No licensed Ebola vaccine targets the Bundibugyo virus behind the 2026 DR Congo outbreak, so DR Congo, backed by WHO and CEPI, started the Tumaini Phase 2/3 trial on 23 October 2026 to test Ervebo and two Bundibugyo-specific candidates among a planned 3,620 participants. The outbreak has caused 9,704 confirmed cases and 4,687 deaths in DR Congo as of 20 October 2026, a 48.3% crude fatality ratio.
Ebola Vaccine 2026 – Introduction
The Ebola vaccine question changed on 15 May 2026. DR Congo declared its 17th Ebola outbreak that day, and the virus turned out to be Bundibugyo, not Zaire. The licensed Ebola vaccine, Ervebo, targets Zaire. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention states that no vaccine or specific treatment holds approval for Bundibugyo. Cases climbed from hundreds in June to 9,704 confirmed by 20 October, which makes this the second-largest Ebola outbreak on record.
This report tracks the numbers that matter to anyone searching for Ebola vaccine news in the United States. It covers the Tumaini trial, the candidate pipeline, past Ervebo efficacy data, case counts by province, and CDC entry rules. Every figure comes from WHO, CDC, FDA, CEPI, or peer-reviewed sources and stands current as of 24 October 2026.
Interesting Facts About the Ebola Vaccine in 2026
OUTBREAK SCALE, DR CONGO, 20 OCT 2026
Confirmed cases ███████████████████ 9,704
Deaths █████████ 4,687
Recoveries █████ 2,595| Fact | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Outbreak declared | 15 May 2026 |
| Virus | Bundibugyo ebolavirus |
| Confirmed cases in DR Congo | 9,704 |
| Confirmed deaths in DR Congo | 4,687 |
| Crude fatality ratio | 48.3% |
| Tumaini first dose | 23 October 2026 in Bunia |
| Planned trial enrollment | 3,620 participants |
| Ervebo doses allocated to DR Congo | 70,000 |
| Outbreak cases reported in the US | 0 |
Source: World Health Organization Disease Outbreak News; US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; CEPI. Data as of 20-24 October 2026.
The table shows a fast-moving outbreak and a slow-moving countermeasure. DR Congo declared the event on 15 May 2026. By 20 October, the country counted 9,704 confirmed cases and 4,687 deaths. That puts the crude fatality ratio at 48.3%. Bundibugyo ebolavirus causes the disease, and no approved Ebola vaccine targets it.
Vaccine work moved from lab to field on 23 October 2026, when the first Tumaini participant received a shot in Bunia. The trial plans 3,620 participants. DR Congo holds 70,000 Ervebo doses. WHO supports the DR Congo-led effort, and CEPI funds the trial. The United States has reported 0 cases tied to this outbreak, according to CDC.
Ebola Vaccine Trial in DR Congo 2026: Tumaini Design and Enrollment
TUMAINI TRIAL, ENROLLMENT VS DOSE RESERVE
Planned participants ████ 3,620
Trial dose reserve ████████████████████ 20,000
| Design Element | Detail |
|---|---|
| Trial name | Tumaini, Swahili for hope |
| Phase | Phase 2/3 adaptive platform |
| Planned enrollment | 3,620 participants |
| Primary endpoint | PCR-confirmed symptomatic disease starting 10 to 29 days after vaccination |
| Strategy | Ring vaccination of high-risk contacts |
| Eligible groups | Pregnant women and children aged 12 and older |
| First candidate | Ervebo |
| First dose given | 23 October 2026 in Bunia |
Source: CEPI; World Health Organization; ClinicalTrials.gov trial registry entry NCT07842107.
Tumaini is a pivotal Phase 2/3 adaptive platform trial. One framework tests several vaccines in parallel, which saves time during an outbreak. The trial plans 3,620 participants and uses ring vaccination, which targets contacts at high risk of infection. The primary endpoint counts PCR-confirmed symptomatic Bundibugyo disease that starts 10 to 29 days after the shot.
