The Congressional negotiations surrounding the January 31, 2026 partial shutdown illustrate the complex political dynamics and partisan divisions that characterize modern budget battles. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and his Democratic caucus drew a clear line following the January 24 shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, vowing to block any funding package that included Department of Homeland Security appropriations without major reforms to ICE enforcement practices. Democratic demands centered on accountability measures including mandatory body cameras for all ICE agents that must remain activated during enforcement operations, prohibitions on agents wearing masks to conceal their identities during arrests, enhanced oversight of enforcement actions, and restrictions on certain aggressive tactics that Democrats characterize as creating an “domestic army” rather than a professional immigration enforcement agency. Senator Bernie Sanders articulated this position during Senate debate, arguing “When you give ICE that huge amount of money, you are not talking about an agency for immigration and customs enforcement, you are talking about a domestic army… We don’t need a domestic army in America to terrorize people.”

Republican resistance to separating DHS from the broader funding package initially created an impasse, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune expressing concern that the compressed timeline left insufficient time to negotiate a bipartisan agreement and execute Senate procedures even if consensus emerged. Senator Lindsey Graham emerged as the most vocal Republican objector, initially blocking the fast-tracking of the Senate compromise and demanding concessions including a future vote on his sanctuary cities legislation (which would penalize jurisdictions that limit cooperation with federal immigration enforcement) and preservation of controversial Arctic Frost provisions allowing members of Congress to sue the government if investigators access their phone records without notice. Graham eventually lifted his objections Friday afternoon after Majority Leader Thune promised votes on Graham’s priorities, allowing the Senate to pass the five-bill package with the two-week DHS extension hours before the midnight deadline. President Trump’s endorsement of the Senate compromise on Thursday proved crucial to securing Republican support, with House Speaker Mike Johnson committing to back the deal and bring it to a Monday vote once Trump signaled his approval.

Impact on Government Services in the US 2026

Service Category Shutdown Impact Public Effect
National Security/Defense Active military continues; civilian support disrupted Delayed maintenance, training, acquisitions
Border Security Border Patrol, ICE work without pay Immigration enforcement continues
Airport Security TSA screeners work without pay Potential for increased sick-outs, longer lines
Air Traffic Control Controllers work without pay Flight safety maintained but morale issues
Veterans Health Care FULLY FUNDED – no disruption VA hospitals, clinics operate normally
Social Security Mandatory spending – payments continue Benefits unaffected
Medicare/Medicaid Mandatory spending – benefits continue Claims processing may slow
Food Assistance (SNAP) FULLY FUNDED – benefits continue Over 40 million recipients unaffected
Passport Services State Dept shutdown delays processing International travel plans disrupted
Federal Courts FULLY FUNDED – operate normally Civil and criminal cases proceed
National Parks FULLY FUNDED – remain open 423 parks accessible
IRS Tax Processing Reduced staff affects refunds, audits Tax season potentially impacted
Small Business Loans SBA shutdown halts new loans Business financing delayed
FHA/VA Home Loans Mortgage processing halted Home purchases delayed
Federal Contractors Work stoppages, payment delays Hundreds of thousands affected
Research Grants (NIH, NSF) New grants delayed; ongoing funded Scientific research continuity impacted

Data Source: Office of Personnel Management, Agency Contingency Plans, Congressional Research Service – January 2026

The impact on government services during the January 31, 2026 shutdown varies dramatically depending on whether programs operate under annual discretionary appropriations or mandatory spending authorities, and whether agency employees are classified as essential or non-essential. Social Security and Medicare benefits continue uninterrupted because these programs operate under mandatory spending authorities that do not require annual appropriations, ensuring that approximately 67 million Social Security beneficiaries and 65 million Medicare enrollees continue receiving benefits and health coverage. However, Social Security Administration customer service may be reduced as non-essential employees are furloughed, potentially lengthening wait times for phone assistance and delaying resolution of benefit disputes. Veterans benefits remain fully protected through the full-year Military Construction and Veterans Affairs appropriation passed in November 2025, ensuring 9 million veterans continue receiving health care at VA facilities and 5+ million disabled veterans receive monthly disability compensation without interruption.

National security and public safety functions continue during shutdowns with essential personnel working without immediate pay. The nation’s 1.3 million active duty military personnel remain on duty protecting American interests worldwide, though their paychecks are delayed until funding is restored, creating hardship for military families. Border Patrol’s 20,000+ agents continue securing the southwest border, TSA’s 50,000 screeners maintain airport security checkpoints, 14,000 air traffic controllers ensure safe flight operations, and FBI agents pursue criminal investigations and counterterrorism operations—all without receiving paychecks during the shutdown. Historical experience from previous shutdowns shows that TSA screeners facing financial pressure sometimes call in sick at higher rates, potentially leading to longer security lines and flight delays at major airports. Federal courts benefit from full-year Commerce-Justice-Science appropriations and continue normal operations, ensuring civil and criminal cases proceed on schedule without shutdown-related delays or postponements.

