Chagos Islands Statistics 2026 | Key Facts

Chagos Islands

Where Are the Chagos Islands

The Chagos Archipelago represents one of the most remote and strategically significant island groups in the world, located in the heart of the Indian Ocean. Positioned approximately 500 kilometers south of the Maldives and roughly 1,680 kilometers northeast of Mauritius, this pristine tropical archipelago consists of seven atolls containing more than 60 individual islands. The islands stretch across a vast maritime zone, though their total land area measures just 56.1 square kilometers, making them one of the smallest yet most geopolitically important territories on Earth. The largest island, Diego Garcia, accounts for 32.5 square kilometers of this total land mass and serves as home to a major joint UK-US military base that has operated since the early 1970s.

The archipelago lies at the southernmost end of the Chagos-Laccadive Ridge, a long submarine mountain range running through the Indian Ocean. Despite their small terrestrial footprint, the Chagos Islands command a massive exclusive economic zone spanning approximately 544,000 square kilometers of ocean, larger than the land area of France. This strategic location places the islands equidistant from Africa and Asia, approximately 3,535 kilometers east of Tanzania and 1,796 kilometers southwest of India, making them a crucial waypoint for maritime routes and military operations throughout the region. The Chagos Islands were under British control since 1814 and were separated from Mauritius in 1965, three years before Mauritius gained independence in 1968.

Interesting Facts About Chagos Islands 2026

Fact Category Key Details
Treaty Signing Date 22 May 2025 – UK-Mauritius sovereignty agreement formally signed
Lease Duration 99 years initial period for Diego Garcia military base, extendable by 40 years
Annual UK Payment to Mauritius £101 million ($136 million) per year on average
Total Deal Value £3.4 billion ($4.6 billion) net present value over treaty lifetime
Forcibly Displaced Population 1,500-2,000 Chagossians removed between 1968-1973
Current Chagossian Diaspora Approximately 10,000 Chagossians worldwide
UK Chagossian Community 3,500 people in Crawley, West Sussex as of 2025
Military Personnel on Diego Garcia Approximately 2,500-4,000 personnel (mostly American)
Chagossian Trust Fund £40 million ($54 million) one-time payment
Mauritius Development Grant £45 million ($61 million) annually for 25 years
Coral Species 220-371 coral species, including endemic Ctenella chagius
Fish Species 784-1,000 fish species documented in surrounding waters
Shark Species 50+ shark species inhabit the archipelago waters
Seabird Breeding Pairs 175,000 breeding pairs across 17-18 species
Marine Protected Area 640,000 square kilometers established in 2010
Coconut Crab Density 298 crabs per hectare on Diego Garcia (world’s highest recorded)
Expected Ratification Early 2026 for UK-Mauritius treaty (not yet ratified)
Trump Criticism Date 20 January 2026 – called deal “act of great stupidity”

Data sources: UK Parliament House of Commons Library, UK House of Lords Library, Reuters, BBC News, US News & World Report, ABC News, CNBC, Euronews, Chagos Marine Protected Area documentation, academic marine research journals (2025-2026)

The 2025-2026 period marks a transformative yet controversial moment in the Chagos Islands history, with the signing of the sovereignty transfer agreement on 22 May 2025 representing the culmination of decades of international legal disputes. However, as of January 2026, the deal remains unratified by the UK Parliament, and faces renewed scrutiny after US President Donald Trump criticized it on 20 January 2026 as “an act of great stupidity,” despite his administration initially welcoming the agreement in May 2025. The £101 million annual payment structure secures Diego Garcia for continued military operations through at least 2124, with potential extension to 2164. The Chagossian population, numbering approximately 10,000 globally, remains divided between Mauritius, the Seychelles, and the United Kingdom, with many criticizing their exclusion from negotiations. The archipelago’s remarkable biodiversity is protected through the world’s largest marine protected area, though environmental data shows concerning trends with coral mortality events documented in 2015 and 2016.