Eligibility matters here. The trial accepts pregnant women and children aged 12 and older, two groups that outbreak trials often exclude. Ervebo went first, and the first dose went into an arm in Bunia on 23 October 2026. Two Bundibugyo-specific candidates are set to join shortly. A WHO advisory group on candidate vaccine prioritisation decides which candidates enter. CEPI funds the study through its Bundibugyo virus vaccine development programme.
Bundibugyo Ebola Vaccine Candidates 2026: Ervebo, Moderna and Oxford Doses
ERVEBO ALLOCATION, 70,000 DOSES
Frontline and health workers ████████████████████ 50,000
Tumaini trial reserve ████████ 20,000
| Candidate | Developer | Status in October 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Ervebo | Merck | First candidate in Tumaini; licensed for Zaire ebolavirus only |
| ChAdOx1 BDBV | University of Oxford, Serum Institute of India | Phase 1 began July 2026; set to join Tumaini |
| Moderna mRNA candidate | Moderna | CEPI funding in June 2026; set to join Tumaini |
| IAVI rVSV candidate | IAVI | Production estimated at 7 to 9 months |
| Ervebo doses for DR Congo | DR Congo allocation | 70,000 doses: 20,000 for trial, 50,000 for frontline workers |
Source: CEPI; World Health Organization; University of Oxford; PLOS Global Public Health analysis; reported DR Congo dose allocation.
Four candidates matter in 2026. Ervebo comes from Merck and holds licensure for Zaire ebolavirus. It enters Tumaini first because animal data hint at some cross-protection. Oxford’s ChAdOx1 BDBV, built with the Serum Institute of India and CEPI, started Phase 1 testing in July 2026. Moderna’s mRNA candidate gained CEPI funding in June 2026. Each candidate uses a different technology: Merck’s rVSV platform, Oxford’s adenovirus vector, and Moderna’s mRNA.
The IAVI rVSV candidate lags on supply, with manufacturing estimated at 7 to 9 months. DR Congo received 70,000 Ervebo doses. Health authorities set 20,000 aside for the trial and 50,000 for frontline and health workers. That split sends 71.4% of the doses to frontline and health workers outside the trial.
Ervebo Ebola Vaccine Efficacy 2026: What Past Data Shows
ERVEBO PROTECTION AGAINST ZAIRE EBOLA
Guinea ring trial, 2015 ████████████████████ 100%
DR Congo estimate, first year ███████████████████ 97.5%
DR Congo test-negative study █████████████████ 84%
| Study or Metric | Setting | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Guinea ring vaccination trial | 2015, Zaire ebolavirus | 100% efficacy (95% CI 63.5% to 100%) |
| INRB and WHO preliminary estimate | First year of the 2018-2020 DR Congo outbreak | 97.5% effectiveness |
| Test-negative study | 2018-2020 DR Congo outbreak | 84% effectiveness at 10 or more days after vaccination |
| People vaccinated | Guinea 2015, expanded access | 16,000 |
| People vaccinated | DR Congo 2018-2020, expanded access | 345,000 |
| Bundibugyo cross-protection | 2026 | Unproven in humans |
Source: US Food and Drug Administration; World Health Organization; The Lancet Infectious Diseases (2024).
Ervebo has a strong record against Zaire ebolavirus. The Guinea ring trial found 100% efficacy, with a 95% confidence interval of 63.5% to 100%, and FDA approved the vaccine in December 2019. The INRB and WHO estimated 97.5% effectiveness in the first year of the 2018-2020 DR Congo outbreak. A later test-negative study put effectiveness at 84% for people vaccinated at least 10 days before exposure.
Scale supports those numbers. Teams vaccinated 16,000 people in Guinea in 2015 and 345,000 people in DR Congo during 2018-2020. None of this data covers Bundibugyo. The 84% real-world figure sits below the Guinea trial estimate. Cross-protection stays unproven in humans, and CDC states that no vaccine holds approval for this species. Tumaini exists to answer that question.