Future Government Funding Outlook in the US 2026

Upcoming Deadline Date Funding Status
DHS Funding Deadline Mid-February 2026 2-week extension from Senate deal
Five Departments Full-Year September 30, 2026 Defense, Labor-HHS-Education, Transportation-HUD, State-Foreign Ops, Financial Services
Fiscal Year 2027 Budget Request First Monday of February President submits FY2027 budget proposal
Budget Resolution Deadline April 15, 2026 Congress statutory deadline (often missed)
Fiscal Year 2027 Start October 1, 2026 FY2027 appropriations must be enacted
Potential CR Extensions March-April 2026 If DHS negotiations extend beyond 2 weeks
Next Shutdown Risk Mid-February or October 2026 Depending on DHS negotiations and FY2027 process
Debt Ceiling TBD 2026 Separate but related fiscal crisis potential

Data Source: Congressional Budget Office, House Budget Committee, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget – January 2026

The future government funding outlook for 2026 suggests that shutdown risks will remain elevated throughout the year as Congress grapples with both completing Fiscal Year 2026 appropriations and beginning the FY 2027 budget cycle. The two-week extension for Department of Homeland Security funding creates an immediate mid-February deadline for negotiating Democratic demands for ICE reforms, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledging that reaching a bipartisan agreement on such politically charged issues will be “really, really hard” even with additional time. If negotiations deadlock beyond the two-week window, Congress may be forced to enact another short-term continuing resolution for DHS, potentially extending the shutdown risk into March or April 2026 and consuming legislative time needed for other priorities. The five departments receiving full-year funding through the weekend Senate deal—Defense, Labor-HHS-Education, Transportation-HUD, State-Foreign Operations, and Financial Services—enjoy budget certainty through September 30, 2026, eliminating shutdown risk for these agencies for the remainder of FY 2026.

The Fiscal Year 2027 budget cycle formally begins in early February 2026 when President Trump submits his budget request to Congress, setting in motion the annual appropriations process that must be completed by October 1, 2026 to avoid another government shutdown at the start of FY 2027. The statutory deadline of April 15 for Congress to pass a budget resolution—establishing overall spending levels and budget priorities—is routinely missed and serves primarily as a procedural milestone rather than a hard deadline. Given the contentious negotiations over FY 2026 funding that produced two shutdowns within the same fiscal year, prospects for completing all twelve FY 2027 appropriations bills before the October 1 start of the new fiscal year appear dim, suggesting high probability of beginning FY 2027 under a continuing resolution or facing yet another shutdown. Legislative proposals such as the Prevent Government Shutdowns Act introduced by Representatives Jodey Arrington (R-TX) and Jimmy Panetta (D-CA) would establish an automatic continuing resolution mechanism to prevent shutdowns, though such reforms have not gained sufficient support for enactment.

Public and Economic Reaction to Shutdowns in the US 2026

Reaction Category Impact Measurement
Stock Market Response Mixed reaction to shutdown fears S&P 500 declined 0.13% on Thursday
Consumer Confidence Reduced during prolonged shutdowns October shutdown impacted holiday spending
Federal Employee Morale Significantly negative Survey data shows declining engagement
Public Opinion Generally opposes shutdowns Majority blames party refusing compromise
Business Planning Increased uncertainty Delayed investments, hiring decisions
Federal Contractor Impact Severe for small businesses Cash flow crises, potential bankruptcies
Tourism Industry Partially mitigated (parks funded) National Parks remain open unlike October
Local Economies (Federal Hubs) Washington DC area affected Reduced spending by furloughed workers
Legislative Proposals Auto-CR bills proposed Prevent Government Shutdowns Act
Shutdown Fatigue Public and political exhaustion Second FY2026 shutdown in 4 months
Media Coverage Extensive national attention Focus on ICE controversy, DHS funding

Data Source: Stock market data, polling organizations, business surveys, news reports – January 2026

Public and economic reaction to the January 2026 shutdown reflects a combination of shutdown fatigue following the 43-day funding lapse just 10 weeks earlier and frustration that Congress cannot complete basic governing functions like passing budgets on time. Stock markets showed muted response to the looming shutdown, with the S&P 500 declining only 0.13% on Thursday as investors appeared confident the funding lapse would be brief, though the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.72% driven primarily by Microsoft’s nearly 10% plunge on disappointing earnings rather than shutdown concerns. Business leaders express increasing frustration with repeated budget crises and shutdowns, citing the uncertainty as a drag on investment decisions, hiring plans, and long-term strategic planning, particularly for companies heavily dependent on federal contracts or operating in industries requiring federal licenses, permits, or regulatory approvals. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has called for budget process reforms to prevent shutdowns, arguing that the dysfunction damages America’s economic competitiveness and creditworthiness.

Federal employees report declining morale and job satisfaction after enduring two shutdowns within Fiscal Year 2026, with many expressing anger that their work is devalued and their financial security is sacrificed for political messaging. Over 300,000 federal employees left government service during 2025, though most departed through voluntary retirement incentives and buyout programs rather than involuntary layoffs, suggesting that workforce reductions sought by the administration are achievable without controversial forced separations. Employee advocacy groups including the National Treasury Employees Union and American Federation of Government Employees continue pressuring Congress to pass automatic continuing resolution legislation that would prevent shutdowns, arguing that using federal employees as political pawns undermines government effectiveness and makes federal service less attractive to talented professionals. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has endorsed proposals like the Prevent Government Shutdowns Act, which would automatically continue funding at prior-year levels if Congress fails to pass appropriations by the start of the fiscal year, removing the threat of shutdowns while still incentivizing lawmakers to complete the appropriations process through mechanisms such as prohibiting congressional recesses and restricting legislative business until appropriations are enacted.

Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.