AI Shopping in America 2026
Something fundamental has shifted in the way Americans shop. What began as a handful of early adopters asking ChatGPT for product recommendations has, in the space of roughly two years, become a mass-market behaviour that is reshaping every layer of the retail industry — from how consumers discover products to how they compare prices, read reviews, and ultimately make buying decisions. In 2026, the data no longer describes a trend on the horizon. It describes a present reality: more than 77% of US consumers now use AI tools at some point in their shopping journey, generative AI traffic to US retail websites grew 393% year over year in Q1 2026 alone, and AI-referred shoppers are converting at rates that are 42% better than traffic arriving from traditional sources like paid search and email. The US AI retail technology market is estimated at $16.56 billion in 2026 and is on track to reach $50.73 billion by 2030 — a number that tells you everything about where the industry’s investment is flowing and why.
What makes 2026 a genuine inflection point rather than simply the next chapter in a gradual adoption curve is the emergence of agentic commerce — AI systems that do not merely assist shoppers but act on their behalf, autonomously discovering products, comparing options, checking availability, and in some cases completing purchases without the consumer visiting a single website. Morgan Stanley estimates that agentic shoppers could account for between $190 billion and $385 billion in US e-commerce spending by 2030, representing 10% to 20% of the entire US online retail market. 50 million daily shopping queries are already being processed by ChatGPT alone. The technology is real, the adoption is measurable, and the commercial consequences are arriving faster than most retailers had planned for. At the same time, consumer trust in AI remains selectively thin: most Americans want AI to help them shop, but the mode amount a consumer would authorise AI to spend autonomously is $0 — a tension that defines the current state of AI shopping in the US better than any single statistic.
Key Facts About AI Shoppers in the US 2026
FAST FACTS — AI Shopping in the United States 2026
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US consumers using AI in shopping journey : 77%+
Consumers who have used GenAI for shopping : 68% (ICSC/McKinsey)
AI traffic to US retail sites — Q1 2026 YoY : +393%
AI traffic during Holiday 2025 (Nov–Dec) YoY : +693%
AI-referred shopper conversion rate uplift : +42% (vs non-AI, Mar 2026)
Revenue per visit — AI vs non-AI (Mar 2026) : AI is 37% higher
AI influence on global holiday spend (2025) : $262 billion
US AI retail market size (2026) : $16.56 billion
US AI retail market projected (2030) : $50.73 billion
Morgan Stanley agentic commerce forecast 2030 : $190B–$385B US e-commerce
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| Key Fact | Statistic |
|---|---|
| US consumers using AI in their shopping journey | 77%+ (Exploding Topics, 2026) |
| Consumers who used AI tool while shopping (past 3 months) | 68% (ICSC/McKinsey, 2026) |
| Consumers who have used GenAI for online shopping | 61% (Capital One Shopping, 2026) |
| Consumers planning to use GenAI to shop in 2026 | 80% |
| AI traffic to US retail sites — Q1 2026 YoY growth | +393% (Adobe Analytics, April 2026) |
| AI traffic — Holiday 2025 season YoY growth | +693% (Adobe Analytics, January 2026) |
| AI-referred conversion rate vs non-AI traffic (March 2026) | 42% better (Adobe Analytics) |
| Revenue per visit — AI-referred vs non-AI (March 2026) | 37% higher from AI traffic |
| AI-referred shoppers — time spent on site | 45% more than non-AI shoppers |
| AI-referred shoppers — bounce rate | 33% lower than average |
| AI influence on global online holiday spend (2025) | $262 billion (Salesforce, 1.5B shoppers) |
| US online holiday sales — 2025 | $257.8 billion (Digital Commerce 360) |
| US AI retail technology market — 2026 | $16.56 billion |
| US AI retail market projected size — 2030 | $50.73 billion |
| Global AI retail market — 2026 | $54.24 billion |
| Global AI retail market projected — 2032 | $287.1 billion |
| Daily shopping queries on ChatGPT | 50 million |
| Average consumer spend using AI in 2025 | $408 CAD across ~8 transactions |
Source: Adobe Analytics Holiday Shopping Report, January 2026 (1 trillion US retail site visits tracked); Salesforce 2025 Holiday Shopping Report, January 2026 (1.5 billion shoppers); ICSC/McKinsey Consumer AI Survey, 2026; Capital One Shopping — AI Shopping Statistics Report, 2026; Morgan Stanley AlphaWise Research, November 2025
The scale of the shift these numbers describe is worth sitting with for a moment. Adobe Analytics’ dataset — drawn from over 1 trillion visits to US retail websites — is the largest independent measurement of AI shopping traffic in existence, which makes its findings particularly authoritative. The jump from AI traffic converting 38% worse than standard sources in March 2025 to converting 42% better in March 2026 is not a gradual improvement — it is a complete reversal in the space of twelve months. Twelve months ago, a shopper arriving from an AI tool was less likely to buy than one arriving from a Google search or a promotional email. Today, the opposite is true by a significant margin, and revenue per visit from AI-referred traffic is 37% above non-AI sources. This matters commercially because it means AI shopping is not just a discovery channel that diverts consumers away from purchase — it is a channel that actively improves the quality of buyers who ultimately reach retail sites.