DR Congo Ebola Cases 2026: Confirmed Cases and Deaths Over Time
CONFIRMED CASES IN DR CONGO (each █ = 500 cases)
13 Jul █████ 2,344
6 Oct █████████████████ 8,728
15 Oct ██████████████████ 9,212
20 Oct ███████████████████ 9,704
| Date (2026) | Confirmed Cases | Confirmed Deaths | Crude Fatality Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 July | 2,344 | 930 | 39.7% |
| 6 October | 8,728 | 4,205 | 48.2% |
| 15 October | 9,212 | 4,441 | 48.2% |
| 20 October | 9,704 | 4,687 | 48.3% |
| Added since 6 October | 976 | 482 | 49.4% |
Source: World Health Organization Disease Outbreak News; US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Ratios calculated from reported counts.
Cases grew fast. DR Congo reported 2,344 confirmed cases and 930 deaths by 13 July 2026. By 6 October, WHO counted 8,728 cases and 4,205 deaths, a crude fatality ratio of 48.2%. CDC logged 9,212 DR Congo cases and 4,441 deaths on 15 October.
The latest WHO count, from 20 October, shows 9,704 cases and 4,687 deaths, a 48.3% ratio. The outbreak added 976 cases and 482 deaths after 6 October. Those new cases carry a 49.4% ratio. The July ratio of 39.7% runs lower because outcomes lag behind case reports.
Ebola Cases by Province in DR Congo 2026: Ituri, Haut-Uélé and Tshopo
SHARE OF CONFIRMED CASES BY PROVINCE
Ituri ███████████████ 72.5%
Other five ████ 22.3%
Haut-Uélé █ 4.3%
Tshopo ▏ 0.8%
| Province | Confirmed Cases | Deaths | Crude Fatality Ratio | Share of Cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ituri | 7,040 | 3,271 | 46.5% | 72.5% |
| Haut-Uélé | 421 | 183 | 43.5% | 4.3% |
| Tshopo | 76 | 27 | 35.5% | 0.8% |
| Five other provinces | 2,167 | 1,206 | 55.7% | 22.3% |
| DR Congo total | 9,704 | 4,687 | 48.3% | 100% |
Source: World Health Organization Disease Outbreak News, 20 October 2026. Other-province figures calculated from the national total.
Ituri sits at the center. The province holds 7,040 confirmed cases and 3,271 deaths, which equals 72.5% of all cases and a 46.5% crude fatality ratio. Bunia, the provincial capital, is where Tumaini began. Haut-Uélé follows with 421 cases and 183 deaths, and Tshopo reports 76 cases and 27 deaths.
The remaining five provinces together hold 2,167 cases and 1,206 deaths. Ituri alone carries almost three of every four cases. WHO reports spread across 66 health zones in eight provinces. Wide geography complicates ring vaccination, because teams must trace and reach contacts across long distances and insecure areas.
Ebola Outbreaks Compared 2026: West Africa, DR Congo 2018-2020 and Bundibugyo
CONFIRMED CASES BY OUTBREAK
West Africa 2014-2016 ███████████████████ 28,600
DR Congo 2026 ██████ 9,704
DR Congo 2018-2020 ██ 3,470
| Outbreak | Cases | Deaths | Crude Fatality Ratio | Vaccine at the Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Africa 2014-2016 | 28,600 | 11,325 | 39.6% | None during outbreak; Ervebo approved later |
| DR Congo 2018-2020 | 3,470 | 2,287 | 65.9% | Ervebo in use |
| DR Congo 2026 | 9,704 | 4,687 | 48.3% | None approved for Bundibugyo |
Source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention outbreak history; World Health Organization; peer-reviewed DR Congo trial data. Ratios calculated from reported counts.
The 2026 outbreak ranks second by size. The West Africa epidemic of 2014-2016 recorded 28,600 cases and 11,325 deaths, a 39.6% ratio. The 2018-2020 DR Congo outbreak recorded 3,470 cases and 2,287 deaths, a 65.9% ratio. The 2026 outbreak sits between them on fatality at 48.3%, and it already holds 2.8 times the cases of the 2018-2020 event.
Vaccine access separates the three events. West Africa had no licensed Ebola vaccine while the epidemic ran. DR Congo in 2018-2020 had Ervebo, and teams vaccinated 345,000 people. The 2026 outbreak has no approved Bundibugyo vaccine and no years of field data. Ituri province appeared in both DR Congo events.