Chagos Islands 2026 Geographic and Territorial Statistics

Geographic Feature Measurement/Value
Total Atolls 7 atolls
Total Islands 60+ individual islands
Total Land Area 56.1 square kilometers (21.7 square miles)
Diego Garcia Area 32.5 square kilometers (12.5 square miles)
Diego Garcia Length 24 kilometers (15 miles)
Diego Garcia Width 12 kilometers (7.5 miles) maximum
Total Area Including Lagoons 15,000+ square kilometers
Exclusive Economic Zone 544,000 square kilometers
Distance from Maldives 500 kilometers south
Distance from Mauritius 1,680 kilometers northeast
Distance from Seychelles 1,880 kilometers east
Distance from India 1,796 kilometers southwest
Distance from Tanzania 3,535 kilometers east
UK Territorial Waters Around Diego Garcia 12 nautical miles
UK Joint Decision Zone 24 nautical miles from outer islands
Year Separated from Mauritius 1965
Year British Control Began 1814 (ceded from France)

Data source: UK Government official treaty documentation, UK House of Commons Library, geographical surveys (2025-2026)

The geographic statistics of the Chagos Islands in 2026 reveal a territory of remarkable strategic importance despite its modest land area. The 56.1 square kilometers of total land is dispersed across seven atolls containing more than 60 individual islands, with Diego Garcia alone representing 57.9% of the total landmass at 32.5 square kilometers. The archipelago’s positioning in the central Indian Ocean, 500 kilometers south of the Maldives, places it at a critical maritime crossroads between Africa and Asia. Under the May 2025 sovereignty agreement, the UK secures 12 nautical miles of territorial waters around Diego Garcia, ensuring complete control over the immediate vicinity of the military installation.

The exclusive economic zone of 544,000 square kilometers represents an ocean area approximately 9,714 times larger than the actual land surface, highlighting the vast marine resources under the archipelago’s jurisdiction. The agreement between the UK and Mauritius, signed on 22 May 2025, establishes that any development within 24 nautical miles of the outer islands requires joint UK-Mauritius approval, effectively granting the UK veto power to prevent hostile nations from establishing presence near Diego Garcia. The 1,680-kilometer distance from Mauritius underscores the historical and geographical separation that has fueled sovereignty disputes since the islands were separated from Mauritian administration in 1965, three years before Mauritius achieved independence in 1968.

UK-Mauritius Sovereignty Deal 2025-2026: Treaty Financial Terms

Financial Component Amount/Details
Average Annual Lease Payment £101 million ($136 million)
Years 1-3 Annual Payment £165 million ($222 million)
Years 4-13 Annual Payment £120 million ($162 million)
Subsequent Years Indexed to inflation
Total Net Present Value £3.4 billion ($4.6 billion)
Total Over 99 Years (estimated) £10+ billion ($13.5+ billion)
Chagossian Trust Fund £40 million ($54 million) one-time
Mauritius Development Grant £45 million ($61 million) annually for 25 years
Total Development Grants £1.125 billion ($1.52 billion) over 25 years
Percentage of Defense Budget 0.2% annually
Comparison Cost Less than running one aircraft carrier without aircraft for one year
Deal Signed 22 May 2025
Ratification Status Not yet ratified as of January 2026
Parliamentary Scrutiny Period 21 sitting days ending 3 July 2025

Data source: UK House of Commons Library, UK House of Lords Library, Library of Congress analysis, Reuters, BBC News (2025-2026)

The financial structure of the UK-Mauritius Chagos deal in 2025-2026 represents one of the most significant long-term lease agreements in modern British diplomatic history, valued at £3.4 billion in net present value. The £101 million average annual payment includes a frontloaded structure with £165 million paid in each of the first three years, followed by £120 million annually for years four through thirteen, with all subsequent payments indexed to inflation. Over the full 99-year lease period, total payments are estimated to exceed £10 billion, though the UK government emphasizes this represents merely 0.2% of the annual defense budget, equivalent to less than the cost of operating a single aircraft carrier without aircraft for one year. The deal was signed on 22 May 2025 after overcoming a last-minute High Court injunction sought by Chagossian activists.

Beyond the lease payments, the agreement establishes a £40 million trust fund for displaced Chagossians, administered by a 12-member board with seven Chagossian members ensuring majority representation. Additionally, the UK commits £45 million annually for 25 years to fund development projects in Mauritius, totaling £1.125 billion. However, criticism has emerged that the £40 million Chagossian trust fund represents less than 0.5% of the total financial arrangement, with human rights organizations arguing it falls far short of adequate reparations for the 1,500-2,000 people forcibly displaced between 1968-1973. As of January 2026, the treaty has not yet been ratified by the UK Parliament, following President Trump’s criticism on 20 January 2026 calling the deal “an act of great stupidity,” despite his administration welcoming it eight months earlier in May 2025.

