Vaccine Exemption in America 2026
Vaccine exemptions in the United States are legal provisions — set at the state level, not the federal level — that allow parents or guardians to enroll a child in school or daycare without meeting the vaccination requirements that would otherwise apply. Every state in the country permits exemptions for medical reasons, typically requiring documentation from a licensed physician confirming that a specific vaccine poses a genuine health risk to the child. Beyond medical exemptions, 47 states including Washington D.C. additionally allow non-medical exemptions based on religious beliefs, personal beliefs, or philosophical objections — a far lower bar that, in many states, amounts to nothing more than submitting a signed form or completing an online educational module. This structure has long been at the heart of an ongoing public health debate in the United States: how to balance parental rights and religious freedoms against the population-level immunity thresholds that protect entire communities — including children too young to be vaccinated, cancer patients, and immunocompromised individuals — from highly contagious, vaccine-preventable diseases.
As of 2026, that debate has reached an unprecedented level of political and legal intensity. The national kindergarten vaccine exemption rate climbed to a record 3.6% during the 2024–2025 school year, up from 2.5% in 2019–2020 — representing the highest rate ever recorded in CDC surveillance history. This has occurred against a backdrop of a sweeping federal vaccine policy upheaval led by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who replaced all 17 members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) in June 2025, oversaw a reduction in the federally recommended childhood vaccine schedule from 17 diseases to 11 in January 2026, and whose actions were subsequently challenged in federal court — resulting in a landmark ruling on March 16, 2026, by US District Court Judge Brian Murphy, who temporarily blocked the policy changes as likely violating administrative procedure. The consequences of these shifts are already being measured not in policy documents alone, but in lives: by March 26, 2026, the CDC confirmed 1,575 measles cases in the US in 2026 alone — on top of the 2,285 confirmed in the full year of 2025, the highest annual count since measles was declared eliminated in America in 2000. What follows is the most comprehensive, source-verified collection of vaccine exemption statistics in the US in 2026.
Key Facts About Vaccine Exemption in the US 2026
| Fact | Detail |
|---|---|
| National kindergarten vaccine exemption rate (2024–25) | 3.6% — all-time record high in CDC surveillance history |
| National exemption rate in 2019–20 (pre-pandemic baseline) | 2.5% — a 1.1 percentage point increase over 5 school years |
| Non-medical exemption rate (2024–25) | 3.4% — all-time record high |
| Medical exemption rate (2024–25) | 0.2% — stable and essentially unchanged since 2014 |
| Total kindergartners with an exemption (2024–25) | Approximately 138,000 children nationwide |
| States where exemptions increased (2024–25 vs. prior year) | 36 states and Washington D.C. saw exemptions rise |
| States with exemption rates exceeding 5% (2024–25) | 17 states — up from 9 states in the pre-pandemic 2019–20 school year |
| States with only medical exemptions allowed (as of 2026) | 4 states: California, Connecticut, Maine, and New York |
| States allowing religious and/or personal belief exemptions | 47 states including D.C. |
| MMR vaccination rate among US kindergartners (2024–25) | 92.5% — below the 95% herd immunity threshold for the fifth consecutive year |
| MMR vaccination rate in 2019–20 (pre-pandemic) | 95.2% — above the CDC/HHS target threshold |
| Kindergartners without completed MMR series (2024–25) | Approximately 286,000 children |
| States with MMR coverage below the 95% target (2024–25) | 39 out of 50 states (78%) — up from 28 states in 2019–20 |
| States with MMR coverage below 90% (2024–25) | 16 states — up from just 3 states in 2019–20 |
| Highest non-medical exemption rate by state (2024–25) | Idaho: 15.1% non-medical exemptions among kindergartners |
| Lowest non-medical exemption rate by state (2024–25) | Connecticut: 0.1% — repealed non-medical exemptions in 2021 |
| Confirmed measles cases in the US — full year 2025 | 2,285 cases — highest since measles was declared eliminated in 2000 |
| Confirmed measles cases in the US — 2026 (as of March 26) | 1,575 cases already in 2026 |
| Measles cases in unvaccinated or unknown-status individuals (2025) | ~93% of all 2025 cases |
| Parents who delay or skip some children’s vaccines (Jan 2025 KFF poll) | 17% of US parents — up from 10% in 2023 |
Source: CDC SchoolVaxView (July 31, 2025); KFF Health Tracking Poll (January 2025); CDC Measles Cases and Outbreaks (March 26, 2026); USAFacts / CDC data (September 2025); KFF State Health Policy (September 2025); MMWR 2024; International Vaccine Access Center, Johns Hopkins (August 2025)
The numbers above represent the sharpest and most sustained deterioration in childhood vaccination coverage in modern American public health history. The transition from a pre-pandemic 95.2% MMR coverage rate in the 2019–2020 school year to just 92.5% in 2024–2025 may appear numerically modest, but the epidemiological consequences of falling even a few percentage points below the 95% herd immunity threshold are profound. At 92.5%, the CDC’s own calculation confirms that approximately 286,000 kindergartners entered American classrooms in the 2024–2025 school year without the full protection of the MMR vaccine series — a number that represents an enormous reservoir of susceptibility in the most socially dense, communally shared environments that young children inhabit. The fact that the number of states with MMR coverage below 90% jumped from just 3 in 2019–2020 to 16 by 2024–2025 tells an even more alarming story: the decline isn’t an even statistical shift distributed across America, it’s a clustering of severe under-vaccination in specific states and communities.
