Population of Northern Ireland 2026
Northern Ireland’s population has entered a genuinely pivotal demographic phase, continuing to grow steadily even as the forces driving that growth shift dramatically. Where births and natural increase once carried most of the weight, international migration has now firmly overtaken births and deaths as the dominant factor behind the country’s expanding population, a change with real implications for schools, housing, healthcare, and the labour market over the coming decades.
This report compiles the latest Northern Ireland population statistics for 2026, covering total population figures, births, deaths, and migration trends, the country’s ageing population, and district-level variation across Belfast and the ten other local government districts. Whether you’re researching Northern Ireland’s demographic trajectory, comparing it with the rest of the UK and Ireland, or simply looking for a clear, current snapshot of the numbers, this article lays out the fullest picture available using the most recent official data.
Interesting Facts About Northern Ireland’s Population in 2026
| Interesting Fact | Data (Mid-2024, Latest Available) |
|---|---|
| Northern Ireland’s Total Population (30 June 2024) | 1,927,900 — the highest ever recorded |
| Annual Population Growth (Mid-2023 to Mid-2024) | +7,500 people (0.4%) |
| Population Growth From Net Migration | +5,800 people |
| Population Growth From Natural Change (Births Minus Deaths) | +1,900 people |
| People Who Moved to Northern Ireland (Year to Mid-2024) | 28,200 |
| People Who Left Northern Ireland (Year to Mid-2024) | 22,500 |
| Population Aged 65 and Over | 18.1%, up from 13.1% in 1999 |
| National Median Age | 40.3 years, up from 32.0 years in 1994 |
| Projected Population Peak | 1.94 million by 2031, before gradually declining |
| Births Registered, Q4 2025 | 4,576 — continuing a downward trend |
| Largest Local Government District (Population) | Belfast, at 345,418 people |
| Youngest District by Median Age | Belfast, at 36.4 years |
Source: Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), Mid-Year Population Estimates 2024 and Vital Statistics, Quarter 4 2025.
As a content writer analyzing this data, the clearest theme in Northern Ireland’s 2026 population statistics is the decisive shift toward migration as the primary engine of growth. In the year to mid-2024, net migration contributed 5,800 people to the population, more than three times the 1,900 people added through natural change — a reversal of the historical pattern where births reliably outpaced deaths by a wide margin. With 28,200 people arriving and just 22,500 leaving, Northern Ireland’s population growth increasingly depends on its ability to continue attracting new residents from both the rest of the UK and internationally.
The second major theme is the accelerating pace of population ageing. The share of residents aged 65 and over climbed from 13.1% in 1999 to 18.1% by 2024, while the national median age rose from just 32.0 years in 1994 to 40.3 years three decades later — an increase of over eight years. With births continuing their decade-long downward trend, falling to just 4,576 registered in the final quarter of 2025, and deaths projected to exceed births nationally by around 2031, Northern Ireland’s demographic profile is shifting in ways that closely mirror trends seen across most of Western Europe, even as its overall population keeps climbing for now.
Population Growth and Components of Change Northern Ireland 2026
| Metric | Year to Mid-2024 |
|---|---|
| Total Population Change | +7,500 (0.4%) |
| Births | 19,800 |
| Deaths | 17,900 |
| Natural Change | +1,900 |
| International Arrivals | 16,900 |
| International Departures | 10,900 |
| Net International Migration | +6,000 |
| Net Migration to/from Rest of UK and Ireland | -200 |
| Other Adjustments (e.g., Armed Forces Movements) | -200 |
Source: Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), Mid-Year Population Estimates for Northern Ireland, published September 2025.
Northern Ireland’s population reached 1,927,900 as of 30 June 2024, growing by 7,500 people, or 0.4%, over the preceding twelve months. Breaking this growth down by component reveals just how central international migration has become: 16,900 people arrived from outside the UK while only 10,900 departed, generating a net international migration gain of 6,000 — comfortably the single largest contributor to overall population growth. This was partially offset by a small net loss to the rest of the UK and Ireland, and a modest downward adjustment linked to armed forces movements.
Natural change, meanwhile, added a comparatively modest 1,900 people, the result of 19,800 births against 17,900 deaths. This roughly 3-to-1 ratio of migration-driven growth to natural growth represents a structural shift for Northern Ireland, which historically relied on higher birth rates than the rest of the UK to sustain population growth. With births continuing to decline and deaths gradually rising as the population ages, NISRA’s own projections anticipate that deaths will overtake births nationally by around 2031, making continued net migration essential to any further population growth beyond that point.
Northern Ireland’s Ageing Population Statistics 2026
| Age Indicator | 1999/1994 Figure | 2024 Figure |
|---|---|---|
| Population Aged 65 and Over | 13.1% (1999) | 18.1% |
| Population Aged 0-15 | 24.3% (1999) | 20.0% |
| National Median Age | 32.0 years (1994) | 40.3 years |
| Number Aged 65+ (Mid-2023 to Mid-2024 Change) | 342,500 | 349,200 (+2.0%) |
| Under-10 Population (1971 vs. 2024) | Considerably higher in 1971 | 230,000 (down 28% since 1971) |
| Population Aged 70+ (2024, For Comparison) | — | 247,000 — now exceeds the under-10 population |
| Projected Median Age by 2047-2049 | — | 41.3 years |
Source: Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), Mid-Year Population Estimates 2024; National Population Projections, 2024-based.
Northern Ireland’s population has aged significantly and steadily over the past three decades, with the median age climbing from 32.0 years in 1994 to 40.3 years in 2024 — a rise of more than eight years within a single generation. The share of residents aged 65 and over grew from 13.1% in 1999 to 18.1% in 2024, even as the proportion of children aged 0-15 fell from 24.3% to 20.0% over the same period, a classic pattern of demographic ageing seen across most developed economies.
