DHS Shutdown Statistics in US 2026 | Key Facts

DHS Shutdown Statistics in US

DHS Shutdown 2026

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) entered a partial government shutdown on Saturday, February 15, 2026, at 12:01 a.m. EST after Congress failed to pass a funding bill before the midnight deadline. This marks the third government shutdown in recent months, though unlike the record-breaking 43-day shutdown that paralyzed the federal government from October through November 2025, this funding lapse affects only DHS and its constellation of agencies. The shutdown stems from an intense political standoff between the White House and Congressional Democrats over immigration enforcement reforms following the fatal shootings of two American citizens by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis in January 2026.

The current DHS shutdown 2026 presents a unique situation where the department’s immigration enforcement agencies—Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP)—remain largely operational thanks to $165 billion in funding from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) signed into law in July 2025. However, other critical DHS components including the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), U.S. Coast Guard, Secret Service, and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) face significant operational disruptions. With over 270,000 DHS employees affected and Congress not scheduled to return until February 23, 2026, the shutdown is projected to last at least 10 days, potentially extending longer if negotiations between the White House and Democratic leaders fail to produce an agreement.

Interesting Facts About DHS Shutdown 2026

Fact Category Key Statistics Details
Shutdown Start Date February 15, 2026, 12:01 a.m. EST Funding lapse began after midnight Friday deadline
Projected Minimum Duration At least 10 days Congress not scheduled to return until February 23, 2026
Total DHS Employees Affected 272,000 employees Total DHS workforce impacted by shutdown
Employees Required to Work 249,065 employees (92%) Designated as “essential” and must continue working
Employees Furloughed 22,862 employees (8%) Non-essential workers sent home without pay
Previous 2025 Shutdown Duration 43 days Record-breaking shutdown from October-November 2025
One Big Beautiful Bill Funding $191 billion for DHS Additional funding through September 2029
ICE OBBBA Funding $75 billion Immigration and Customs Enforcement allocation
CBP OBBBA Funding $64.73 billion Customs and Border Protection allocation
TSA Employees Working Unpaid 95% of 64,000 employees Approximately 60,800 TSA workers without paychecks
Coast Guard Personnel Unpaid 56,000 active duty and civilian Military personnel going without pay during shutdown
FEMA Staff Continuing Work 21,000 employees (84%) Disaster response personnel designated as essential
Failed DHS Funding Bill Amount $64 billion Discretionary funding for fiscal year 2026
Democrats’ Reform Demands 10 specific requirements Changes to immigration enforcement operations

Data Source: NBC News, NPR, CNN Politics, CBS News, Federal News Network, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (February 2026)

The DHS shutdown 2026 represents an unprecedented situation in federal government operations. While 272,000 DHS employees face the consequences of the funding lapse, the vast majority—249,065 workers or 92%—are classified as “essential” and must continue reporting to work despite not receiving paychecks. Only 22,862 employees (8%) are furloughed and sent home without pay. This stands in stark contrast to typical government shutdowns where significantly higher percentages of workers are furloughed. The low furlough rate reflects DHS’s critical national security mission and the fact that most agency functions involve protecting life, property, and national security.

The financial context of this shutdown is remarkable. Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025, providing $191 billion in additional funding for DHS through September 2029. This includes $75 billion for ICE and $64.73 billion for CBP, ensuring that the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement operations continue uninterrupted during the shutdown. However, agencies like TSA, where 95% of 64,000 employees must work without pay, and the Coast Guard, with 56,000 personnel facing missed paychecks, bear the brunt of the funding lapse. The failed DHS funding bill would have provided $64 billion in discretionary funding for fiscal year 2026, but Democrats blocked its passage, demanding 10 specific reforms to immigration enforcement operations before agreeing to fund the department.