What makes the 2026 vaccine exemption landscape so historically unprecedented is the convergence of multiple factors driving exemptions upward simultaneously. The long-term trend of rising non-medical exemptions — which climbed from 2.0% in 2014 to 3.4% in 2024 — was already a well-documented concern before the COVID-19 pandemic. But that trend has now intersected with the political normalization of vaccine skepticism, major disruptions to federal vaccine advisory infrastructure, and state-level legislative changes that have made non-medical exemptions easier to obtain in multiple states. The result is a country where 17 states now report exemption rates exceeding 5% — a threshold that makes reaching 95% MMR coverage mathematically impossible even if every non-exempt child were fully vaccinated on schedule.
State-by-State Vaccine Exemption Statistics in the US 2026
| State / Category | Non-Medical Exemption Rate (2024–25) | MMR Coverage (2024–25) |
|---|---|---|
| Idaho (highest non-medical exemption rate) | 15.1% | 78.5% (lowest in the US) |
| Utah | 10.0% | Below national average |
| Oregon | 9.7% | Below 90% |
| Alaska | 9.0% | 9.5% total exemption rate |
| Arizona | 9.0% | Below 90% |
| Connecticut (lowest non-medical exemption rate) | 0.1% | 98.2% (highest in the US) |
| California | Below 2.0% (medical exemptions only allowed) | Above 95% range |
| Maine | Medical exemptions only (0.8% medical — highest medical exemption rate) | Above national average |
| New York | Below 2.0% (no non-medical exemptions) | Above national average |
| States with exemptions exceeding 5% (2024–25) | 17 states | N/A |
| States with exemptions exceeding 5% (2019–20, pre-pandemic) | Only 9 states | N/A |
| Idaho non-medical exemption increase (2014–15 to 2024–25) | +8.9 percentage points — largest 10-year increase of any state | N/A |
| Utah non-medical exemption increase (2014–15 to 2024–25) | +5.9 percentage points | N/A |
| Nevada non-medical exemption increase (2014–15 to 2024–25) | +5.6 percentage points | N/A |
| Colorado non-medical exemption change (2014–15 to 2024–25) | -1.3 percentage points (decreased after requiring online education module) | N/A |
| Connecticut non-medical exemption change (same period) | -1.5 percentage points (eliminated non-medical exemptions in 2021) | N/A |
| Vermont non-medical exemption change (same period) | -2.2 percentage points (eliminated philosophical exemptions in 2015) | N/A |
| Georgia MMR coverage (2023–24) | Exemption rates rising; non-medical exemptions accessible | 88.4% — down from 93.1% in 2019–20 |
| Florida MMR coverage (2023–24) | Some areas reporting non-medical exemption rates up to 50% (local level) | 88.1% — down from 93.5% in 2019–20 |
| West Virginia | Executive order allowing religious/personal belief exemptions signed January 2025; litigation ongoing | Previously highest vaccination rates / lowest exemption rates nationally |
Source: CDC SchoolVaxView (July 31, 2025); USAFacts / CDC data analysis (September 2025); KFF State Health Policy (September 2025); International Vaccine Access Center, Johns Hopkins (August 2025); KFF Health News / Governing.com (January 2025)
The state-by-state vaccine exemption data reveals a picture that is as geographically stark as it is policy-driven. The contrast between Idaho — with a 15.1% non-medical exemption rate and an MMR coverage rate of just 78.5%, the lowest in the country — and Connecticut — where non-medical exemptions sit at an almost negligible 0.1% and MMR coverage reaches 98.2% — is not a random difference in community values. It is the direct and measurable consequence of different state policies. Connecticut eliminated non-medical exemptions in 2021; Idaho not only maintains both religious and philosophical exemptions but has actively transferred control of required vaccines to its state legislature and restricted medical mandates, further weakening enforcement of what requirements remain. Vermont and Colorado provide equally instructive natural experiments: both states implemented procedural barriers to non-medical exemptions and recorded the largest decade-over-decade decreases in exemption rates in the country.