Ebola Vaccine Timeline 2026: From Outbreak Declaration to First Trial Dose
DAYS AFTER DECLARATION ON 15 MAY 2026
WHO candidate list ██ 13
Therapeutics trial ██████ 48
Kenya imported case ██████████████████ 143
Tumaini first dose ████████████████████ 161
| Milestone | Date (2026) | Days After Declaration |
|---|---|---|
| WHO R&D Blueprint lists likely vaccine candidates | 28 May | 13 |
| Therapeutics trial of MBP134 and remdesivir begins | 2 July | 48 |
| Kenya confirms first imported case | 5 October | 143 |
| First Tumaini participant vaccinated | 23 October | 161 |
Source: World Health Organization; CEPI; PLOS Global Public Health; US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention situation reporting.
The vaccine timeline stretches across 161 days. WHO’s R&D Blueprint named likely candidates for prevention and treatment on 28 May 2026, only 13 days after DR Congo declared the outbreak. A therapeutics trial of MBP134 and remdesivir began on 2 July, 48 days in.
The first vaccine shot took longer. Kenya confirmed its first imported case on 5 October, day 143, while the vaccine trial neared launch. The first Tumaini participant received Ervebo on 23 October, day 161. WHO counted 9,704 confirmed cases by day 158, three days before that first trial dose.
Ebola Vaccine Side Effects 2026: Ervebo Safety Data and Label Limits
ERVEBO REACTIONS IN REGISTRATION DATA
Joint pain ██████████████████ 18%
Arthritis █████ 5%
Rash ████ 4%
Vesicular lesions ██ 2%
| Safety or Label Metric | Detail |
|---|---|
| Joint pain | 18% of 1,051 participants |
| Arthritis | 5% of participants |
| Rash | 4% of participants |
| Vesicular lesions | 2% of participants |
| Minimum age (WHO) | 12 months and older |
| Two-dose alternative | Zabdeno and Mvabea, 56 days apart |
| Antibody persistence | Detected up to 4 years after vaccination |
| Immunocompromised people | Safety and effectiveness not assessed |
Source: Merck Ervebo registration data; World Health Organization Ebola vaccine Q&A; US Food and Drug Administration.
Joint pain led the reaction list at 18% among 1,051 participants in the registration data. Arthritis appeared in 5%, rash in 4%, and vesicular lesions in 2%. These numbers come from Zaire-focused studies, so they describe how Ervebo behaves in people, not how well it blocks Bundibugyo.
Label limits shape who gets a shot. WHO lists Ervebo for people aged 12 months and older, and antibodies persist up to 4 years. The other licensed option, Zabdeno plus Mvabea, needs two doses spaced 56 days apart, which slows protection in an emergency. Safety and effectiveness in immunocompromised people remain unassessed.
Ebola Vaccine in the US 2026: CDC Entry Rules and Case Count
CONFIRMED CASES BY COUNTRY, OCTOBER 2026 (scaled)
DR Congo ████████████████████ 9,704
Uganda ██ 20
Kenya █ 9
France ▏ 1
Nigeria ▏ 1
United States ▏ 0
| CDC Measure | 2026 Detail |
|---|---|
| Entry restrictions begin | 18 May 2026 |
| Extended to US citizens | July 2026 |
| Order renewed | 12 August 2026 |
| New attestation rule starts | 3 November 2026 |
| Attestation covers | All US-bound air passengers, no DR Congo presence in prior 21 days |
| Cases outside DR Congo | 31 |
| US cases linked to outbreak | 0 |
Source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Reuters report on the CDC memo, 22 October 2026.
CDC barred airline passengers who had been in DR Congo within 21 days starting 18 May 2026. The agency extended the restriction to US citizens in July and renewed the order on 12 August. A new order starts on 3 November 2026 and requires every US-bound air passenger to attest that they have not been in DR Congo in the prior 21 days. Readers who want the wider regional picture can compare these rules with our Ebola outbreak statistics in Africa report on spread across the continent.
