Inflation Under Trump vs Biden in the US: annual CPI inflation averaged 1.9% across Trump’s first term (2017–2020) and 4.9% across Biden’s four calendar years (2021–2024), with a peak of 8.0% in 2022. Calendar-year 2025 inflation was 2.7%, and the 12-month rate reached 3.7% in September 2026 after an energy price surge.
Inflation Under Trump vs Biden in the US 2026 – Introduction
Inflation Under Trump vs Biden is the question many US households ask when they look at grocery bills, rent, and gas prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the official answer through the Consumer Price Index, and the numbers split the decade into clear phases. Prices rose slowly from 2016 through 2020, jumped in 2021 and 2022, cooled through 2024, and climbed again in 2026 as energy costs surged. This report tracks each phase with annual, December-to-December, cumulative, and monthly data. Search interest spikes whenever a new CPI report lands, and the September 2026 release gave readers a fresh reason to compare the two presidents. A fair comparison needs the same measure, the same time frame, and the same source for every year, so this report uses CPI-U data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics throughout.
The comparison needs context. Annual average inflation reflects price changes that began before a president took office, and no president sets prices directly. Biden held office until January 20, 2025, so 2025 is a shared year. Trump’s second term runs through the latest reading, 3.7% for the 12 months ending September 2026. The tables below describe what happened in each period. They do not prove how much either president’s policies caused. Readers should separate three ideas: the level of prices, the rate of price growth, and the cause of that growth. This report covers the first two with hard numbers and treats the third with care.
Interesting Facts About Inflation Under Trump vs Biden in 2026
Key Inflation Under Trump vs Biden Facts
Trump first-term average 2017–2020 | ████████ 1.9%
Biden average 2021–2024 | ████████████████████ 4.9%
Trump highest year (2018) | ██████████ 2.4%
Biden highest year (2022) | ████████████████████████████████ 8.0%
Core CPI, September 2026 | ██████████ 2.6%
Headline CPI, September 2026 | ███████████████ 3.7%
| Metric | Confirmed Figure |
|---|---|
| Average annual inflation, Trump first term (2017–2020) | 1.9% |
| Average annual inflation, Biden term (2021–2024) | 4.9% |
| Gap between the two averages | 3.0 points |
| Highest annual rate under Trump’s first term (2018) | 2.4% |
| Highest annual rate under Biden (2022) | 8.0% |
| Peak 12-month rate of the decade (June 2022) | 9.1% |
| Total price increase, Jan 2017 to Jan 2021 / Jan 2021 to Jan 2025 | 7.7% / 21.4% |
| 12-month CPI-U inflation, September 2026 | 3.7% |
| Core CPI (excluding food and energy), September 2026 | 2.6% |
| Energy index, 12 months to September 2026 | 20.4% |
| Gasoline index, monthly change, September 2026 | 9.1% |
| Lowest / highest 12-month reading of 2026 (January / May) | 2.4% / 4.2% |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, annual average CPI-U and Consumer Price Index news release for September 2026, published October 14, 2026; averages, gaps, and totals calculated from BLS data.
The first six rows frame Inflation Under Trump vs Biden. Trump’s first four years averaged 1.9%, and Biden’s four calendar years averaged 4.9%, a gap of 3.0 points. Trump’s worst year reached 2.4% in 2018. Biden’s worst year reached 8.0% in 2022, and the 12-month rate peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. Prices rose 7.7% from January 2017 to January 2021 and 21.4% from January 2021 to January 2025, so the faster pace under Biden produced a much larger total increase.
The 2026 rows show what changed after that. The headline rate of 3.7% means the average basket cost 3.7% more in September 2026 than a year earlier. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, ran at only 2.6%, so the rise came from fuel. The energy index sat 20.4% above its year-earlier level, and gasoline jumped 9.1% in September alone. Inflation bottomed at 2.4% in January 2026 and peaked at 4.2% in May. Shoppers feel energy costs fast, because gas stations post new prices daily and utility bills follow within weeks.