The $262 billion in global holiday spend influenced by AI and agents during the 2025 season — representing roughly 20% of all online global retail sales in that period — tells a complementary story from the supply side. Salesforce’s figure was drawn from 1.5 billion shoppers across 89 countries, and while “influenced” covers a broad definition (AI appeared somewhere in the purchase path, not necessarily at the point of transaction), the scale confirms that AI is now embedded in the mainstream shopping funnel at a level that is commercially decisive, not experimental. Retailers who ran their own branded AI shopping agents during the 2025 holiday season grew sales 59% faster than those without them (6.2% YoY vs 3.9%) — the clearest evidence yet that investment in AI shopper tools is generating returns that are measurable against the bottom line.
How US Consumers Use AI for Shopping in 2026
WHAT US CONSUMERS USE AI FOR — SHOPPING (2026 surveys)
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Research products before buying
██████████████████████████████████████████████ 78%
Compare brands, models, prices or reviews
████████████████████████████████████████ 62%
Find discounts and coupons
████████████████████████████████████████ 73% (say they would)
Get gift ideas
████████████████████████████ 49%
Conduct shopping research (Adobe survey, Aug 2025)
████████████████████████████████████████████ 53%
Delegate order tracking / recommendations to AI
████████████████████████████████████████████ 67%
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| AI Shopping Use Case | Consumer Share | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Used AI to research products | 78% | Bluestone PIM Survey, March 2026 (n=201) |
| Use AI to research most purchases | 29% | Bluestone PIM Survey, March 2026 |
| Used AI to compare brands, models, prices, or reviews | 62% | ICSC/McKinsey, 2026 |
| Would use AI chatbot to find discounts and coupons | 73% | Capital One Shopping, 2026 |
| Used AI to get gift ideas for loved ones | 49% | Capital One Shopping, 2026 |
| Turn to AI first for shopping research | 53% | Adobe Digital Insights, August 2025 (n=5,000+ US adults) |
| Ready to delegate order tracking and recommendations to AI | 67% | Zendesk CX Trends, 2025 |
| Use AI for product discovery | 45% want product ideas from AI | Commercetools survey, 2026 |
| Use AI to summarise product reviews | 37% | Commercetools survey, 2026 |
| Use AI to compare prices specifically | 32% | Commercetools survey, 2026 |
| Trust AI to compare prices | 65% | Commercetools survey, 2026 |
| Want best-reviewed product (not cheapest) from AI | 53% | Bluestone PIM Survey, 2026 |
| More specific search inputs because of AI | 20% | Gartner survey, February 2026 (n=328) |
| Phrase searches as questions more due to AI | 19% | Gartner survey, February 2026 |
| Rely on AI summaries for product/service research | 17% | Gartner survey, February 2026 |
| Use AI chatbots to search for new products to buy | 16% | Gartner survey, February 2026 |
Source: Bluestone PIM Consumer Survey, March 2026; Adobe Digital Insights, August 2025; ICSC/McKinsey Consumer Survey, 2026; Gartner surveys (February and January 2026); Zendesk CX Trends Report, 2025; Commercetools 2026 survey
The pattern that emerges from these use-case statistics is consistent across every survey source: product research is where AI shopping dominates, and autonomous purchasing is where it has barely begun. The 78% of consumers who have used AI to research products, the 62% who use it to compare brands and prices, and the 53% who now turn to AI first for shopping research all point to AI having displaced — or at minimum, supplemented — the traditional “Google and browse” research process that defined online shopping for the previous twenty years. The Gartner finding that 20% of consumers are now phrasing their search inputs more specifically because of AI, and that 19% phrase them as questions rather than keywords, hints at a deeper structural change: AI is not just being layered on top of existing search behaviour, it is changing how people mentally frame the act of finding products altogether.