Chagos Islands 2026 Population and Demographic Statistics

Population Category Number
Current Permanent Civilian Population 0 (no indigenous inhabitants since 1973)
Military and Support Personnel (Diego Garcia) 2,500-4,000 (mostly American)
Forcibly Displaced (1968-1973) 1,500-2,000 Chagossians
Total Global Chagossian Diaspora ~10,000 people
Chagossians in United Kingdom ~3,500 (mainly in Crawley, West Sussex)
Chagossians in Mauritius ~4,000-5,000
Chagossians in Seychelles ~1,500-2,000
UK Chagossians with Mauritian Citizenship 94% (as of April 2025)
Chagossian Trust Fund Board Members 12 total (7 Chagossians, 3 Mauritius, 1 UK, 1 Seychelles)
Estimated Chagossian Descendants Several thousand (exact number undocumented)
Resettlement Eligibility Criteria Born on archipelago before 31 December 1973, or children of those born before that date
Islands Permitted for Resettlement Peros Banhos and Salomon atolls only (not Diego Garcia)
Completion of Decolonization 1968 Mauritius independence (without Chagos Islands)

Data source: UK Parliament debates, Reuters, BBC News, Human Rights Watch, academic demographic studies (2025-2026)

The demographic statistics of the Chagos Islands in 2026 reveal a territory with no permanent civilian population but significant military presence and a globally dispersed indigenous community fighting for their right to return. The zero permanent civilian residents reflects the complete removal of the Chagossian population between 1968-1973, when the British forcibly evicted 1,500-2,000 people to make way for the Diego Garcia military base. Today, approximately 2,500-4,000 military and support personnel, predominantly American, occupy Diego Garcia, making it the only inhabited island in the archipelago. The Chagossian diaspora of approximately 10,000 people is scattered primarily across three nations: the United Kingdom (3,500, mainly in Crawley, West Sussex), Mauritius (4,000-5,000), and the Seychelles (1,500-2,000).

The May 2025 sovereignty agreement establishes conditions for potential resettlement, with eligibility limited to those born on the archipelago before 31 December 1973 and their direct descendants. However, resettlement is restricted to the Peros Banhos and Salomon atolls only, explicitly excluding Diego Garcia, which remains under exclusive UK-US military control for at least 99 years. As of April 2025, 94% of UK-based Chagossians also hold Mauritian citizenship, though many have expressed concern about being required to accept Mauritian citizenship to participate in resettlement programs despite having no historical connection to Mauritius beyond colonial administration. The £40 million trust fund will be managed by a 12-member board with seven Chagossian representatives ensuring majority control, though critics argue this amount represents inadequate compensation for decades of displacement and represents less than 0.5% of the total £3.4 billion financial arrangement between the UK and Mauritius.

Chagos Islands 2026 Military Base Statistics

Military Infrastructure Details
Base Name Diego Garcia Naval Support Facility
Operating Countries United States and United Kingdom
Total Personnel 2,500-4,000 (approximately, mostly American)
Primary Function Naval support facility, airfield, communications station
Original Lease Year 1966 (secret agreement)
Official Base Establishment Early 1970s
Previous Lease Expiration 2036 (extended from 2016 agreement)
New Lease Duration (2025 Agreement) 99 years (extendable by 40 years)
Lease Expires 2124 (potentially 2164 with extension)
Runway Length 3,660 meters (12,000 feet)
Harbor Depth Deep-water port capable of accommodating aircraft carriers
Strategic Assets Deployed B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, naval vessels, reconnaissance aircraft
Recent Military Operations Houthi rebel airstrikes in Yemen (2025-2026)
Operational Regions Supported Middle East, South Asia, East Africa
UK Territorial Control 12 nautical miles around Diego Garcia
UK Veto Authority 24 nautical miles from outer islands (joint decision zone)
US Description of Base “All but indispensable platform” for regional security

Data source: US Navy, UK Ministry of Defence, Reuters, ABC News, BBC News, treaty documentation (2025-2026)

The Diego Garcia military base statistics for 2026 underscore its position as one of the most strategically vital American military installations globally. The base currently supports 2,500-4,000 personnel, predominantly American service members and contractors, operating a facility that the US government describes as an “all but indispensable platform” for security operations across the Middle East, South Asia, and East Africa. The installation features a 3,660-meter runway capable of handling the largest military aircraft, including B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, which were recently deployed to Diego Garcia during 2025-2026 airstrike campaigns targeting Houthi rebels in Yemen. The deep-water harbor accommodates aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines, providing critical logistical support for naval operations throughout the Indian Ocean region.