Inflation Under Trump vs Biden by Year: US Annual Inflation Rate 2016–2026 Table
Annual Average CPI-U Inflation
2016 Obama | █████ 1.3%
2017 Trump | ████████ 2.1%
2018 Trump | ██████████ 2.4%
2019 Trump | ███████ 1.8%
2020 Trump | █████ 1.2%
2021 Biden | ███████████████████ 4.7%
2022 Biden | ████████████████████████████████ 8.0%
2023 Biden | ████████████████ 4.1%
2024 Biden | ████████████ 2.9%
2025 Trump | ███████████ 2.7%
| Year | President in Office for Most of the Year | Annual Inflation (CPI-U) |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Obama | 1.3% |
| 2017 | Trump | 2.1% |
| 2018 | Trump | 2.4% |
| 2019 | Trump | 1.8% |
| 2020 | Trump | 1.2% |
| 2021 | Biden | 4.7% |
| 2022 | Biden | 8.0% |
| 2023 | Biden | 4.1% |
| 2024 | Biden | 2.9% |
| 2025 | Trump | 2.7% |
| 2026 (January–September) | Trump | 3.3% (average of the nine monthly readings so far) |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, annual average CPI-U; 2026 average calculated from BLS monthly 12-month readings.
Inflation Under Trump vs Biden starts with 2016, when inflation sat at 1.3% under Obama. Trump’s first four years ran between 1.2% and 2.4%. The high came in 2018 at 2.4%, and the low came in 2020 at 1.2%, when the pandemic crushed demand. The 2019 rate of 1.8% and the 2017 rate of 2.1% fell between those marks. Every year of that stretch stayed under 2.5%, a range most households could plan around.
Biden’s years look different. Inflation jumped to 4.7% in 2021 and hit 8.0% in 2022, the highest annual rate since 1981. It then fell to 4.1% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024. Calendar-year 2025 came in at 2.7%, but Biden led the country for the first three weeks of that year. The 2026 figure of 3.3% is a partial average of nine monthly readings, and the full-year number is not final. Households felt the jump in everyday categories such as groceries and housing. The table follows one rule: the president listed held office for most of the year, so 2021 and 2025 each include weeks under the other leader.
Trump vs Biden Average Inflation Rate 2026 Comparison: First Term vs Biden Years
Average Annual Inflation by Period (each █ = 0.25 percentage points)
Trump first term 2017–2020 | ████████ 1.9%
Biden years 2021–2024 | ████████████████████ 4.9%
Trump 2025 (partial term) | ███████████ 2.7%
| Period | Years | Average Annual Inflation | Highest Year | Lowest Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump first term | 2017–2020 | 1.9% | 2.4% (2018) | 1.2% (2020) |
| Biden term | 2021–2024 | 4.9% | 8.0% (2022) | 2.9% (2024) |
| Trump second term (partial) | 2025 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| Gap, Biden minus Trump first term | — | 3.0 points | 5.6 points | 1.7 points |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, annual average CPI-U; period averages and gaps calculated from BLS data.
The Inflation Under Trump vs Biden average gap is wide. Trump’s first four years averaged 1.9%, and Biden’s four calendar years averaged 4.9%. That is a gap of 3.0 percentage points, or about 2.6 times the first-term pace. Biden’s average reflects the 2021 and 2022 surge, when the figures reached 4.7% and 8.0%.
The high and low columns tell the same story. Trump’s worst year at 2.4% sat below Biden’s best year at 2.9%, a gap of 1.7 points. The gap between the two peaks was 5.6 points. The averages cover four calendar years for each president, which keeps the comparison even. Calendar years also mean the first weeks of each term carry the prior administration’s price trend. The single 2025 row of 2.7% is a one-year reading, not a term average. Economists still debate how much came from policy and how much came from the pandemic, supply chains, and energy markets. Check the starting point too. Inflation in 2020 was only 1.2%, so the Biden years began from a very low base, and the 2021 jump partly reflects demand returning as the economy reopened.