The 73% of consumers who say they would use an AI chatbot to find discounts and coupons stands out as a particularly commercially actionable number. Price discovery is one of the oldest and highest-friction tasks in online shopping — consumers have historically managed it by opening a dozen browser tabs, running price-comparison tools, or visiting coupon aggregator sites. The fact that nearly three-quarters of shoppers are prepared to delegate this task to an AI assistant suggests that any retailer whose pricing and promotions are not visible to AI tools is effectively invisible during one of the highest-intent moments in the consumer journey. The Bluestone PIM finding that 53% of consumers want AI to find them the best-reviewed product, not the cheapest, also matters: it signals that AI shoppers are not purely price-driven bargain hunters but quality-conscious consumers who are using AI to filter complexity rather than just minimise cost.
AI Shopper Demographics by Generation in the US 2026
AI SHOPPING USAGE — BY GENERATION (United States 2026)
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Gen Z (used AI for a purchase — past year)
████████████████████████████████████████████ 61%
Gen Z (used some form of GenAI for shopping)
████████████████████████████████████████████████ 7 in 10 (~70%)
Millennials (used AI for online shopping)
████████████████████████████████████ 46%
Millennials (plan to try AI shopping)
████████ 12% (additional)
Gen X / Under-45 using AI to research purchases
████████████████████████████████████████ 58%
Baby Boomers (have tried AI shopping)
████████████████████ 26%
Baby Boomers (interested in trying AI shopping)
█████████ 18%
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| Demographic / Generation Metric | Data |
|---|---|
| Gen Z — used AI tools for a purchase (past year) | 61% |
| Gen Z — used any form of GenAI to assist with shopping | ~70% (7 in 10) |
| Gen Z — prefer AI platforms over search engines for product research | 33% (vs 37% still using search) |
| Gen Z — use AI specifically for product discovery | 58% |
| Gen Z — trust AI recommendations more than human ones | 23% |
| Gen Z — find chatbots useful for shopping | 83% |
| Millennials — most AI-engaged generation overall | ~80% used AI tools in past year (Numerator) |
| Millennials — used AI for online shopping | 46% |
| Millennials — plan to try AI shopping | Additional 12% |
| Millennials — AI improves their efficiency | 75% (highest of any generation) |
| Millennials — trust AI recommendations over human ones | 27% |
| Gen Z and Millennials — use AI platforms daily | 46% |
| Under-45s using AI to research purchases | 58% |
| Baby Boomers — have tried AI shopping | 26% |
| Baby Boomers — interested in trying AI shopping | 18% |
| Americans who made a purchase using AI (past month) | ~23% (Morgan Stanley) |
| Consumers who used AI for holiday shopping (2024) | 88% (Capital One Shopping) |
Source: Capital One Shopping — AI Shopping Statistics Report, 2026; Numerator — AI Consumer Trends 2026 (generational study); Morgan Stanley AlphaWise Research, November 2025; IESE Business School research (Gen Z chatbot data)
The generational data on AI shopping in the US paints a picture of a behaviour that has achieved genuine mainstream status among younger adults and is growing rapidly among older demographics — but where the nature of engagement differs meaningfully by age group. Gen Z’s 61% adoption rate for AI-assisted purchasing masks an even more striking underlying trend: 33% of Gen Z shoppers now prefer AI platforms over search engines for product research, nearly matching the 37% who still use search engines — a near-parity that, if extrapolated over the next two to three years, suggests that AI tools will overtake search engines as the primary product discovery channel for the youngest adult consumer cohort in the United States. This is not a marginal shift; it represents a potential structural displacement of one of the most valuable commercial activities on the internet.
Millennials emerge as the most AI-engaged generation overall, with approximately 80% having used AI tools in the past year according to Numerator’s generational study — the highest rate of any demographic group. This matters commercially because Millennials are the primary household spending generation in the US right now, managing mortgages, children, cars, and household budgets. 75% of Millennials say AI improves their efficiency — the highest rate of any generation surveyed — which explains why they are more likely than any other age group to integrate AI into routine, high-frequency shopping tasks rather than treating it as a novelty for occasional use. The Baby Boomer figure of 26% adoption, combined with 18% expressing interest in trying AI shopping, means that even the most sceptical demographic is not immune to adoption — and that the current majority of non-adopters over 60 represent a significant and largely untapped commercial audience.