Timeline of DHS Shutdown 2026 Events

Date Event Details Impact
January 2026 Minneapolis Shootings Federal immigration agents fatally shot two U.S. citizens (Alex Pretti and Renee Nicole Good) during protests Sparked national outcry and Democratic demands for ICE/CBP reforms
Late January 2026 Temporary DHS Funding Congress passed short-term funding for DHS only through February 13 Separated DHS from other government funding to allow reform negotiations
February 10-13, 2026 Failed Negotiations White House and Democrats traded proposals but reached no agreement Both chambers left Washington without passing funding bill
February 13, 2026 (Thursday) Senate Short-Term Extension Blocked Republicans attempted to pass short-term funding extension Democrats blocked the measure, demanding reforms first
February 13, 2026 (Evening) House Begins Recess House of Representatives started week-long Presidents Day recess Left town without passing DHS funding
February 14, 2026 (Friday) Senate Adjourns Senate adjourned for week-long recess without DHS deal Made shutdown inevitable
February 15, 2026 (12:01 a.m.) DHS Shutdown Begins Funding officially lapsed for Department of Homeland Security 272,000 employees affected; most continue working without pay
February 23, 2026 (Sunday) Congress Scheduled to Return Earliest possible date for lawmakers to reconvene Minimum 10-day shutdown projected
February 24, 2026 (Monday) State of the Union Address President Trump scheduled to deliver annual address to Congress Political pressure to resolve shutdown before major speech

Data Source: NBC News, CBS News, CNN Politics, NPR

The path to the DHS shutdown 2026 began with a tragic incident in Minneapolis during January 2026 when federal immigration agents fatally shot two American citizens—Alex Pretti and Renee Nicole Good—during immigration enforcement operations. The shootings sparked widespread public outcry and prompted Senate Democrats to demand comprehensive reforms to ICE and CBP operations. Reports emerged of masked immigration agents threatening bystanders and using disproportionate force, crystallizing concerns about accountability and oversight in immigration enforcement.

In late January 2026, Congress deliberately separated DHS funding from a broader government funding package, providing temporary funding only through February 13, 2026. This strategic move gave negotiators additional time to address Democrats’ reform demands while keeping the rest of the federal government funded through September 30, 2026. However, negotiations between the White House and Democratic leaders failed to produce an agreement during the extended window. Republicans attempted to pass a short-term funding extension on Thursday, February 13, but Democrats blocked the measure, insisting that reforms must come before funding approval. Both the House and Senate then left Washington for the Presidents Day recess, making the shutdown inevitable when the funding deadline arrived at midnight on Friday.

DHS Employees Affected by Shutdown 2026

Agency Total Employees Essential Workers Furloughed Workers Payment Status Key Functions
TSA 64,000 60,800 (95%) 3,200 (5%) Unpaid during shutdown Airport security screening
ICE ~20,000 (est.) ~19,000 (95%) ~1,000 (5%) Paid via OBBBA funds Immigration enforcement, detention
CBP ~60,000 (est.) ~56,000 (93%) ~4,000 (7%) Paid via OBBBA funds Border patrol, customs
Coast Guard 56,000 56,000 (100%) 0 (0%) Unpaid during shutdown Maritime security, search and rescue
FEMA ~22,000 ~21,000 (84%) ~1,000 (16%) Mixed (DRF vs. appropriations) Disaster response and recovery
Secret Service ~7,000 (est.) ~6,500 (93%) ~500 (7%) Unpaid during shutdown Presidential protection, investigations
CISA 2,341 888 (38%) 1,453 (62%) Unpaid during shutdown Cybersecurity, infrastructure protection
Overall DHS 272,000 249,065 (92%) 22,862 (8%) Majority unpaid Homeland security mission

Data Source: NPR, Federal News Network, CBS News, PBS News, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (February 2026)

The DHS shutdown 2026 creates a two-tier system among homeland security employees. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) faces perhaps the most direct impact on American travelers, with 60,800 employees (95%) required to staff airport security checkpoints without receiving paychecks. During the previous 43-day shutdown in October-November 2025, TSA experienced doubled or even tripled unscheduled absences at some airports as workers struggled with financial hardship. TSA Acting Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill testified that employees resorted to selling blood plasma, sleeping in their cars at airports to save gas money, and taking second jobs to make ends meet. The agency experienced a 25% increase in attrition during that period, and many employees are still recovering financially.

