Independent Voters in US Elections 2026 | Party Preferences, Voting Patterns & Political Shifts

Independent Voters in US Elections 2026 made up 33% of midterm voters in the NBC News Exit Poll, and they backed Democratic candidates 56% to 39%. Gallup measured a record 45% of US adults as independents in 2025, compared with 27% who call themselves Democrats and 27% who call themselves Republicans.

Independent Voters in US Elections 2026 – Introduction

Independent Voters in US Elections now shape results more than at any point in modern polling. Gallup found that 45% of US adults called themselves independents in 2025. Neither major party reached 27% on its own. That gap set the stage for the 2026 midterms, where 33% of voters told exit pollers they usually think of themselves as independents. They sided with Democratic candidates, and Democrats are projected to control both chambers of Congress.

This report tracks the bloc through size, vote choice, gender, history, presidential approval, age, and mood. Every section draws on verified data from Gallup, Edison Research, Pew Research Center, Arizona State University, and the NBC News Exit Poll. Exit poll figures can shift as pollsters finish weighting, so read the 2026 numbers as early results. The direction of the trends is clear even if a decimal moves. Readers who track Independent Voters in US Elections for campaigns, newsrooms, or research will find the figures grouped by topic, with a source line under every table.

Interesting Facts About Independent Voters in US Elections 2026

INDEPENDENT VS PARTY IDENTIFICATION, US ADULTS, 2025 (each █ = 2 points)

Independents  ██████████████████████  45%
Democrats     █████████████▌          27%
Republicans   █████████████▌          27%

Source: Gallup Annual Party Identification Survey (2025 data), NBC News Exit Poll (November 2026), CBS News Exit Poll (November 2026), Economist/YouGov Poll (February 2026).

The headline fact is size. Independents are 45% of adults and 33% of the people who actually voted in the midterms. Democrats and Republicans each hold only 27% of adults. Independents also leaned toward one side in the ballot box: 56% voted Democratic and 39% voted Republican, a 17-point margin.

Two numbers explain the mood behind that margin. Trump’s approval among independents sat at 25% in February, and only 38% of all midterm voters approved of him in the CBS exit poll. Meanwhile 62% of adults said the two major parties do such a poor job that a third party is needed. Independents are not warming to Democrats so much as pulling away from the party in power. Gallup makes the same point: the lean toward Democrats tracks frustration with the White House, not a surge of goodwill for the opposition.

How Many Independent Voters Are There in the US in 2026

GALLUP INDEPENDENT IDENTIFICATION, US ADULTS (each █ = 2 points)

2014  █████████████████████▌  43%
2023  █████████████████████▌  43%
2024  █████████████████████▌  43%
2025  ██████████████████████▌ 45%  <- record

Source: Gallup, “New High of 45% in U.S. Identify as Political Independents” (January 2026), 13,454 adults, margin of error ±1 point.

Independents reached 45% of US adults in 2025. That tops the old record of 43%, set in 2014, 2023, and 2024. Democrats and Republicans each landed at 27%. Add leaners and Democrats lead 47% to 42%, the first Democratic edge since 2021.

Leaners drive the shift. Democratic-leaning independents grew 3 points to 20%, and Republican-leaning independents shrank 3 points to 15%. Together, leaners are 35% of adults, so only about 10% are true independents with no lean. That detail matters for Independent Voters in US Elections 2026. Most independents act like soft partisans, and small moves in their lean change the national balance fast. Gallup gathered these readings across the whole year of 2025, so the 45% figure is an annual average, not a single snapshot.

Independent Voters Share of the 2026 Midterm Electorate

SHARE OF 2026 MIDTERM VOTERS BY PARTY ID, INCLUDING LEANERS (each █ = 2 points)

Democrat/lean    ████████████████████████  48%
Republican/lean  ██████████████████████    44%
Independent      ████                       8%

Source: NBC News Exit Poll, 2026 midterm elections, national results (November 2026).

The NBC News Exit Poll shows 33% of voters usually think of themselves as independents. They voted Democratic 56% to 39%. Once leaners go into their parties, Democrats and leaners make up 48% of voters and Republicans and leaners make up 44%. Partisans stayed loyal: 97% of the Democratic group voted Democratic, and 92% of the Republican group voted Republican.

Only 8% of voters had no lean at all. Those true independents split 55% to 33% for Democrats, and the remaining 12% did not pick either major-party candidate in this reading. The 6% of Republican-side voters who crossed over matters more than it looks. In a close House district, a 6% defection among 44% of voters moves about 2.6 points of the total. The Democratic side held its base almost completely, which left independents as the only large group with real room to move in either direction.