AI Shopper Trust, Barriers, and Autonomy in the US 2026
CONSUMER TRUST IN AI FOR SHOPPING — United States 2026
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Trust AI-generated shopping results (Adobe, 2026)
████████████████████████ 47%
Still want a human option available (SurveyMonkey, 2026)
████████████████████████████████████████████████ 89%
Willing to let AI narrow household supplies choices (Gartner, Jan 2026)
████████████████ 31%
Willing to let AI narrow personal electronics choices (Gartner)
███████████████ 28%
Concerned about scams when using AI shopping (first-timers)
████████████████████████████████████████ 78%
Do not trust chatbots with payment info (first-timers)
█████████████████████████████ 57%
Mode autonomous spend authorised to AI $0
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| Trust and Barrier Metric | Data | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Trust AI-generated shopping results | 47% (minority, but rising) | Adobe, 2026 |
| Still want a human customer service option | 89% | SurveyMonkey, 2026 |
| Willing to let AI narrow household supplies choices | 31% | Gartner survey (n=322), January 2026 |
| Willing to let AI narrow personal electronics choices | 28% | Gartner survey (n=322), January 2026 |
| Comfortable with AI automated grocery shopping | 48.8% | Capital One Shopping, 2026 |
| First-timers concerned about scams (AI shopping) | 78% | PartnerCentric Survey, December 2025 |
| First-timers who don’t trust chatbots with payment info | 57% | PartnerCentric Survey, December 2025 |
| Believe AI shopping recommendations are influenced by ads | 78% | PartnerCentric Survey, December 2025 |
| Mode autonomous spend consumers would authorise AI | $0 | Exploding Topics survey, 2026 |
| Consumers who would blame retailer for wrong AI purchase | 1 in 4 | Bluestone PIM Survey, 2026 |
| AI early adopters who encountered friction when using AI to shop | Significant share | Gartner (n=846), Nov–Dec 2025 |
| Consumers who say GenAI has made content quality worse | 49% | Gartner survey (n=307), March 2026 |
| Gen Z and Millennials: GenAI has made content worse | 57% | Gartner survey (n=307), March 2026 |
| Gartner’s stated consumer priority for AI shopping | Help find information, compare prices, narrow choices — not decide | Gartner, May 2026 |
Source: Gartner newsroom press releases — “Consumers Want AI Shopping Help, But Not AI Purchase Decisions” (May 2026); Gartner Marketing Symposium survey, March 2026; PartnerCentric Consumer Survey, December 2025 (n=1,000+); Bluestone PIM Consumer Survey, March 2026; Adobe 2026; SurveyMonkey 2026
The trust gap is the central tension in the AI shopping story in 2026, and the data captures it with unusual clarity. Consumers are using AI tools to research products in vast numbers — but when the moment of financial commitment arrives, the willingness to delegate control drops sharply. The Gartner finding that only 31% of consumers are willing to let AI narrow their household supply choices, and 28% for personal electronics, comes from a January 2026 survey of 322 US consumers and carries considerable weight precisely because Gartner’s methodology is conservative and its samples are verified. The fact that these figures represent the categories where consumers are most comfortable with AI narrowing choices — not the categories where they’re least comfortable — underscores how far autonomous shopping agents still have to travel to earn mainstream trust.
The Exploding Topics finding that the mode amount consumers would authorise AI to spend autonomously is $0 is perhaps the most brutally honest single data point in the entire AI shopping landscape. It does not mean no consumer is willing to authorise any autonomous spend; it means that the single most common response when asked how much AI can spend on their behalf without approval is zero. This sits in direct tension with the stated aspirations of the major AI commerce protocols — Google’s AP2, Stripe and OpenAI’s ACP, Shopify and Google’s UCP — all of which are designed to enable exactly the kind of autonomous transactional behaviour that most consumers currently say they do not want. The 78% of first-time AI shoppers who are concerned about scams, and the 57% who do not trust AI chatbots with their payment information, represent a structural barrier that will need to be resolved through demonstrated safety records, stronger consumer protections, and genuine transparency — not just better marketing.