The U.S. Coast Guard, the only military branch housed under DHS, faces a particularly difficult situation. All 56,000 active duty, reserve, and civilian personnel must continue their missions including search and rescue, maritime law enforcement, and national defense operations, but will go without pay if the shutdown extends beyond a few days. Vice Admiral Thomas Allan, acting vice commandant of the Coast Guard, warned that “shutdowns cripple morale” and noted that Coast Guard members deployed in dangerous areas like the Strait of Hormuz should not have to worry about their families paying rent while conducting national security missions.

Meanwhile, ICE and CBP—the agencies at the center of the political dispute—continue operating with minimal disruption thanks to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. ICE received $75 billion in OBBBA funding, including $45 billion for detention capacity and $30 billion for operations, while CBP received $64.73 billion, including $46.55 billion for border wall construction. This funding ensures that approximately 95% of ICE personnel and 93% of CBP workers remain paid during the shutdown, an ironic outcome given that Democrats demanded immigration enforcement reforms as a condition for passing new DHS funding.

Democratic Reform Demands for DHS Shutdown 2026 Resolution

Reform Category Specific Requirement Republican Response Bipartisan Support Status
Body Cameras Require all immigration officers to wear body cameras Some implementation already underway High – appears to have bipartisan support Partially adopted by DHS
Officer Identification Mandate visible identification badges for all agents Accepted in principle Moderate Under negotiation
Mask Ban Prohibit agents from wearing masks to conceal identities Strong Republican opposition Low – GOP says masks protect officers from doxxing Major sticking point
Judicial Warrants Require judicial warrants for arrests on private property Republican resistance Low – GOP says this undermines enforcement Major sticking point
Use of Force Policy Tighten parameters around use of force by agents Under discussion Moderate Under negotiation
Roving Patrols Restrict or eliminate roving immigration patrols Republican opposition Low Major sticking point
Code of Conduct Establish formal code of conduct for federal agents Accepted in principle Moderate-High Under negotiation
Sanctuary City Crackdown Republican counter-demand: restrict sanctuary cities Democratic opposition Low – Democrats strongly oppose GOP leverage attempt
Search Parameters Tighten warrant requirements for searches Republican resistance Low Under negotiation
Accountability Mechanisms Enhanced oversight and reporting requirements Mixed response Moderate Under negotiation

Data Source: NPR, CNN Politics, NBC News, Al Jazeera (February 2026)

Senate Democrats have outlined 10 specific demands for immigration enforcement reforms as a precondition for passing DHS funding. The most universally supported reform involves requiring immigration officers to wear body cameras, a measure that has already gained traction within DHS following the Minneapolis shootings. Secretary Kristi Noem announced that the department was acquiring and deploying body cameras for field officers, signaling willingness to adopt this particular reform. Democrats also demand that agents wear visible identification badges and establish a formal code of conduct, requirements that have received moderate bipartisan support.

However, several Democratic demands face fierce Republican opposition. The proposal to prohibit agents from wearing masks to conceal their identities has become a major sticking point, with Republicans arguing that masking protects federal officers from being doxxed and targeted by criminal organizations or political activists. House Appropriations Chairman Tom Cole called the demand unreasonable, noting that officer safety must be balanced against accountability concerns. Similarly, the requirement for judicial warrants before arrests on private property faces strong GOP resistance, with Republicans contending that such restrictions would fundamentally undermine immigration enforcement operations and allow dangerous criminals to evade capture.