The May 2025 sovereignty agreement fundamentally restructures the legal basis for the base’s operation, transforming it from a colonial holding to a 99-year lease arrangement valued at £101 million annually. The new treaty, signed on 22 May 2025, grants the UK exclusive rights over 12 nautical miles of territorial waters surrounding Diego Garcia and effective veto power over any development within 24 nautical miles of the outer islands to prevent hostile nations from establishing nearby presence. The original 1966 secret agreement between the UK and US was extended in 2016 to 2036, but the new arrangement secures base operations through 2124, with possibility of extension to 2164. However, as of January 2026, the deal faces uncertainty after President Trump’s criticism on 20 January 2026, calling the sovereignty transfer “an act of great stupidity,” despite US Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcoming the agreement in May 2025 as securing “long-term, stable and effective operation” of the facility critical to regional and global security.

Chagos Islands 2026 Marine Biodiversity Statistics

Biodiversity Category Count/Details
Coral Species 220-371 species (among world’s healthiest)
Endemic Coral Species Ctenella chagius
Fish Species 784-1,000 species documented
Shark Species 50+ species
Seabird Species 17-18 breeding species
Seabird Breeding Pairs 175,000 pairs annually
Reef-Building Coral Species ~300 species
Marine Protected Area Size 640,000 square kilometers (247,000 square miles)
MPA Establishment Year 2010 (unilaterally by UK)
MPA Global Ranking One of world’s largest no-take marine reserves
Coconut Crab Density (Diego Garcia) 298 crabs per hectare (world’s highest recorded)
Coral Mortality Event Years 2015-2016
Coral Loss from 2015-2016 Event More than 66% (two-thirds) died
Protected Marine Mammals Multiple cetacean species, including whales and dolphins
Turtle Nesting Sites Several species including green and hawksbill turtles
MPA Future Status Under 2025 Deal To transition to Mauritian administration with UK support

Data source: Chagos Marine Protected Area documentation, marine biology research publications, UK Government environmental reports, Mongabay environmental journalism (2025-2026)

The marine biodiversity statistics for the Chagos Islands in 2026 demonstrate an ecosystem of extraordinary global significance, with the 640,000-square-kilometer marine protected area established in 2010 ranking among the world’s largest no-take zones. The archipelago supports 220-371 coral species, including the endemic Ctenella chagius found nowhere else on Earth, alongside approximately 300 reef-building coral species that marine biologists consider among the healthiest remaining reef systems globally. The waters surrounding the Chagos Islands harbor 784-1,000 documented fish species and over 50 shark species, including several threatened varieties that have largely disappeared from more heavily fished areas of the Indian Ocean. The islands provide critical breeding habitat for 175,000 seabird pairs representing 17-18 species, making the archipelago one of the most important seabird colonies in the region.

However, environmental challenges emerged during 2015-2016 when a major coral bleaching and mortality event killed more than 66% (two-thirds) of the archipelago’s corals, linked to rising ocean temperatures and climate change impacts. Despite this setback, the Chagos reefs have shown resilience and recovery potential due to the strict protection afforded by the no-take marine reserve status that prohibits all commercial fishing. The Diego Garcia atoll hosts the world’s highest recorded density of coconut crabs at 298 individuals per hectare, a testament to the absence of human predation. Under the May 2025 sovereignty agreement, management of the marine protected area will transition from UK to Mauritian administration, with both nations committed to maintaining protection standards. However, environmental advocates have expressed concern about potential pressure for commercial exploitation, including deep-sea mining, commercial fishing, or unsustainable tourism development, warning that opening the Chagos Archipelago to such activities “could be one of the greatest environmental crises we see on our planet.”