AI Shopping Traffic, Conversions, and Retailer Adoption in US 2026
AI TRAFFIC QUALITY vs NON-AI TRAFFIC — US Retail Sites (Adobe Analytics 2026)
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Conversion rate improvement (AI vs non-AI, March 2026) +42%
Revenue per visit premium (AI vs non-AI, March 2026) +37%
Time spent on site (AI-referred vs average) +45%
Bounce rate improvement (AI-referred vs average) -33%
Pages viewed per AI-referred visit +13%
AI TRAFFIC GROWTH YoY (US retail sites, Adobe Analytics)
Q1 2025 (Jan–Mar) ████████████████████████████████████████ Baseline
July 2025 ████████████████████████████████████████████ +4,700% (since start)
Holiday 2025 (Nov–Dec) ████████████████████████████████████████████████ +693% YoY
Black Friday 2025 ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ +805% YoY
Q1 2026 (Mar alone) ████████████████████████████████████████▌ +393% YoY / +269% Mar
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
| Retail Traffic and Adoption Metric | Data |
|---|---|
| AI traffic to US retail sites — Q1 2026 YoY | +393% (Adobe Analytics, April 2026) |
| AI traffic growth — March 2026 alone YoY | +269% (Adobe Analytics) |
| AI traffic growth — Holiday 2025 season YoY | +693% (Adobe Analytics) |
| AI traffic growth — Black Friday 2025 YoY | +805% (Adobe Analytics) |
| AI traffic growth — July 2025 cumulative | +4,700% from January 2025 baseline |
| Conversion rate — AI-referred vs non-AI (March 2026) | 42% better |
| Revenue per visit — AI-referred vs non-AI (March 2026) | 37% higher |
| Time on site — AI-referred shoppers | 45% more |
| Bounce rate — AI-referred shoppers | 33% lower |
| Pages per visit — AI-referred shoppers | 13% more |
| Retailers offering AI tools during 2024 holiday season | 92% |
| Retailers using or assessing generative AI | 78–89% |
| Retailers who have fully scaled generative AI | Only 7–10% |
| Retailers running branded AI agents — holiday sales growth | 59% faster (6.2% vs 3.9% YoY) |
| AI-powered ecommerce software market — 2025 | $8.65 billion |
| Shopify — order growth from AI search interfaces | 15× growth |
| US retail website content visible to AI/LLMs (homepages) | 75% (25% is invisible to AI) |
| Individual product pages — AI-readable content | 66% (34% invisible to AI tools) |
Source: Adobe Analytics — Q1 2026 AI Traffic Report (April 2026) and Holiday 2025 Report (January 2026); Adobe Digital Insights, July 2025 and August 2025; Salesforce 2025 Holiday Shopping Report; Shopify Commerce Intelligence 2026
The traffic data from Adobe Analytics — which tracks over one trillion visits to US retail websites, more than any other research organisation — provides the most rigorous available picture of how AI is reshaping the flow of shoppers to retailers. The trajectory is steep and largely uninterrupted: from a 4,700% cumulative growth rate in AI-sourced traffic by July 2025 to a 693% year-over-year surge during the holiday season and a 393% year-over-year increase in Q1 2026, the direction is unambiguous. What is particularly significant is that this growth is not diluting quality — it is improving it. Traffic that in March 2025 converted 38% worse than non-AI sources had, by March 2026, flipped to converting 42% better. Adobe’s lead analyst Vivek Pandya described AI-referred traffic as “consistently” outperforming other sources in bounce rate — a statement backed by the finding that these visitors spend 45% more time on retail sites and view 13% more pages per visit.
The retailer adoption picture is characterised by a striking gap between intention and execution. 78 to 89% of retailers are using or assessing generative AI in some form — but only 7 to 10% have fully scaled it across their operations. This gap between pilot and production is the competitive fault line of 2026: the retailers who close it fastest are already seeing measurable advantages, as evidenced by the 59% faster holiday sales growth among those running branded AI shopping agents compared to those without. Adobe’s finding that 25% of US retail homepage content is currently invisible to AI models — and 34% of product page content is similarly unreadable by the algorithms now directing significant and growing volumes of high-quality traffic — is a direct operational warning. Retailers optimising their web presence for human browsers while ignoring AI readability are, in effect, closing the door on one of the fastest-growing and highest-converting traffic channels in US e-commerce.