Republicans have attempted to introduce their own demands as leverage in the negotiations, particularly pushing for restrictions on so-called sanctuary cities that limit cooperation with federal immigration authorities. Democrats have strongly opposed these counter-demands, viewing them as poison pills designed to derail negotiations rather than genuine compromise positions. President Trump characterized some Democratic demands as “very, very hard to approve” and suggested Democrats have “gone crazy” in their reform requirements. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer countered that Democratic negotiators remain “available 24/7” once the White House is ready to “get serious” about meaningful reforms.

Impact of DHS Shutdown 2026 on Federal Agencies

Agency Missions Continuing Missions Suspended Personnel Impact Public Impact Recovery Time
TSA Airport security screening Technology deployments, training programs 60,800 working without pay Potential longer security lines, flight delays Weeks to restore morale
FEMA Emergency response, life-safety operations Disaster reimbursements to states, training programs ~21,000 working without full pay Delayed state disaster relief payments Months for claims backlog
Coast Guard Search and rescue, drug interdiction, national defense Training, maintenance, commercial inspections 56,000 unpaid Reduced readiness, deferred maintenance Months for readiness recovery
Secret Service Presidential protection, dignitary security Technology upgrades, training reforms ~6,500 working without pay No immediate public impact Weeks for modernization delays
CISA Critical cyber monitoring Cyber infrastructure improvements, outreach 888 working, 1,453 furloughed Reduced cyber threat monitoring Weeks to months
ICE Immigration enforcement, detention operations Inter-agency coordination Mostly paid via OBBBA Minimal operational impact Minimal
CBP Border security, customs operations Long-term planning, some training Mostly paid via OBBBA Minimal operational impact Minimal

Data Source: The Hill, Federal News Network, NPR, Axios, CBS News (February 2026)

The Transportation Security Administration faces the most visible public impact from the DHS shutdown 2026. With 95% of its 64,000 employees classified as essential, airport security screening continues, but the financial strain on workers increases the risk of higher callout rates as the shutdown extends. During the previous 43-day shutdown, unscheduled absences among TSA workers doubled or tripled at some airports, forcing the closure of security checkpoints and creating longer wait times for travelers. TSA Acting Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill warned that the agency could again face staffing shortages that lead to security lane closures, particularly as the spring break travel season approaches in March. The shutdown also delays deployment of new security technology and training programs that enhance screening efficiency.

FEMA continues its core emergency response functions during the shutdown, with approximately 84% of its 22,000 employees designated as essential. However, Associate Administrator Gregg Phillips testified that the shutdown “severely disrupts” FEMA’s ability to reimburse states for disaster relief costs and hampers coordination with state, local, tribal, and territorial partners. The agency’s Disaster Relief Fund (DRF) still has funding from prior congressional appropriations, allowing emergency response activities to continue, but a catastrophic disaster combined with a prolonged shutdown could drain the fund and cripple response capabilities. FEMA employees funded through annual appropriations rather than the DRF must work without pay, and the agency has already lost over 2,000 employees to the Trump administration’s workforce transition program in 2025, leaving it understaffed for major emergencies.

The U.S. Coast Guard must suspend all missions unrelated to “national security or the protection of life and property” according to Vice Admiral Thomas Allan. This means critical functions like search and rescue, drug interdiction, and maritime law enforcement continue, but training programs, vessel maintenance, commercial safety inspections, and other non-emergency services are suspended. The shutdown creates severe morale problems among the 56,000 personnel who must continue dangerous missions without pay, and Allan warned of “severe and lasting challenges for the Coast Guard’s workforce, operational readiness, and long-term capabilities.” The service is still recovering from the financial and operational impacts of the previous 43-day shutdown.