How Independent Voters Voted by Gender in the 2026 Midterms

INDEPENDENT/OTHER VOTERS BACKING DEMOCRATS BY GENDER, 2026 (each █ = 3 points)

Women  ████████████████████  61%
Men    █████████████████     52%

Source: NBC News Exit Poll, 2026 midterm elections, party by gender (November 2026).

Independent men are the larger group at 18% of voters, against 14% for independent women. Men backed Democrats 52% to 43%, a 9-point margin. Women went 61% to 35%, a 26-point margin. The remaining 1% of voters identify another way and voted 85% Democratic.

Independent women lean further left than women overall, who voted 58% to 40%. Independent men lean further left than all men, who split 49% to 49%. That makes independents the most Democratic-leaning male group in the table. For campaigns, the lesson is plain: men who reject party labels were open to the opposition in 2026. Independent women and independent men together make up 32% of voters, so the gender gap inside the bloc shapes the national result.

Independent Voters Party Preferences in 2020 vs 2024 vs 2026

INDEPENDENT VOTE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE (each █ = 3 points)

2020  ██████████████████  55%
2024  ████████████████    49%
2026  ██████████████████▌ 56%

Source: Edison Research exit polls (2020, 2024) as analyzed by Arizona State University; NBC News Exit Poll (2026).

The independent share of the electorate jumped from 26% in 2020 to 34% in 2024, according to Edison Research. NBC measured 33% in 2026. Pollsters use different questions, so treat that as roughly flat. The vote margin moved far more. Democrats won independents by 14 points in 2020, by 3 points in 2024, and by 17 points in 2026.

Pew Research Center’s validated voter study confirms the 2024 dip. Independents including leaners split 48% to 48%, after favoring Biden by 9 points in 2020. Republicans and their leaners made up 51% of 2024 voters, up from 47%. The 2026 result reverses that swing by 14 points. Independent Voters in US Elections 2026 behaved like a rebuke vote, not a loyalty vote. In 2024, independents also split their tickets and sent mixed signals by state. Trump won them in Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, while Harris won them in Michigan by 4 points and in Wisconsin by 1 point.

Trump Approval Among Independent Voters in 2026

TRUMP APPROVAL AMONG INDEPENDENTS, 2026 POLLS (each █ = 2 points)

Jan 23-26 YouGov   ██████████████      27%
Feb 20-23 YouGov   █████████████       25%
Feb 25-27 CBS      █████████████████   34%
June (reported)    ████████████        23%

Source: Economist/YouGov Poll (January and February 2026), CBS News/YouGov Poll (February 2026), CBS News Exit Poll (November 2026), The Washington Times (June 2026).

Approval among independents stayed in a narrow, low band all year. It ranged from 23% to 34% across four readings. The January YouGov poll set a second-term low at 27% approve and 67% disapprove, a net of -40. February YouGov fell to 25%. The CBS poll that same month showed a bounce to 34%, but the net still sat at -32.

Context makes the numbers sharper. Around the 2024 election, roughly four in ten independents backed Trump. By spring 2026, that fell to about one in four. In the CBS exit poll, 38% of all midterm voters approved of him, a record low for a president in a midterm. NBC notes that Trump’s approval was 45% in 2018. Independents carried that decline into the ballot box. Pollsters warn that subgroup readings can swing from week to week, so the four polls above show a range, not a single exact value.

Why Independent Voters Are Growing in 2026: Gen Z, Millennials and Registration

SHARE OF EACH PARTY GROUP UNDER AGE 45, 2024 (each █ = 2 points)

Independents  ██████████████████████  44%
Democrats     ██████████████████▌     37%
Republicans   ███████████████▌        31%

Source: Arizona State University analysis of Edison Research exit polls (2024); Gallup (2025); Independent Voter News reporting on Colorado voter registration data (2025).

Age explains much of the growth. In 2024, 44% of independents were under 45, compared with 37% of Democrats and 31% of Republicans. Gallup reports that majorities of Gen Z adults and millennials identified as independents in 2025. Those groups also stay independent as they age, which breaks a historic pattern. Gen X and millennials are keeping the label into middle age.

Registration data points the same way. Colorado voters registered as independents passed 50% in 2025. National sentiment backs it up: 62% of adults said a third major party is needed. For Independent Voters in US Elections, the label has become a default choice for younger adults, not a waiting room before joining a party. Parties that ignore this group risk a shrinking base, because each new generation enters the electorate with weaker ties to either side.