The trajectories of Georgia and Florida are particularly sobering given their large populations. Georgia’s MMR coverage fell from 93.1% in 2019–20 to 88.4% in 2023–24, and Florida’s dropped from 93.5% to 88.1% over the same period — some Florida counties reporting local non-medical exemption rates as high as 50% at the school or district level, driven largely by the state’s broad and easily accessible religious exemption process. And the January 2025 executive order signed by West Virginia’s governor — allowing religious and personal belief exemptions for the first time in a state that previously maintained one of the strictest medical-only exemption policies in the nation and, correspondingly, one of the highest vaccination rates — is a development that public health experts have warned will produce measurable coverage declines in the 2025–2026 and 2026–2027 school year data, when those impacts become visible in CDC surveillance reports.
Non-Medical vs. Medical Vaccine Exemption Statistics in the US 2026
| Exemption Type / Trend | Data Point |
|---|---|
| Non-medical exemption rate (2024–25) | 3.4% — all-time record high |
| Non-medical exemption rate (2019–20 pre-pandemic) | 2.2% |
| Non-medical exemption rate (2014–15) | 2.0% |
| Medical exemption rate (2024–25) | 0.2% — essentially unchanged since 2014 |
| Medical exemption rate range across all states | Below 1.0% in every reporting state |
| State with highest medical exemption rate (2024–25) | Maine: 0.8% |
| States also reporting high medical exemptions (2024–25) | Maryland, Nebraska, Nevada, and Wisconsin (all 0.5%) |
| Non-medical exemptions as share of all exemptions | More than 93% of all reported exemptions are non-medical |
| Non-medical exemptions — growth from 2020 to 2024 | Rose each year from 2020 through 2024 after a COVID-era dip |
| 2020 COVID-era dip in exemptions | CDC attributes the temporary 2020 dip to expanded grace periods and provisional enrollment; not genuine vaccination catch-up |
| States that eliminated non-medical exemptions | California, Connecticut, Maine, New York (+ previously West Virginia) |
| States with no non-medical exemption barriers whatsoever | Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Oregon, Arizona — all with exemption rates exceeding 9% |
| Parents who disagree that school vaccination requirements are important (2024 CDC survey) | 8.3% of US parents — roughly 1 in 12 |
| Parental concern about autism and MMR vaccine (false claim) | Most adults, including parents, fall in the “malleable middle” on this false claim |
| Parents who believe or are open to the MMR-autism myth | ~4 times more likely to delay or skip vaccines than those who know the claim is false |
Source: CDC SchoolVaxView (July 31, 2025); USAFacts / CDC (September 2025); KFF Health Tracking Poll (January 2025); International Vaccine Access Center, Johns Hopkins (August 2025); CDC parental attitudes survey (2024)
The medical vs. non-medical exemption breakdown is one of the most important — and most revealing — distinctions in the entire vaccine exemption data landscape. Medical exemptions have remained at a rock-steady 0.2% since 2014, with virtually no year-over-year variation, and no state reporting a medical exemption rate above 0.8%. This consistency makes scientific sense: the proportion of children who have genuine medical contraindications to standard childhood vaccines — such as severe allergies to vaccine components, certain immunodeficiency conditions, or a history of severe adverse reactions — is small and biologically stable. It does not fluctuate based on political trends, media coverage, or administrative changes at the federal level. Non-medical exemptions are an entirely different story. Their growth from 2.0% in 2014–15 to 3.4% in 2024–25 is entirely a product of social, cultural, and policy factors — and the fact that they now account for more than 93% of all vaccine exemptions in the United States makes clear that the exemption crisis is not a medical phenomenon. It is a policy and trust phenomenon.