Financial Impact of DHS Shutdown 2026

Financial Category Amount Timeframe Affected Parties Resolution Method
Unpaid DHS Salaries (per day) ~$90 million (estimated) Daily during shutdown ~249,000 essential workers Backpay after shutdown ends
TSA Screening Bonuses $10,000 per worker Post-2025 shutdown Select TSA employees Already distributed
One Big Beautiful Bill (DHS) $191 billion July 2025 – September 2029 DHS agencies Alternative funding source
ICE OBBBA Allocation $75 billion Through September 2029 Immigration enforcement operations Continues during shutdown
CBP OBBBA Allocation $64.73 billion Through September 2029 Border security operations Continues during shutdown
Failed DHS Funding Bill $64 billion Fiscal Year 2026 All DHS operations Blocked by Democrats
ICE Regular Appropriation Request $10 billion FY 2026 (in failed bill) Immigration enforcement Not approved
FY 2025 DHS Base Funding $65 billion Fiscal Year 2025 DHS operations Already expired
FEMA Disaster Relief Fund $22.5 billion FY 2025 appropriation Emergency response Residual funds available
Estimated Economic Impact $500+ million (estimated) Per week of shutdown Airlines, travel industry, federal contractors Mounts with shutdown duration

Data Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Congress.gov, American Immigration Council, Federal News Network (2026)

The financial dimensions of the DHS shutdown 2026 are unprecedented in federal government history. The department received $191 billion in additional funding through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025, with the vast majority designated for immigration enforcement and border security operations. This included $75 billion for ICE and $64.73 billion for CBP, far exceeding their typical annual appropriations. For context, ICE’s FY 2024 budget was approximately $10 billion, meaning the OBBBA funding represents nearly seven and a half years of typical ICE appropriations compressed into a four-year spending window through September 2029.

The irony of the DHS shutdown 2026 is that the agencies at the center of the political dispute—ICE and CBP—continue operating with abundant funding while other critical homeland security functions suffer. Essential DHS employees who must work without pay during the shutdown collectively represent approximately $90 million in daily unpaid salaries, though this figure varies based on staffing levels and pay scales. Following the previous 43-day shutdown, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem authorized $10,000 bonuses for select TSA screeners who demonstrated “exemplary service” during the funding lapse, though the exact number of recipients and selection criteria remain unclear.

The failed DHS funding bill would have provided $64 billion in discretionary funding for fiscal year 2026, including $10 billion specifically for ICE. However, as Senator Patty Murray’s office acknowledged, “Congress’ failure to pass a Homeland Security appropriations bill would not shut down ICE or CBP” given the massive OBBBA funding already available. The broader economic impact extends beyond federal salaries, with major travel and hospitality industry groups warning that TSA staffing problems could lead to flight delays and cancellations that ripple through the economy. Airlines for America and other industry organizations issued statements warning that the shutdown increases risks of unscheduled TSA absences, higher wait times, and missed flights, potentially costing the economy hundreds of millions of dollars per week in lost productivity and travel disruptions.

Comparison: DHS Shutdown 2026 vs. Previous Government Shutdowns

Shutdown Event Duration Date Range Agencies Affected Total Employees Affected Key Causes Resolution
Fall 2025 Shutdown 43 days October – November 2025 Entire federal government ~2 million employees Full government funding lapse Comprehensive funding agreement
Early February 2026 Brief Lapse <1 day Early February 2026 Brief funding gap Minimal impact Technical funding delay Quick resolution
DHS Shutdown 2026 Ongoing (min. 10 days) February 15, 2026 – TBD DHS only 272,000 DHS employees Immigration reform demands Negotiations continuing
2018-2019 Shutdown 35 days December 2018 – January 2019 Partial government (9 depts) ~800,000 employees Border wall funding dispute Temporary funding without wall money
2013 Shutdown 16 days October 2013 Entire federal government ~800,000 furloughed Affordable Care Act dispute Clean funding bill without ACA changes

Data Source: NBC News, CNN Politics, PBS News, Historical Government Shutdown Data (2026)

The DHS shutdown 2026 represents a unique chapter in government shutdown history. Unlike the previous 43-day shutdown that paralyzed the entire federal government from October through November 2025, this funding lapse affects only the Department of Homeland Security and its component agencies. The 2025 shutdown was the longest in U.S. history, affecting approximately 2 million federal employees across all departments and causing widespread disruption to government services ranging from national parks to tax return processing. That shutdown ended when Congress passed comprehensive funding legislation for all agencies, but specifically separated DHS funding to allow additional time for immigration enforcement reform negotiations.