Chagos Islands 2026 Legal and Sovereignty Timeline

Year/Date Legal Event
1814 Chagos Islands ceded from France to British control
1965 UK separates Chagos from Mauritius, creates British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT)
1966 Secret UK-US agreement for military base on Diego Garcia
1968 Mauritius gains independence (without Chagos Islands)
1968-1973 1,500-2,000 Chagossians forcibly removed from islands
Early 1970s Diego Garcia military base becomes operational
2000s Chagossians begin UK court cases for right to return
2010 UK unilaterally establishes 640,000 km² marine protected area
2016 UK-US base lease extended to 2036
2019 International Court of Justice (ICJ) rules UK must end colonial administration
2019 UN General Assembly demands UK withdraw from Chagos within 6 months
3 November 2022 UK and Mauritius announce sovereignty negotiations
3 October 2024 UK agrees in principle to hand sovereignty to Mauritius
13 January 2025 UK-Mauritius joint statement on progress
February 2025 Trump initially expresses support for deal
May 2025 Mauritian government rejects initial draft, demands better terms
22 May 2025 Final treaty signed after High Court injunction overturned
22 May 2025 Treaty laid before UK Parliament for scrutiny
4 June 2025 Two early day motions opposing ratification tabled
30 June 2025 House of Lords debates two motions against ratification
3 July 2025 21-day parliamentary scrutiny period ends
15 July 2025 Diego Garcia Military Base and British Indian Ocean Territory Bill introduced
December 2025 Mauritius approves legislation to establish £40 million trust fund
20 January 2026 Trump criticizes deal as “act of great stupidity”
Early 2026 Expected ratification (pending, not yet completed)

Data source: UK Parliament, International Court of Justice, UN General Assembly resolutions, Reuters, BBC News, Library of Congress (2025-2026)

The legal and sovereignty timeline of the Chagos Islands through 2026 chronicles a complex journey from colonial possession to contested territory to a negotiated sovereignty transfer still awaiting final ratification. The 1965 separation of the Chagos Archipelago from Mauritius, three years before Mauritian independence in 1968, created the foundational dispute that persisted for over 60 years. The secret 1966 UK-US agreement enabled establishment of the Diego Garcia military base in the early 1970s, requiring the forced removal of 1,500-2,000 Chagossians between 1968-1973, an act later condemned by the International Court of Justice and multiple human rights organizations. The ICJ’s 2019 advisory opinion ruled the decolonization of Mauritius was not lawfully completed when the UK separated the Chagos Islands, calling on Britain to end its administration “as rapidly as possible.”

Following the ICJ ruling, the UN General Assembly demanded in 2019 that the UK withdraw from Chagos within six months, though this non-binding resolution was not implemented. Formal negotiations began on 3 November 2022, culminating in the 3 October 2024 in-principle agreement to transfer sovereignty. The final treaty, signed on 22 May 2025 after a last-minute High Court injunction was overturned, underwent a 21-day parliamentary scrutiny period ending 3 July 2025, during which opposition motions in both Houses of Parliament failed to block the agreement. A bill to implement the treaty, the Diego Garcia Military Base and British Indian Ocean Territory Bill, was introduced on 15 July 2025 with second reading scheduled for September 2025. However, as of January 2026, the treaty remains unratified after President Trump’s 20 January 2026 reversal, calling the deal “an act of great stupidity” despite his February 2025 preliminary support and his administration’s May 2025 official welcome of the agreement.

Chagos Islands 2026 Political Controversy and Opposition

Opposition Source Key Criticisms
US President Donald Trump (Jan 2026) Called deal “act of great stupidity” and “total weakness”
UK Conservative Party 107 MPs signed early day motion opposing ratification
Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch “Complete self-sabotage” weakening UK security
Conservative Shadow Defence Minister James Cartlidge “Total, abject surrender” and “fundamental betrayal”
Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage “Worst ever deal in history by this country”
The Times Editorial “Lawyers’ stitch up, a shameful sell-out”
The Daily Telegraph Editorial “Starmer’s Chagos surrender is a national disgrace”
Chagossian Community (portion) Excluded from negotiations, no guaranteed right to return
Human Rights Watch £40 million inadequate, forced displacement continues
UN Committee on Elimination of Racial Discrimination Risks “perpetuating longstanding violations of Chagossian rights”
Security Concerns Mauritius ties to China and Russia, Beijing police station presence
Legal Challenges High Court injunction by Bernadette Dugasse and Bertrice Pompe (overturned)
Great British PAC Conservative-linked organization launched legal action (June 2025)
Chagossian UN Submission (June 2025) Challenged legitimacy, argued deal negotiated without consent

Data source: UK Parliament debates, Reuters, BBC News, CNBC, The Times, The Daily Telegraph, Human Rights Watch, UN Committee reports (2025-2026)