The data on parental attitudes deepens this picture considerably. The 2024 CDC parental survey finding that 8.3% of US parents — roughly 1 in 12 — actively disagree that school vaccination requirements are important or necessary puts a meaningful floor under how far exemption rates could rise if current trends continue unchecked. And the KFF January 2025 poll finding that parents who believe or remain open to the false claim that MMR vaccines cause autism are four times more likely to delay or skip vaccines for their children identifies the precise mechanism through which vaccine misinformation converts into real-world vaccination gaps. The persistence of this debunked claim — first published and subsequently fully retracted and discredited after its author lost his medical license — continues to serve as a primary driver of non-medical exemptions in states where obtaining one requires nothing more than a parent’s signature.
Vaccine Exemption & Measles Outbreak Consequences in the US 2026
| Measles Outbreak Category | Data Point |
|---|---|
| Confirmed measles cases — full year 2025 | 2,285 cases in 45 jurisdictions |
| Confirmed measles cases — 2026 (as of March 26, 2026) | 1,575 cases in 32 jurisdictions |
| Combined confirmed cases (Jan 2025 – March 12, 2026) | 3,637 confirmed cases in 46 states and jurisdictions |
| Measles cases in 2024 (full year, for comparison) | 285 cases — 2025 total represents an ~8-fold increase |
| Largest annual case count before 2025 | 1,274 cases in 2019 |
| Measles outbreaks in 2025 | 48 outbreaks — vs. 16 in 2024 |
| Measles cases that were outbreak-associated in 2025 | 90% (2,063 of 2,285 cases) |
| New outbreaks reported in 2026 (as of March 26) | 16 new outbreaks |
| Cases in unvaccinated or unknown-status individuals (2025) | ~92–93% of all 2025 cases |
| Deaths associated with the outbreak (2025–2026) | 4 confirmed deaths — 2 children in Texas, 1 adult in New Mexico, 1 child in Los Angeles (measles-related complication) |
| First US measles deaths since 2015 | Occurred in February 2025 — an unvaccinated school-aged child in Texas |
| Hospitalization rate among 2025 measles cases | ~11–13% of confirmed cases required hospitalization |
| Hospitalization rate for children under 5 with measles | 23% — nearly 1 in 4 infected young children hospitalized |
| Measles cases among children under 5 (as of April 17, 2025) | 31% of all US measles cases — including many infants too young to be vaccinated |
| Measles cases among ages 5–19 (as of April 17, 2025) | 38% of all US measles cases |
| Risk of catching measles if unvaccinated and exposed | ~90% probability |
| MMR vaccine effectiveness (2 doses) | 97% effective at preventing measles |
| MMR vaccine effectiveness (1 dose) | 93% effective at preventing measles |
| US measles elimination status (2026) | At risk of being lost — under formal CDC determination process |
Source: CDC Measles Cases and Outbreaks page (March 26, 2026); CDC MMWR (April 24, 2025); WHO Disease Outbreak News (2025); Public Health Communications Collaborative (March 2026); PMC / NIH (2025); Los Angeles County Department of Public Health
The 2025–2026 US measles outbreak is the most direct and devastating consequence of the vaccine exemption trend documented in this article. The CDC’s own data, published March 26, 2026, confirms that from January 2025 through March 2026, a combined 3,637 confirmed measles cases were recorded across 46 states and jurisdictions — a scale of sustained domestic transmission that public health experts say puts the United States at genuine risk of losing its measles elimination status, first achieved in 2000. That status — which requires that no measles transmission chain continues for more than 12 months — has never previously been threatened since its declaration. The four confirmed deaths, including the first measles-related deaths of American children in a decade, are not statistical abstractions: the two children who died in Texas were both unvaccinated, had no underlying health conditions, and lived in counties where MMR coverage for kindergartners had been below 90% for multiple consecutive years.