The 2026 DHS shutdown differs fundamentally from previous shutdowns in that one department—DHS—received massive supplemental funding through a separate legislative vehicle (the One Big Beautiful Bill Act) that shields its core immigration enforcement functions from the appropriations dispute. This creates an unusual situation where ICE and CBP operations continue nearly unaffected while TSA, FEMA, Coast Guard, and other DHS components face significant operational and financial strain. Historical shutdowns typically affected agencies more uniformly based on whether their funding had lapsed.

The 2018-2019 shutdown lasted 35 days and centered on President Trump’s demand for border wall funding, affecting approximately 800,000 federal employees across nine departments. That shutdown ended with a temporary funding extension that did not include wall money, though the administration later secured wall funding through other means. The 2013 shutdown lasted 16 days and stemmed from Republican opposition to the Affordable Care Act, with Republicans demanding ACA changes as a condition for funding the government. That shutdown ended when Republicans agreed to pass a “clean” funding bill without ACA modifications. The DHS shutdown 2026 most closely resembles a standoff where one party uses funding leverage to demand policy changes, though the specific dynamics differ given that only one department is affected.

Public Opinion and Political Dynamics of DHS Shutdown 2026

Poll/Survey Data Finding Date Significance Source
Trump Immigration Approval 40% approve, 60% disapprove February 2026 Down from 51% approve in June 2025 NBC News Poll
Trump Immigration Approval (June 2025) 51% approve, 49% disapprove June 2025 Previous approval before Minneapolis shootings NBC News Poll
Public Opinion Shift -11% approval rating decline June 2025 to February 2026 Major swing against immigration enforcement approach NBC News Analysis
Democrats’ Negotiation Position “Available 24/7” February 2026 Democrats claim readiness to negotiate Sen. Chuck Schumer
Republican Characterization Democrats “gone crazy” February 2026 White House view of reform demands President Trump
Industry Travel Concerns Major delays predicted February 2026 Airlines for America warning Travel Industry Coalition

Data Source: NBC News Poll, CNN Politics, Public Statements February 2026

Public opinion has shifted dramatically on immigration enforcement in the months leading to the DHS shutdown 2026. A new NBC News poll released in mid-February 2026 found that just 40% of U.S. adults approve of President Trump’s handling of “border security and immigration,” while 60% disapprove. This represents a significant reversal from June 2025, when 51% approved and 49% disapproved of Trump’s immigration policies. The 11-percentage-point swing in public opinion provided Democrats with political leverage to demand immigration enforcement reforms as a condition for funding DHS.

The Minneapolis shootings in January 2026 served as a catalyst for the public opinion shift and the subsequent political standoff. Reports of masked immigration agents using excessive force and threatening bystanders during enforcement operations fueled concerns about accountability and oversight. Senate Democrats, emboldened by the public backlash, insisted that reforms must precede any new funding for DHS. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer declared that Democrats “will be available 24/7” to continue negotiations once the White House and Republicans are ready to “get serious” about addressing the concerns raised by the Minneapolis incident.

President Trump and Republican leaders have pushed back against Democratic characterizations of the shutdown politics. Trump said Thursday afternoon that some Democratic demands are “very, very hard to approve” and characterized Democrats as having “gone crazy” in their reform requirements. House Appropriations Chairman Tom Cole argued that the shutdown is “not a strategy” and represents “a setback for national security and for American families,” pointing out that TSA agents, Coast Guard personnel, and Secret Service staff will be forced to work without pay while ICE and CBP—the agencies Democrats seek to reform—continue operating with full funding. Cole characterized Democratic tactics as political theater that shifts the burden onto frontline homeland security personnel and the communities they serve rather than achieving meaningful policy reforms.