December-to-December Inflation Under Trump vs Biden 2026 Data
December-to-December CPI-U Inflation (each █ = 0.25 percentage points)
2016 Obama | ████████ 2.1%
2017 Trump | ████████ 2.1%
2018 Trump | ████████ 1.9%
2019 Trump | █████████ 2.3%
2020 Trump | ██████ 1.4%
2021 Biden | ████████████████████████████ 7.0%
2022 Biden | ██████████████████████████ 6.5%
2023 Biden | ██████████████ 3.4%
2024 Biden | ████████████ 2.9%
2025 Trump | ███████████ 2.7%
| Year | President at Year-End | December-to-December Inflation |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Obama | 2.1% |
| 2017 | Trump | 2.1% |
| 2018 | Trump | 1.9% |
| 2019 | Trump | 2.3% |
| 2020 | Trump | 1.4% |
| 2021 | Biden | 7.0% |
| 2022 | Biden | 6.5% |
| 2023 | Biden | 3.4% |
| 2024 | Biden | 2.9% |
| 2025 | Trump | 2.7% |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-U 12-month percent change, December of each year.
December-to-December figures remove the averaging effect that blurs annual data. Trump’s first term ran at 2.1%, 1.9%, 2.3%, and 1.4%, an average of about 1.9%. Biden’s four years ran at 7.0%, 6.5%, 3.4%, and 2.9%, an average of about 5.0%. The monthly 12-month rate peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, which does not appear in year-end data. Year-end figures also show timing. The 2021 reading of 7.0% shows that inflation had built up through the year, while the annual average of 4.7% understated how hot prices were by December.
The table also shows how fast inflation fell. It dropped from 7.0% in 2021 to 2.9% in 2024, a drop of 4.1 points in three years. The 2025 reading of 2.7% matched the pace of the late Biden period. The 2016 value of 2.1% is the starting point, and it sits close to the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, as do most Trump first-term years. Year-end inflation fell in each of the last three years of Biden’s term, and it kept easing into 2025, from 2.9% to 2.7%. That speed of decline is the main feature of the Biden-era data.
Total Price Increase Under Trump vs Biden 2026: How Much Did Prices Rise?
Cumulative CPI-U Price Increase (each █ = 1 percentage point)
Jan 2017–Jan 2021 (Trump first term) | ████████ 7.7%
Jan 2021–Jan 2025 (Biden term) | █████████████████████ 21.4%
Jan 2025–Sep 2026 (20 months) | ██████ 6.1%
| Period | Start Index | End Index | Total Price Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2017 to January 2021 | 242.839 | 261.582 | 7.7% |
| January 2021 to January 2025 | 261.582 | 317.671 | 21.4% |
| January 2025 to September 2026 | 317.671 | 336.940 | 6.1% |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-U index levels (1982–84=100), not seasonally adjusted; percent changes calculated.
Cumulative data shows the total hit to household budgets. Prices rose 7.7% between January 2017 and January 2021. They rose 21.4% between January 2021 and January 2025. A basket that cost $100 in January 2017 cost about $107.70 by January 2021 and about $130.80 by January 2025.
The third row covers only 20 months, so it is not a full-term figure. Prices rose 6.1% from January 2025 to September 2026, and the energy surge of 2026 drove much of it. Across the whole stretch, that same $100 basket now costs about $138.80, a total rise of about 38.8% since January 2017. These totals matter because inflation compounds. A rate of 2% per year sounds small, yet it adds up to more than 8% over four years, and higher rates compound much faster. Each period starts in January, so it includes price moves from the prior president’s final weeks. A price increase and a wage increase are different things. Many households judge inflation by whether paychecks kept pace, and that test needs separate wage data not shown here.