The epidemiological pattern of the 2025–2026 outbreak is a textbook illustration of what happens when exemption rates cross critical thresholds. 92–93% of all 2025 cases occurred in individuals who were unvaccinated or whose vaccination status was unknown. The 48 outbreaks recorded in 2025 — more than triple the 16 outbreaks in 2024 — confirm that measles was not being brought in from abroad and contained; it was spreading domestically through clusters of susceptible individuals concentrated in communities with high exemption rates. Several West Texas counties at the epicenter of the largest outbreak had kindergarten MMR coverage rates of 70.5% to 88.1% — far below the 95% threshold — for multiple consecutive years before the 2025 outbreak ignited. The data makes the causal chain impossible to dispute: high exemption rates produced low coverage, low coverage created susceptible clusters, and susceptible clusters produced the largest US measles outbreak in more than three decades.
Public Trust, Vaccine Hesitancy & Exemption Opinion Statistics in the US 2026
| Public Opinion / Trust Category | Data Point |
|---|---|
| US adults who trust the CDC “a great deal” or “fair amount” (Feb 2026) | 47% — the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic began |
| Trust in CDC among Democrats (Feb 2026) | 55% — down 9 percentage points since September 2025 |
| Trust in CDC among Democrats (September 2023) | 88% — a 33 percentage point collapse in roughly 2 years |
| Trust in CDC among Republicans (Jan 2025) | 39% — down from 48% in June 2023 |
| Government health agencies: public confidence (2025 KFF) | Fewer than half (45–46%) have “some” or “a lot” of confidence in agencies to ensure vaccine safety or respond to outbreaks |
| US adults who support public school vaccine requirements | 70% support requirements (allowing health and religious exceptions) — down from 82% in 2019 |
| Republicans supporting school vaccine requirements | 57% — down from 79% in 2019 |
| Democrats supporting school vaccine requirements | 85% — essentially unchanged from 2019 |
| Parents currently keeping children up to date on vaccines (Jan 2025) | 82% — down from approximately 90% consistently in KFF polls from 2021–2023 |
| Parents who delay or skip some children’s vaccines (Jan 2025) | 17% — up from 10% in 2023, a 7 percentage point increase |
| Republican/Republican-leaning parents skipping or delaying vaccines (Jan 2025) | 26% — up from 13% in 2023, nearly doubled in 2 years |
| US adults who believe MMR vaccine causes autism (false claim) | Most adults are in the “malleable middle” — neither confidently rejecting nor fully accepting the claim |
| MMR vaccine benefits vs. risks — US adults (Pew Research) | 88% say overall benefits of childhood MMR vaccines outweigh the risks |
| Trust in personal doctor or child’s pediatrician for vaccine info | 83% of adults and 81% of parents trust their doctor “a fair amount” or more |
| Trust in CDC for vaccine information — most trusted source? | Individual doctors remain the #1 most trusted source — government agencies rank lower and increasingly partisan |
| Americans without college degree who are vaccine hesitant | 31% — more than twice the rate of college graduates at 12% |
Source: KFF Health Tracking Poll (January 2025 and February 2026); Pew Research Center (2023, updated 2025); Gallup; KFF State Health Policy (September 2025)
The public trust data surrounding vaccines and vaccine exemptions in 2026 paints a picture of institutional erosion that goes well beyond any single political moment. The finding that fewer than half of all US adults — just 47% — now trust the CDC to provide reliable information about vaccines represents a collapse in confidence that was virtually unthinkable just a decade ago, and its speed is remarkable: among Democrats alone, trust in the CDC for vaccine information has plummeted from 88% in September 2023 to just 55% in February 2026 — a 33 percentage point drop in roughly 29 months, driven by the disorienting spectacle of a federal health apparatus being actively restructured by an appointee with a documented history of vaccine misinformation. The data from the February 2026 KFF poll reflects precisely the period following the January 2026 CDC childhood vaccine schedule reduction from 17 to 11 diseases — a unilateral policy change that the American Medical Association described as arrived at without “a robust, evidence-based process” and that was subsequently blocked by a federal judge in March 2026.