Agentic Commerce and the Future of AI Shopping in the US 2026
AI SHOPPING GROWTH FORECASTS — United States (2026–2030)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
US AI retail technology market (2026)
████████████████████ $16.56 billion
US AI retail market (2030 projected)
████████████████████████████████████████████████ $50.73 billion
Agentic AI commerce — US e-commerce (Morgan Stanley bull case, 2030)
████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ $385 billion
McKinsey agentic commerce — US retail orchestration (2030)
████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ $1 trillion
B2B spending through AI agent exchanges (Gartner forecast, 2028)
████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ $15 trillion
% of online shoppers expected to use AI agents (2030)
████████████████████████████████████████████████ ~50%
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| Forecast / Market Projection | Data | Source |
|---|---|---|
| US AI retail technology market (2026) | $16.56 billion | Capital One Shopping, 2026 |
| US AI retail market (2030 projected) | $50.73 billion | Capital One Shopping, 2026 |
| Global AI retail market (2026) | $54.24 billion | Capital One Shopping, 2026 |
| Global AI retail market (2032 projected) | $287.1 billion | Capital One Shopping, 2026 |
| US agentic commerce (Morgan Stanley base case, 2030) | $190 billion | Morgan Stanley AlphaWise, Nov 2025 |
| US agentic commerce (Morgan Stanley bull case, 2030) | $385 billion (10–20% of US e-commerce) | Morgan Stanley AlphaWise, Nov 2025 |
| US agentic commerce (Bain & Company, 2030) | 15–25% of US e-commerce | Bain & Company, December 2025 |
| US agentic commerce — McKinsey orchestration forecast | Up to $1 trillion in US retail by 2030 | McKinsey, 2026 |
| B2B purchases via AI agent exchanges (Gartner, 2028) | $15 trillion globally | Gartner, November 2025 |
| Online shoppers expected to use AI agents by 2030 | ~50% | Morgan Stanley / industry estimates |
| % of online shoppers’ spending via AI agents (2030) | ~25% of their spend | Morgan Stanley / industry |
| Agentic AI commerce market — 2025 to 2030 CAGR | ~30.2% | Multiple analyst estimates |
| Retailers using advanced AI agents by 2028 | ~33% (up from <1% today) | Shopify forecast |
| Global generative AI ecommerce market (2026) | $1.11 billion (up from $962M in 2025) | Industry data |
| OpenAI’s ChatGPT “Instant Checkout” | Launched September 2025 | OpenAI |
Source: Morgan Stanley AlphaWise Research, November 2025; Bain & Company, December 2025; McKinsey — “Merchants Unleashed: How Agentic AI Transforms Retail Merchandising,” 2026; Gartner, November 2025; Capital One Shopping Research, 2026; Shopify Commerce Intelligence
The agentic commerce forecasts from Wall Street’s most credible institutions describe one of the largest discretionary spending reallocations in the history of US retail. Morgan Stanley’s projection that agentic shoppers could command between $190 billion and $385 billion in US e-commerce by 2030 — representing 10 to 20% of the total US online retail market — is supported by the convergence of multiple enabling conditions arriving simultaneously in 2026: maturing large language models capable of understanding consumer preferences in natural language, new interoperability protocols (Stripe/OpenAI’s ACP and Shopify/Google’s UCP) that allow AI agents to transact across merchants, and consumers who are already conditioned to receiving and acting on AI recommendations in other areas of their digital lives. McKinsey’s projection of up to $1 trillion in US retail revenue orchestrated by agentic AI by 2030 is the most expansive estimate on the table, but even the more conservative Morgan Stanley base case of $190 billion would represent a category larger than the entire US e-commerce market was in 2012.
The $15 trillion in B2B purchases that Gartner projects will flow through AI agent exchanges by 2028 — just two years away — is a figure that reframes the entire conversation. Most public discussion of AI shopping statistics focuses on consumer retail, but the B2B purchasing environment, where procurement cycles are complex, high-value, and relationship-dependent, is where agentic AI is expected to generate the largest absolute dollar volumes in the near term. The fact that 89% of B2B buyers have already adopted generative AI as a primary source of self-guided procurement research (Commercetools, 2026) means the groundwork for this transition is already laid. For US retailers, brands, and platforms, the practical implication is unambiguous: the AI shopping infrastructure being built right now is not the ceiling of what’s coming — it is the foundation.
Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.