CDC counts 31 cases outside DR Congo, including 9 in Kenya. CDC also reports that health care workers have become infected while treating patients. No Ebola case tied to this outbreak has appeared in the United States. Because no approved Ebola vaccine covers Bundibugyo, travel rules and screening do the heavy lifting.
Ebola Vaccine 2026 – Frequently Asked Questions
Is There an Ebola Vaccine for Bundibugyo Virus in 2026?
No, not yet. CDC states that no vaccine holds approval for Bundibugyo virus disease. Ervebo and the two-dose Zabdeno and Mvabea regimen target Zaire ebolavirus. Tumaini now tests Ervebo, and two Bundibugyo-specific candidates are set to join.
What Is the Tumaini Ebola Vaccine Trial in 2026?
Tumaini is a Phase 2/3 adaptive platform trial in DR Congo. The first participant received Ervebo in Bunia on 23 October 2026. The trial plans 3,620 participants and measures efficacy against PCR-confirmed symptomatic disease 10 to 29 days after vaccination.
Does the Ervebo Ebola Vaccine Work Against Bundibugyo in 2026?
Nobody knows yet. Animal studies suggest possible cross-protection, which is why WHO’s advisory group prioritised Ervebo for a Phase 3 test. Human efficacy data against Bundibugyo will not exist until Tumaini reports results.
How Many People Have Died in the 2026 Ebola Outbreak?
WHO reports 4,687 confirmed deaths among 9,704 confirmed cases in DR Congo as of 20 October 2026. That equals a 48.3% crude fatality ratio. A total of 2,595 patients have recovered.
Who Can Join the Tumaini Ebola Vaccine Trial in 2026?
The trial includes pregnant women and children aged 12 and older. It uses ring vaccination, so enrollment centers on contacts at high risk of infection.
Is the Ervebo Ebola Vaccine Safe in 2026?
In Merck registration data for 1,051 participants, joint pain affected 18%, arthritis 5%, rash 4%, and vesicular lesions 2%. The vaccine may not protect everyone, and its safety in immunocompromised people has not been assessed.
Has Ebola Reached the United States in 2026?
CDC reports 0 cases tied to this outbreak in the United States. Entry restrictions began on 18 May 2026, and a new attestation rule for all US-bound air passengers starts on 3 November 2026.
When Will a Bundibugyo Ebola Vaccine Get Approval in 2026?
No date exists. Approval depends on Tumaini efficacy results, and the trial has just started. An efficacy readout needs enough PCR-confirmed cases among participants, so the pace of the outbreak shapes the timeline.
What Is Bundibugyo Ebolavirus in 2026?
Bundibugyo ebolavirus is one of the Ebola species that infect people. Uganda identified it in 2007. The 2026 DR Congo outbreak far exceeds every earlier Bundibugyo outbreak and drives the search for a species-specific Ebola vaccine.
How Does Ring Vaccination Work in the 2026 Ebola Response?
Teams vaccinate close contacts and potential contacts of a confirmed or probable case. That creates a ring of immunity around the case and limits spread. Tumaini uses this strategy, and the strategy has helped contain past Ebola outbreaks.
How Many Ebola Vaccine Doses Does DR Congo Have in 2026?
DR Congo received an initial allocation of 70,000 Ervebo doses. Authorities reserved 20,000 for the clinical trial and 50,000 for frontline and health workers. The Moderna and Oxford candidates are still preparing to enter the trial.
Who Funds the Bundibugyo Ebola Vaccine Trial in 2026?
CEPI funds Tumaini through its Bundibugyo virus vaccine development programme. CEPI also backs the Moderna and Oxford candidates, with the Serum Institute of India as the Oxford manufacturing partner. WHO supports the DR Congo-led effort.
Is Ervebo Approved by the FDA in 2026?
Yes, for Zaire ebolavirus. FDA approved Ervebo in December 2019, and the European Commission granted conditional authorization on 11 November 2019. No regulator has approved it for Bundibugyo disease.
Which Countries Report Bundibugyo Ebola Cases in 2026?
DR Congo leads with 9,704 confirmed cases. Uganda reports 20, Kenya 9, France 1, and Nigeria 1, which adds up to 31 cases outside DR Congo. The United States reports 0.
Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.