The partisan dimension of vaccine hesitancy is striking but should not obscure the broader reality that vaccine concern is not exclusively a Republican phenomenon. While Republican-leaning parents are nearly twice as likely as Democratic-leaning parents to delay or skip children’s vaccines, the fact that 17% of all US parents now report delaying or skipping shots — up from 10% just two years earlier — means a meaningful and growing share of the non-Republican parent population is also disengaging from the recommended childhood vaccination schedule. The Pew Research finding that 88% of Americans still say the overall benefits of MMR vaccines outweigh the risks — a figure that has barely changed since before the pandemic — suggests that the crisis is less about firm anti-vaccine conviction and more about an erosion of institutional trust and clarity of public messaging that leaves genuinely persuadable parents susceptible to doubt. The #1 trusted source for vaccine information remains the individual doctor or pediatrician — a finding that both highlights the irreplaceable role of the clinical relationship and points to where public health communication efforts most urgently need to be concentrated.
Federal Vaccine Policy Changes & Exemption Law Statistics in the US 2026
| Policy / Legislative Category | Data Point |
|---|---|
| Federal childhood vaccine schedule diseases (pre-2026) | 17 diseases routinely recommended |
| Federal childhood vaccine schedule diseases (January 2026) | Reduced to 11 diseases by CDC acting director under HHS order |
| Vaccines removed from universal recommendation (Jan 2026) | 6 vaccines removed from universal routine recommendation, including hepatitis A, hepatitis B for newborns, RSV for infants, rotavirus, and influenza (broadly) |
| ACIP members fired by RFK Jr. (June 2025) | All 17 sitting members of ACIP replaced simultaneously |
| RFK Jr. replacement ACIP appointees (June 2025) | 13 new appointees — court found only 6 appeared to have meaningful vaccine expertise |
| Federal court ruling on vaccine schedule changes (March 16, 2026) | US District Court Judge Brian Murphy temporarily blocked the vaccine schedule cuts and invalidated ACIP votes by Kennedy’s appointees |
| Ruling basis | HHS acted in an “arbitrary and capricious” manner; changes “disregarded” long-established scientific process |
| HHS response to the ruling (March 2026) | Announced intent to appeal the decision |
| Hepatitis B newborn recommendation | ACIP under Kennedy voted to no longer recommend hep B vaccine for all newborns — this vote was stayed by the March 2026 ruling |
| West Virginia executive order (January 2025) | Governor signed executive order allowing religious and personal belief exemptions — previously a medical-only state |
| West Virginia executive order status | Litigation ongoing as of early 2026 |
| Colorado law allowing non-ACIP vaccine guidance | Passed law allowing consideration of recommendations from AAP and other bodies, not only ACIP |
| States proposing to eliminate non-medical exemptions (2025) | Massachusetts and Hawaii introduced legislation — not yet enacted |
| Idaho vaccine mandate law change (2025) | Transferred control of required vaccines to the state legislature, restricting medical mandates |
| AAP’s independent vaccine schedule publication (2025–26) | AAP published its own independent childhood vaccine schedule, declaring the ACIP process “no longer credible” under Kennedy appointees |
| Mississippi court ruling (2023) | Federal court paved the way for religious exemptions in Mississippi school vaccination policy — exemptions jumped immediately |
Source: AJMC (January 2026, March 2026); STAT News (January 2026); Fierce Pharma (January 2026); US District Court, District of Massachusetts, Judge Brian Murphy ruling (March 16, 2026); NPR (March 2026); KFF State Health Policy (September 2025); CDC; NBC News; Axios
The federal vaccine policy upheaval of 2025–2026 constitutes the most significant disruption to the American childhood immunization system since the modern vaccine schedule was established. The January 2026 reduction of the federally recommended childhood vaccine schedule from 17 to 11 diseases — carried out by a CDC acting director without a formal ACIP vote, at the direction of HHS Secretary Kennedy — was described by the American Medical Association as putting children “at unnecessary risk of preventable disease.” The court’s finding that the action was likely “arbitrary and capricious” and that Kennedy’s 13 replacement ACIP appointees included only 6 individuals with meaningful vaccine expertise — in a body whose own charter requires vaccine expertise — underscores the procedural as well as substantive concerns that led six major medical organizations, including the American Academy of Pediatrics, to mount the legal challenge that produced the March 16, 2026 ruling.