Perhaps the starkest illustration of this shift: Northern Ireland’s population aged 70 and over (247,000 people) now exceeds its under-10 population (230,000) for the first time, a genuine milestone given that in 1971, there were three times as many children under 10 as people aged 70 and over. With NISRA’s latest projections anticipating the median age will continue climbing toward 41.3 years in the decades ahead, this ageing trend shows no sign of reversing, placing growing pressure on health and social care services even as the working-age population that funds them grows more slowly.
Births and Deaths Statistics Northern Ireland 2026
| Vital Statistics Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Births Registered, Q4 2025 | 4,576 |
| Total Births, 2024 (Full Year) | 19,416 |
| Total Births, 1964 (For Historical Comparison) | 34,345 |
| Marriages Registered, Q4 2025 | 1,470 |
| Civil Partnerships Registered, Q4 2025 | 21 |
| Projected Annual Births by Mid-2035 (Low Point) | 17,900 — an 11.0% decrease from mid-2022 |
| Excess Deaths, Q4 2025 (Relative to Expected) | -399 (fewer deaths than expected) |
Source: Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), Registrar General Quarterly Report, Quarter 4 2025.
Birth rates in Northern Ireland have been in sustained decline for over a decade, with the 19,416 births recorded in 2024 representing a steep fall from 34,345 births in 1964 — a decline of more than 43% even as the overall population has grown substantially over the same sixty-year period. NISRA’s own projections anticipate this decline will continue, forecasting annual births will bottom out at around 17,900 by mid-2035, an 11% decrease from 2022 levels, before a modest partial recovery in subsequent years.
On the marriage front, 1,470 marriages and 21 civil partnerships were registered in the final quarter of 2025 alone, continuing patterns broadly consistent with recent years. Notably, mortality data for the same quarter showed 399 fewer deaths than statistically expected, a modestly positive signal, though NISRA’s longer-term analysis continues to show death rates rising sharply with age — ranging from under 1 per 1,000 for younger age groups up to 250.63 per 1,000 for those aged 90 and over, underscoring how heavily Northern Ireland’s ageing population will shape future mortality trends.
District-Level Population Statistics Northern Ireland 2026
| Local Government District | Key Statistic |
|---|---|
| Belfast | Largest population (345,418); youngest median age (36.4 years); highest population density (2,617 per km²) |
| Ards and North Down | Oldest population profile: 23% aged 65+; highest median age (45.2-45.3 years) |
| Mid Ulster | Highest proportion of children: 22.7-22.9% aged 0-15 |
| Fermanagh and Omagh | Lowest population (116,812); lowest population density (41 per km²); greatest land area |
| Botanic (Belfast District Electoral Area) | Most population-dense DEA nationally: 4,653 people per km²; largest student population |
| All 11 Districts | Population grew in every district in the most recent estimates |
Source: Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), 2023 and 2024 Mid-Year Population Estimates for Local Government Districts.
Population growth and age structure vary considerably across Northern Ireland’s eleven local government districts. Belfast remains both the largest district by population (345,418) and the youngest by median age (36.4 years), reflecting its role as the country’s primary economic and educational hub, home to Queen’s University and much of the region’s student population. By contrast, Ards and North Down has the oldest population profile of any district, with 23% of residents aged 65 or older and the highest median age nationally at over 45 years.
Mid Ulster stands out for the opposite reason, recording the highest proportion of children of any district at nearly 23%, while Fermanagh and Omagh remains Northern Ireland’s most sparsely populated district, with just 41 people per square kilometre spread across its extensive rural land area — a stark contrast to Belfast’s Botanic district electoral area, which packs over 4,650 people per square kilometre into the heart of the city. Encouragingly for regional development, the most recent estimates show population growth occurring across all eleven districts simultaneously, suggesting Northern Ireland’s population expansion is not confined solely to Belfast and its immediate surroundings.
Population Projections Northern Ireland 2026-2047
| Projection Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Projected Population Peak | 1.94 million by 2031 |
| Projected Population Trend After 2031 | Gradual decline |
| Projected Population Growth, 2022-2047 (25 Years) | +21,400 (1.1%) |
| Population Growth, 1997-2022 (Previous 25 Years, For Comparison) | +239,300 (14.3%) |
| Long-Term Net International Migration Assumption | +3,000 people annually |
| Point When Deaths Are Projected to Exceed Births | Around 2031 |
| Recent 5-Year Average Net International Migration | +2,600 people annually |
| Recent 5-Year Average Net Loss to Rest of UK | -1,100 people annually |
Source: Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), 2022-based and 2024-based National Population Projections.
NISRA’s official projections anticipate that Northern Ireland’s population will peak at approximately 1.94 million around 2031, before entering a period of gradual decline as the number of deaths begins to consistently exceed the number of births. This represents a dramatic slowdown compared to recent historical trends: population growth over the 25 years from 2022 to 2047 is projected at just 1.1% (21,400 people), a fraction of the 14.3% growth (239,300 people) recorded over the previous 25-year period from 1997 to 2022.
This slower future growth trajectory rests heavily on continued net international migration, which NISRA’s long-term assumptions project at 3,000 people annually, broadly consistent with the 2,600 average recorded over the past five years. Notably, these same projections assume Northern Ireland will continue experiencing a modest net outflow to the rest of the UK, averaging 1,100 people annually in recent years — meaning international migration isn’t just supplementing population growth, but actively offsetting a persistent, ongoing loss of residents to Great Britain, a pattern that has held steady across multiple projection cycles.
Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.