The political controversy surrounding the Chagos deal in 2025-2026 has intensified dramatically, particularly following President Trump’s 20 January 2026 reversal, despite his administration welcoming the agreement eight months earlier in May 2025. Trump’s characterization of the sovereignty transfer as “an act of great stupidity” and claim that “China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness” has emboldened UK opposition, with Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch calling it “complete self-sabotage” that “weakens UK security.” The Conservative Party mobilized 107 MPs who signed an early day motion opposing ratification in June 2025, while Shadow Defence Minister James Cartlidge described it as a “total, abject surrender” and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage declared it the “worst ever deal in history.” The British press has been similarly critical, with The Times calling it a “lawyers’ stitch up” and The Daily Telegraph labeling it a “national disgrace.”

Beyond political opposition, the deal faces severe criticism from human rights organizations and the Chagossian community itself. Human Rights Watch condemned the £40 million trust fund as inadequate compensation representing less than 0.5% of the £10+ billion total financial arrangement, noting that resettlement is restricted to outer islands while Diego Garcia remains off-limits, effectively “entrenching the crime of forced displacement.” The UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination reported in December 2025 that the agreement should not be ratified as it risks “perpetuating longstanding violations of the Chagossian people’s rights.” Chagossian activists submitted a legal challenge to the UN Human Rights Council in June 2025, arguing the deal was “negotiated without their consent.” A High Court injunction sought by Bernadette Dugasse and Bertrice Pompe, British nationals born on Diego Garcia, temporarily blocked the treaty signing on 22 May 2025 but was overturned hours later, though their criticism that Chagossians were excluded from negotiations continues to resonate throughout the displaced community.

Chagos Islands 2026 Environmental and Climate Challenges

Environmental Factor Status/Impact
2015-2016 Coral Bleaching Event 66%+ coral mortality
Rising Ocean Temperatures Increasing frequency of bleaching events
Climate Change Threat Level High risk to low-lying atolls
Maximum Atoll Elevation Less than 5 meters above sea level
Sea Level Rise Projections Threatens long-term habitability
Illegal Fishing Pressure Ongoing threat despite MPA status
Commercial Exploitation Risk Potential deep-sea mining, fishing, unsustainable tourism
Plastic Pollution Documented in remote areas despite minimal human presence
Protected Area Size 640,000 square kilometers no-take zone
Coral Recovery Rate Slow but ongoing since 2016 bleaching
Enforcement Challenges Vast area difficult to patrol effectively
Future Management Uncertainty Transition from UK to Mauritius administration
Environmental Advocacy Concerns Worry about commercial pressure under new sovereignty
Coconut Crab Population Stable at world-record density (298/hectare)
Turtle Nesting Sites Active but vulnerable to disturbance

Data source: Marine biology research publications, Chagos MPA reports, climate science studies, Mongabay environmental reporting (2025-2026)

The environmental challenges facing the Chagos Islands in 2026 center on climate change impacts and uncertainties about future protection standards under changing sovereignty. The catastrophic 2015-2016 coral bleaching event killed more than 66% of the archipelago’s corals, demonstrating the vulnerability of even the most pristine reef systems to rising ocean temperatures. While the Chagos reefs have shown resilience and gradual recovery since 2016, climate scientists warn that increasing frequency of bleaching events driven by global warming poses an existential threat to the coral ecosystems that support the extraordinary marine biodiversity. The low-lying nature of the atolls, with maximum elevations less than 5 meters above sea level, makes the islands themselves vulnerable to sea level rise projections, potentially threatening their long-term habitability.

The May 2025 sovereignty agreement introduces uncertainty about future environmental management, as administration of the 640,000-square-kilometer marine protected area transitions from UK to Mauritian control. Environmental advocates have expressed serious concerns that Mauritius may face pressure to permit commercial exploitation, including deep-sea mining, industrial fishing, or mass tourism development, activities currently prohibited under the strict no-take reserve status. Mongabay environmental journalism reported that some environmental groups warn opening the Chagos Archipelago to commercial activities “could be one of the greatest environmental crises we see on our planet,” given the archipelago represents one of the last remaining pristine marine ecosystems. The challenge of patrolling and enforcing protections across 640,000 square kilometers of ocean remains significant, with illegal fishing continuing despite MPA status, and plastic pollution documented even in these remote waters.