US Inflation Rate by Month in 2026 Under Trump’s Second Term
Monthly 12-Month CPI-U Inflation, 2026 (each █ = 0.1 percentage points)
Jan | ████████████████████████ 2.4%
Feb | ████████████████████████ 2.4%
Mar | █████████████████████████████████ 3.3%
Apr | ██████████████████████████████████████ 3.8%
May | ██████████████████████████████████████████ 4.2%
Jun | ███████████████████████████████████ 3.5%
Jul | ██████████████████████████████████ 3.4%
Aug | ██████████████████████████████████ 3.4%
Sep | █████████████████████████████████████ 3.7%
| Month | 12-Month Inflation Rate | Change From Prior Month (Points) |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | 2.4% | −0.3 |
| February 2026 | 2.4% | 0.0 |
| March 2026 | 3.3% | +0.9 |
| April 2026 | 3.8% | +0.5 |
| May 2026 | 4.2% | +0.4 |
| June 2026 | 3.5% | −0.7 |
| July 2026 | 3.4% | −0.1 |
| August 2026 | 3.4% | 0.0 |
| September 2026 | 3.7% | +0.3 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-U 12-month percent change, not seasonally adjusted; point changes calculated.
Inflation started 2026 at 2.4% in January, down from 2.7% in December 2025. It held at 2.4% in February. Then it jumped 0.9 points to 3.3% in March, added 0.5 points to reach 3.8% in April, and peaked at 4.2% in May, the highest reading in three years. Energy prices drove each of those steps. Inflation fell to its lowest point of the year in January, and by May it had climbed 1.8 points.
Relief came in June, when the rate fell 0.7 points to 3.5% after a monthly price drop of 0.4%. The rate eased to 3.4% in July and held there in August. September reversed the trend. It rose 0.3 points to 3.7% as gasoline climbed 9.1% in one month. The next report, covering October, is due on November 10, 2026. The point-change column shows momentum. Three straight increases from March to May gave way to two months of declines, then one flat month and one rise. Readers who track monthly reports should watch whether energy prices keep driving that swing.
Core Inflation vs Energy Prices in 2026: Why US Inflation Rose Again
Headline CPI, Core CPI and Energy Index in 2026 (each █ = 0.5 percentage points)
Mar headline | ███████ 3.3%
Mar core | █████ 2.6%
Mar energy | █████████████████████████ 12.5%
Jun headline | ███████ 3.5%
Jun core | █████ 2.6%
Jun energy | ███████████████████████████████ 15.7%
Sep headline | ███████ 3.7%
Sep core | █████ 2.6%
Sep energy | █████████████████████████████████████████ 20.4%
| Month | Headline CPI | Core CPI | Energy Index | Headline Minus Core (Points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2026 | 3.3% | 2.6% | 12.5% | 0.7 |
| June 2026 | 3.5% | 2.6% | 15.7% | 0.9 |
| September 2026 | 3.7% | 2.6% | 20.4% | 1.1 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI news releases for March, June, and September 2026; headline-minus-core gap calculated.
Core CPI held at 2.6% in all three months. Headline CPI rose from 3.3% to 3.7%. The gap between them grew from 0.7 points to 1.1 points, and energy explains that growth. The energy index climbed from 12.5% in March to 15.7% in June and 20.4% in September. Energy prices jumped 10.9% in March alone, when oil prices rose and the Strait of Hormuz closed, according to investment-firm commentary on the March report. Core CPI strips out food and energy because those two groups swing sharply from month to month. Economists use it to judge the underlying trend. A steady core reading with a rising headline points to a shock in one category and not a broad wave of price increases.
The pattern matters for Inflation Under Trump vs Biden comparisons. The 2021–2022 surge spread through shelter, goods, and services. The 2026 surge sits mostly in fuel. Core CPI peaked at 2.9% in May and returned to 2.6% by September, so underlying price growth stayed moderate. A fall in oil prices could pull headline inflation down quickly, as it did in June, and a new spike could push it up again. Households still pay for fuel, so a headline driven by energy still hurts budgets. Gasoline and electricity bills hit commuters and families who drive long distances the hardest.
Inflation Under Trump vs Biden FAQ 2026
Was inflation higher under Trump or Biden in 2026 data?
Inflation was higher under Biden. Annual CPI inflation averaged 4.9% across 2021–2024 and 1.9% across Trump’s first term. Inflation under Trump’s second term reached 3.7% in September 2026, which exceeds the late Biden years of 2.9% in 2024.