Previous DHS Shutdown Impact: October-November 2025

Impact Category Statistic Agency Affected Long-term Consequence Current Relevance
Shutdown Duration 43 days Entire federal government Longest shutdown in U.S. history Sets precedent for current shutdown
TSA Attrition Increase +25% in Oct-Nov 2025 Transportation Security Administration Workforce depletion Compounds 2026 shutdown impact
TSA Callout Rate 2-3x normal rates TSA at some airports Extended security wait times Risk of recurrence in 2026
Financial Hardship Examples Selling blood/plasma, car sleeping TSA employees Severe morale damage Workers still recovering financially
Coast Guard Morale Impact “Crippling” per testimony U.S. Coast Guard Recruitment challenges Personnel “still reeling” from 2025
Secret Service Modernization Delayed reforms Secret Service Technology gaps remain 2026 shutdown compounds delays
Employee Second Jobs Significant percentage Multiple agencies Work-life balance destroyed Creates performance risks

Data Source: NPR, Federal News Network, Congressional Testimony February 2026

The 43-day government shutdown from October through November 2025 left lasting scars across DHS agencies that compound the impact of the 2026 shutdown. The Transportation Security Administration experienced a 25% increase in attrition during October-November 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, as frustrated employees left for jobs offering more stable paychecks. TSA Acting Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill testified that many employees are “still reeling” from the 2025 shutdown and described heartbreaking accounts of TSA officers selling their blood and plasma to pay bills, sleeping in their cars at airports to save money on gasoline, and working double shifts at second jobs to support their families.

The callout rate at TSA doubled or tripled at some airports during the 2025 shutdown as employees facing financial crisis simply couldn’t afford to continue working without pay. This forced airports to close security lanes and created cascading delays throughout the aviation system. McNeill warned that the agency risks seeing similar or worse patterns in the 2026 DHS shutdown, particularly as it extends into the lucrative spring break travel season in March when passenger volumes increase significantly. The agency is already operating with depleted staffing due to the 2025 attrition spike, making it even more vulnerable to callout problems in the current shutdown.

Coast Guard leadership testified that the service’s 56,000 personnel are “still recovering from the financial impact of the 43-day shutdown” and described morale as severely damaged. Vice Admiral Thomas Allan stated bluntly that “shutdowns cripple morale” and create recruitment and retention challenges that persist long after funding is restored. The Secret Service reported that critical modernization efforts—including improvements to training, drone technology, communications infrastructure, and protective protocols following the attempted assassination of President Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania—were delayed by the 2025 shutdown and will face additional delays during the 2026 funding lapse. These compounding delays leave vulnerabilities in protective operations that Deputy Director Matthew Quinn characterized as risks to presidential security.

Projected Resolution Scenarios for DHS Shutdown 2026

Scenario Probability Assessment Key Elements Timeline Likely Compromises Obstacles
Short-term Extension Moderate 2-4 week funding patch while negotiations continue February 23-28, 2026 No policy changes, just time extension Democrats may resist without concessions
Partial Reform Package High Body cameras, identification requirements, some use-of-force changes Late February/Early March 2026 Democrats accept partial reforms; GOP accepts some restrictions Mask ban, warrant requirements remain disputed
Comprehensive Agreement Moderate-Low Full 10-point Democratic demands with Republican counter-demands March 2026 Sanctuary city provisions, full ICE reforms Requires significant White House flexibility
Republican-Only Bill Low GOP passes bill without Democratic votes Unlikely No reforms, full funding Requires 60 Senate votes; Democrats will filibuster
Extended Shutdown Moderate Shutdown continues beyond February March-April 2026 Political pressure mounts on both sides Public backlash, TSA crisis could force resolution

Data Source: Political Analysis, Congressional Statements, NBC News, CNN Politics (February 2026)

Political observers project several potential paths to resolving the DHS shutdown 2026. The most likely scenario involves a partial reform package where Democrats accept less than their full 10-point reform agenda in exchange for Republicans agreeing to some immigration enforcement restrictions. This could include widely supported measures like mandatory body cameras, visible identification requirements, and enhanced use-of-force reporting, while leaving more contentious issues like the mask ban and judicial warrant requirements for future negotiation. Such a compromise could emerge in late February or early March as political pressure builds on both parties to end the shutdown before it extends into the busy spring travel season.