Independent Voters Mood and Issues in the 2026 Midterms

2026 EXIT POLL ATTITUDES, ALL VOTERS (each █ = 3 points)

Dissatisfied with the country's direction  █████████████████████████  ~75%
Say immigration enforcement went too far   ███████████████████        57%
Say AI will hurt society more than help    ███████████████████        57%
Approve of Trump's job performance         ████████████▌              38%

Source: CBS News Exit Poll (November 2026), NBC News Exit Poll (November 2026), The Washington Times (June 2026).

Roughly three in four voters told CBS they were at least dissatisfied with the country’s direction. Among independents, just 19% said the country was on the right track in June, while 64% said wrong track. NBC found 57% of voters said immigration enforcement went too far. Another 57% said AI will hurt society more than it helps. Those two issues cut across party lines, which makes them useful signals for candidates who want to reach voters outside their base.

The Latino result adds a twist. Latino voters identifying as Democrats rose to 44% from 39% in 2024, reversing a decline that began in 2018. Gallup cautions that independents are reacting to the political climate, not embracing the Democratic Party. That caution fits the exit polls, where voters rated both parties unfavorably. The independent vote in 2026 was a verdict on the party in power, and it can move again. Cost of living ranked among the top worries for voters in both exit polls, and voters in both polls viewed the Republican and Democratic parties more unfavorably than favorably.

Frequently Asked Questions About Independent Voters in US Elections 2026

What percentage of Americans are independent voters in 2026?

Gallup’s latest annual figure is 45% of US adults, a record. In the 2026 midterm exit poll, 33% of voters said they usually think of themselves as independents. Gallup based its figure on interviews with more than 13,000 adults conducted throughout 2025, with a margin of error of 1 point again.

How did independent voters vote in the 2026 midterm elections?

They backed Democratic candidates 56% to 39%, according to the NBC News Exit Poll. Independents with no lean at all voted 55% to 33% for Democrats.

Do independent voters lean Democratic or Republican in 2026?

More lean Democratic. Gallup found 20% of adults are Democratic-leaning independents and 15% are Republican-leaning. That gave Democrats a 47% to 42% edge when leaners are counted.

Are independent voters bigger than Democrats or Republicans?

Yes. Independents hold 45% of US adults, while Democrats and Republicans each hold 27%. Among midterm voters, the independent share was 33%.

Why are so many Americans identifying as independents?

Younger generations drive it. Majorities of Gen Z adults and millennials identify as independents, and 44% of independents were under 45 in 2024. Dissatisfaction with both parties adds to it.

What is Trump’s approval rating among independent voters in 2026?

Polls put it between 23% and 34% during the year. Economist/YouGov measured 25% in February, and 38% of all midterm voters approved in the CBS exit poll.

Can independent voters vote in party primaries?

It depends on the state. Some states run open primaries, some run closed primaries, and some allow unaffiliated voters to choose a party ballot. Check your state election office for current rules, including registration deadlines and any party-switch requirements before the primary.

Are independent voters the same as moderates?

No. Independent is a party label, not an ideology. Gallup shows 35% of adults are independents who lean toward a party, and only about 10% have no lean.

Did independent voters decide the 2026 midterms?

They moved the margin. Independents were 33% of voters and gave Democrats a 17-point edge, up from 3 points in 2024. Democrats are projected to control Congress.

How did independent voters behave in swing states in 2024?

Results split by state. Trump won independents in Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Harris won them in Michigan by 4 points and in Wisconsin by 1 point. Nevada independents broke evenly.

Why did independent voters swing back to Democrats in 2026?

Exit polls point to dissatisfaction with the president and the economy. About 75% of voters were dissatisfied with the country’s direction, and 57% said immigration enforcement had gone too far.

Will independent voters keep leaning Democratic after the 2026 midterms?

Nobody can say yet. Gallup notes that independents are reacting to the current climate, not embracing the Democratic Party. That means the lean can reverse if the political climate changes.

What is the difference between a registered independent and a self-identified independent?

A registered independent has no party listed on the voter file. A self-identified independent tells a pollster they do not consider themselves a Democrat or Republican, even if they registered with a party. Gallup and the exit polls measure self-identification.

Where does the data on independent voters come from?

This report uses Gallup, Edison Research, Pew Research Center, Arizona State University, CBS News, and the NBC News Exit Poll. Exit poll numbers may change as final weighting arrives, and Gallup updates its party identification figures every year.

Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.