What was the average inflation rate under Trump’s first term in 2026 comparisons?
The average was 1.9% across 2017–2020. The yearly rates were 2.1%, 2.4%, 1.8%, and 1.2%.
What was the average inflation rate under Biden in 2026 comparisons?
The average was 4.9% across 2021–2024. The yearly rates were 4.7%, 8.0%, 4.1%, and 2.9%.
What was the highest US inflation rate under Biden in 2026 records?
The 12-month rate peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. The highest calendar-year average was 8.0% in 2022.
What is the latest US inflation rate in 2026?
The latest reading is 3.7% for the 12 months ending September 2026. Core inflation was 2.6%. The October report arrives on November 10, 2026.
Why is US inflation rising again in 2026?
Energy is the main cause. The energy index rose 20.4% over the 12 months to September 2026, and gasoline rose 9.1% in September alone. Core CPI stayed at 2.6%.
How much have US prices risen since 2017 in 2026 terms?
Prices rose about 38.8% between January 2017 and September 2026. That includes 7.7% in Trump’s first term, 21.4% under Biden, and 6.1% from January 2025 to September 2026.
Did Trump or Biden cause inflation in 2026 analysis?
The data does not settle that question. Annual inflation reflects price changes that began before each president took office. Pandemic demand shifts, supply chains, government spending, interest rates, and energy markets all played roles, and economists weigh them differently.
What is the difference between headline and core inflation in 2026?
Headline inflation covers all items and stood at 3.7% in September 2026. Core inflation excludes food and energy and stood at 2.6%. The 1.1-point gap shows how much energy added to the headline rate.
What does CPI-U measure in 2026?
CPI-U tracks the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes it monthly. It is the measure behind every rate in this report, and it stood at 3.7% year over year in September 2026.
When is the next US inflation report in 2026?
The October 2026 CPI report is due on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
What was US inflation in 2025 compared with 2026?
Annual inflation in 2025 was 2.7%, and December-to-December inflation was also 2.7%. The 2026 readings so far average 3.3%, and the latest 12-month rate is 3.7%.
How low did inflation fall under Trump in 2026 records?
The annual rate hit 1.2% in 2020, the lowest of his first term. The 12-month rate touched 0.1% in May 2020, when the pandemic cut demand sharply.
Is 2026 inflation higher than 2024 inflation?
Yes. Annual inflation in 2024 was 2.9%. The 2026 nine-month average is 3.3%, and the September 2026 reading of 3.7% is 0.8 points above the 2024 annual rate.
Did inflation fall during Biden’s term in 2026 data?
Yes, after its peak. The 12-month rate topped out at 9.1% in June 2022, and December-to-December inflation fell from 7.0% in 2021 to 2.9% in 2024.
How does CPI-U differ from CPI-W in 2026 reports?
CPI-U covers all urban consumers, while CPI-W covers urban wage earners and clerical workers. CPI-W puts more weight on spending patterns of working households, such as fuel. In September 2026, CPI-U rose 3.7% and CPI-W rose 3.9%.
What caused the 2021–2022 inflation surge in 2026 analysis?
Economists point to several forces: pandemic supply chain breakdowns, strong demand as the economy reopened, large government support programs passed under both presidents, and higher energy prices. Experts disagree on how much weight each force deserves, so the data alone cannot assign blame.
How does annual average inflation differ from December-to-December inflation in 2026?
Annual average inflation compares the average price level of one year with the average of the prior year. December-to-December inflation compares the last month of one year with the last month of the prior year. The year-end measure reacts faster, which is why 7.0% in 2021 sits well above the 4.7% annual average.
What is the Federal Reserve’s inflation target in 2026?
The Federal Reserve targets 2% inflation over the longer run, measured by the PCE price index. That index differs from CPI, so the 3.7% CPI reading for September 2026 is not a direct comparison with the target.
Where can I find official US inflation data in 2026?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index each month, along with detailed tables by category and region. Every figure in this report comes from those releases or from calculations based on them.
Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.