A short-term funding extension of 2-4 weeks represents another plausible outcome, particularly if negotiations show progress but need additional time to finalize details. However, Democrats may resist a “clean” extension without any policy concessions, having already invested significant political capital in the shutdown strategy. The proximity of the State of the Union address on February 24, 2026, creates political pressure for resolution, as neither party wants homeland security agencies operating in crisis mode during the president’s major annual speech. However, Congress isn’t scheduled to return until February 23, leaving little time for complex negotiations before the address.

An extended shutdown lasting into March or April remains possible if both sides dig in on their positions. This scenario becomes more likely if the initial week of shutdown produces minimal public disruption, leading negotiators to believe they have time for prolonged talks. However, as TSA callouts increase and Coast Guard morale deteriorates, public pressure could mount rapidly. Airlines for America and other major travel industry groups are already warning of potential economic disruption, and a single high-profile security failure or major disaster requiring FEMA response could instantly shift political calculations. The longer the shutdown persists, the greater the risk of catastrophic events that expose homeland security vulnerabilities.

Lessons and Future Implications of DHS Shutdown 2026

The DHS shutdown 2026 reveals fundamental tensions in how Congress funds and oversees homeland security operations in an era of intense partisan polarization. The shutdown demonstrates that supplemental funding through reconciliation bills—like the One Big Beautiful Bill Act—can insulate specific agencies from appropriations disputes but creates perverse incentives where agencies at the center of policy controversies operate normally while unrelated components of the same department suffer. This outcome undermines the traditional leverage that appropriations provide for Congressional oversight and reform.

The humanitarian impact on federal employees compounds with each successive shutdown. TSA, Coast Guard, and other DHS personnel are being asked to continue protecting national security while facing repeated financial crises that force them to sell blood plasma, sleep in cars, and take second jobs just to survive. This pattern is unsustainable and threatens the long-term viability of federal law enforcement and security services. The 25% attrition spike at TSA during the 2025 shutdown, combined with ongoing morale problems across DHS, suggests that the federal government is approaching a breaking point where essential workers simply refuse to continue accepting the financial uncertainty that comes with government service.

The DHS shutdown 2026 also highlights the growing role of specific trigger events—like the Minneapolis shootings—in catalyzing policy change demands. Democrats seized on public outrage over the fatal shootings to press for comprehensive immigration enforcement reforms, using appropriations as leverage in ways that previous administrations successfully resisted. Whether this strategy ultimately succeeds in achieving meaningful reforms or simply prolongs the shutdown while ICE and CBP continue operating with OBBBA funding will shape future congressional approaches to homeland security oversight.

Perhaps most significantly, the shutdown exposes the limitations of using government funding lapses as negotiating tactics. House Appropriations Chairman Tom Cole’s observation that “a shutdown is not a strategy” reflects growing recognition that these funding crises inflict real damage on government operations, employee morale, and public services without reliably producing policy outcomes. The fact that ICE and CBP—the agencies Democrats seek to reform—continue operating normally while TSA, Coast Guard, FEMA, and Secret Service face crisis conditions demonstrates that modern appropriations battles no longer produce simple win-lose outcomes but instead create complex, unpredictable results that often harm the parties and agencies not directly involved in the underlying policy dispute. Future congresses will need to develop more effective mechanisms for oversight and reform that don’t rely on shutting down critical homeland security operations.

Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.