At the state level, the legislative shifts represent a parallel and compounding force. West Virginia’s January 2025 executive order adding religious and personal belief exemptions in what had been the strictest vaccine-requirement state in the country is the most symbolically significant single state change, because West Virginia’s pre-2025 data consistently showed that strict medical-only exemption policies produced among the highest vaccination rates and lowest exemption rates nationally. That natural experiment — replicated in California, Connecticut, Maine, and New York — provides the clearest possible policy evidence that exemption law design directly determines vaccination coverage outcomes. The American Academy of Pediatrics’ decision to publish its own independent childhood vaccine schedule — essentially declaring the federal ACIP process no longer scientifically credible under its current composition — is without precedent in the organization’s history, and reflects the depth of the institutional rupture that has defined the vaccine exemption landscape in America in 2026.
COVID-19 Vaccine Exemption and Adult Vaccination Statistics in the US 2026
| COVID-19 / Adult Vaccine Category | Data Point |
|---|---|
| Adults who received updated 2024–25 COVID-19 vaccine | ~28% of US adults |
| Medicare FFS beneficiaries 65+ vaccinated with updated 2024–25 COVID-19 vaccine | 27.8% — reflecting significant hesitancy even in the highest-risk age group |
| CDC COVID-19 vaccine recommendation for healthy children — RFK Jr. action | Removed in May 2025 — without a formal ACIP vote |
| CDC COVID-19 vaccine recommendation for pregnant women — RFK Jr. action | Removed in May 2025 — without a formal ACIP vote |
| COVID-19 vaccine access restrictions (under 65) | Made harder to access under Kennedy’s HHS policies |
| mRNA vaccine research funding | Kennedy took a harder line on mRNA technology — restrictions and reduced research funding |
| Court ruling on COVID-19 vaccine rollbacks | Judge Murphy declined to block Kennedy’s earlier COVID-19 vaccine rollback order for children and pregnant women at this stage |
| Adults planning NOT to get a COVID-19 vaccine (July 2025) | Most adults do not expect to get a COVID-19 vaccine in the fall, per KFF July 2025 poll |
| Parents confused about whether COVID-19 vaccine is recommended for healthy children | Many parents report confusion — characterized as “confused and uncertain” by KFF researchers |
| Influenza vaccination rates since 2020 | Flu vaccination rates have declined since 2020 despite elevated flu-related pediatric mortality |
| Flu-related pediatric deaths in 2024–25 flu season (as of June 21, 2025) | 253 influenza-related pediatric deaths — 42.7% in children with no high-risk medical condition |
| HHS action on thimerosal in flu vaccines | RFK Jr. signed recommendation to remove thimerosal from all US influenza vaccines |
Source: Pew Research Center; KFF Health Tracking Poll (July–August 2025); AJMC (2025–2026); CDC / CMS; Contemporary Pediatrics (July–August 2025); NBC News; US District Court ruling (March 2026)
The COVID-19 vaccine exemption and adult vaccination picture in 2026 reveals that the hesitancy documented in childhood vaccination data extends robustly into adult immunization behavior as well. The finding that only ~28% of US adults received the updated 2024–25 COVID-19 vaccine — and that even among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 and older, a group at extremely high risk of severe COVID outcomes, the uptake rate was just 27.8% — indicates a near-universal disengagement from COVID-19 vaccination that goes well beyond political identity. The removal of the COVID-19 vaccine recommendation for healthy children and pregnant women in May 2025 — carried out by Kennedy without a formal ACIP vote and challenged in court by six leading medical organizations — created precisely the kind of confusion that the July–August 2025 KFF poll captured, with many parents reporting they were confused and uncertain about whether the COVID-19 vaccine was even recommended for their healthy children anymore.
The influenza vaccination data adds another layer of concern. With 253 influenza-related pediatric deaths reported by June 21, 2025 — and 42.7% of those deaths occurring in children with no high-risk medical condition — the backdrop of declining flu vaccination rates since 2020 is not an abstract policy concern. The HHS decision to remove thimerosal from all influenza vaccines — signed by Kennedy despite decades of safety evidence showing the mercury-based preservative at vaccine doses posed no health risk — reflects how deeply anti-vaccine ideology has embedded itself in formal federal health policy in 2026. Public health experts have warned that each of these individual policy changes, communication disruptions, and institutional trust collapses is individually harmful; taken together in the same two-year period, they represent a compounding force with consequences for vaccination rates, exemption rates, and preventable disease outcomes that will be measured in CDC surveillance data for years to come.
Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.