Chagos Islands 2026 Economic and Development Projections

Economic Factor Amount/Details
UK Defense Spending on Diego Garcia Approximately £50 million annually (estimated operational costs)
Mauritius Annual Lease Revenue £101 million ($136 million) average
Mauritius Development Grant £45 million ($61 million) annually for 25 years
Total Mauritian Revenue (Year 1-3) £210 million ($283 million) annually
Total Mauritian Revenue (Year 4-13) £165 million ($223 million) annually
Mauritius GDP (2024) Approximately $15.2 billion
Lease Revenue as % of GDP ~1.4% of Mauritian GDP (initial years)
Chagossian Trust Fund £40 million ($54 million) one-time
Estimated Chagossian Per Capita (Trust Fund) £4,000 ($5,400) per eligible person
Resettlement Infrastructure Costs Unknown (feasibility study underway)
Outer Islands Development Limited under treaty (joint UK-Mauritius approval required)
Tourism Potential Restricted, ecotourism only permitted
Fishing Rights Value Potentially hundreds of millions annually if exploited
Deep-Sea Mining Potential Unknown, prohibited under current MPA
UK Cost-Benefit Assessment Favorable compared to alternative basing options

Data source: UK Ministry of Defence estimates, Mauritius national statistics, Library of Congress analysis, financial news reports (2025-2026)

The economic projections for the Chagos Islands in 2026 reveal substantial financial flows that will significantly impact Mauritius’s economy while representing a relatively modest investment for the UK’s strategic interests. The £101 million average annual lease payment, combined with the £45 million annual development grant, will inject £165-210 million into Mauritius annually depending on the phase of the agreement. For an economy with a GDP of approximately $15.2 billion, the initial lease revenue represents roughly 1.4% of national GDP, a significant economic boost that supporters argue will fund infrastructure, education, and social programs. The frontloaded payment structure, with £165 million in each of the first three years, provides Mauritius with substantial upfront capital.

However, economic analyses highlight the asymmetry in value distribution. The £40 million Chagossian trust fund, divided among approximately 10,000 eligible individuals and descendants, translates to roughly £4,000 per capita, which human rights organizations argue is grossly inadequate compensation for 50+ years of displacement and lost livelihoods. The UK’s assessment views the £101 million annual payment as favorable compared to alternative basing options, noting it represents less than 0.2% of annual defense spending and less than the cost of operating one aircraft carrier. The treaty restricts Mauritius’s ability to commercially develop the outer islands, requiring joint UK approval for any development within 24 nautical miles, effectively preventing activities that could generate additional revenue but might compromise the Diego Garcia base security. The 640,000-square-kilometer fishing zone could potentially generate hundreds of millions annually if opened to commercial exploitation, though environmental advocates warn this would devastate the pristine marine ecosystem currently protected under the no-take reserve status.

Chagos Islands 2026 Future Resettlement Plans and Limitations

Resettlement Aspect Details
Islands Permitted for Resettlement Peros Banhos and Salomon atolls only
Diego Garcia Access Prohibited for permanent civilian settlement
Eligibility Criteria Born on archipelago before 31 December 1973 or direct descendants
Estimated Eligible Population Several thousand (exact number undocumented)
Feasibility Study Currently underway by Mauritian government
Infrastructure Requirements Housing, water supply, medical facilities, communications
Estimated Infrastructure Costs Tens of millions of pounds (unbudgeted)
Environmental Assessment Required before any resettlement
UK Veto Authority 24 nautical miles from all outer islands
Resettlement Funding Source Not clearly specified in treaty
Timeline No specific deadline established
Visiting Rights to Diego Garcia Under discussion, no guaranteed access
Chagossian Community Support Mixed – some support, many oppose deal
Economic Viability Concerns Limited economic opportunities on outer islands
Trust Fund Administration 12-member board (7 Chagossians, 3 Mauritius, 1 UK, 1 Seychelles)

Data source: UK Parliament reports, Mauritius government statements, Chagossian advocacy groups, treaty documentation (2025-2026)

The future resettlement plans for the Chagos Islands in 2026 present a complex and controversial framework that many Chagossians view as inadequate and unjust. The May 2025 sovereignty agreement permits resettlement only on the Peros Banhos and Salomon atolls, explicitly excluding Diego Garcia, the largest island and the birthplace of most displaced Chagossians. This restriction means that even if resettlement proceeds, returnees cannot access their ancestral homes, gravesites, and the island with the most developed infrastructure and resources. Eligibility is limited to individuals born on the archipelago before 31 December 1973 and their direct descendants, potentially covering several thousand people though exact numbers remain undocumented. The Mauritian government is conducting a feasibility study to assess infrastructure requirements, including housing, freshwater systems, medical facilities, and communications networks, with costs estimated in the tens of millions of pounds.

Critical challenges undermine the viability and appeal of resettlement under current conditions. The outer islands lack basic infrastructure, having been uninhabited since the 1970s, requiring substantial investment before any permanent settlement could occur. The treaty does not clearly specify funding sources for resettlement infrastructure, raising questions about whether the £40 million trust fund would be depleted on construction rather than providing direct compensation to displaced people. The UK maintains veto authority over all development within 24 nautical miles of the outer islands, potentially restricting economic activities that could make resettlement economically sustainable. Environmental restrictions under the marine protected area prohibit commercial fishing and most industrial activities, leaving limited economic opportunities for potential returnees. Many Chagossians, particularly those in the UK who have established lives in places like Crawley over 50 years, express little interest in relocating to remote islands without modern amenities, healthcare, or economic prospects. The £40 million trust fund, administered by a 12-member board with seven Chagossian representatives, is intended to support both resettlement and compensation, though critics argue this amount is inadequate for either purpose given it represents less than £4,000 per eligible person and must also fund infrastructure development.

Chagos Islands 2026 International Relations and Strategic Implications

Strategic Factor Details
US Strategic Assessment “All but indispensable platform” for regional operations
Operational Reach Middle East, South Asia, East Africa, Indian Ocean
Recent Operations Yemen Houthi airstrikes (2025-2026)
China Maritime Presence Expanding Indian Ocean influence
Russia Naval Activity Increasing presence in region
Mauritius-China Relations Close economic ties, Belt and Road Initiative participation
Chinese Police Station in Mauritius One of 100+ worldwide (security concern)
Mauritius-India Relations Strong diplomatic and security ties
UK Strategic Priority Maintaining Indo-Pacific presence
UN ICJ Ruling (2019) UK must end colonial administration
UN General Assembly Vote (2019) 116 countries demanded UK withdrawal
International Law Compliance Deal partially addresses ICJ ruling
African Union Position Supported Mauritian sovereignty claim
Commonwealth Relations Potential tension between UK, Mauritius
US-UK “Special Relationship” Tested by Trump criticism despite treaty securing base
Regional Power Balance Agreement aims to prevent hostile power access

Data source: US Department of Defense statements, UK Foreign Office, UN reports, international relations analysis, news reporting (2025-2026)

The international relations and strategic implications of the Chagos deal in 2026 extend far beyond the 60 islands themselves, touching on great power competition in the Indian Ocean and the future of the rules-based international order. The Diego Garcia base serves as what the US government describes as an “all but indispensable platform” for military operations across the Middle East, South Asia, and East Africa, with recent deployment of B-2 Spirit stealth bombers for 2025-2026 strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen demonstrating its ongoing operational importance. The agreement aims to secure this capability through 2124 while simultaneously addressing the 2019 International Court of Justice ruling that Britain’s continued administration of Chagos violated international law and impeded the decolonization of Mauritius. The UN General Assembly voted 116-6 in 2019 demanding UK withdrawal, placing Britain in the uncomfortable position of defying international legal opinion.

However, the strategic calculus is complicated by Mauritius’s close relations with China, including participation in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative and the presence of one of over 100 Chinese police stations worldwide, raising Western security concerns. Critics argue that sovereignty transfer could provide China indirect influence near critical maritime trade routes through which much of Asia’s oil supply passes. President Trump’s 20 January 2026 criticism specifically cited this concern, claiming “China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness.” Yet supporters counter that the treaty’s 99-year lease effectively maintains Western control while addressing legitimate postcolonial grievances and strengthening Britain’s position in the Indo-Pacific region by resolving a source of international criticism. The UK’s maintenance of veto authority over development within 24 nautical miles of outer islands specifically aims to prevent hostile nations from establishing presence near Diego Garcia. The African Union and 116 countries that supported Mauritius’s sovereignty claim view the agreement as long-overdue decolonization, while Western allies remain divided, with the US administration’s position apparently shifting between May 2025 (supportive) and January 2026 (critical) under Trump’s changing assessment.

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