US Provisional Ballot Statistics 2026 show 36,788 provisional ballots cast in North Carolina and about 102,148 still outstanding in Ohio, while no national total exists yet. The 2024 benchmark was 1,736,209 provisional ballots, with 73.8% counted and 25.1% rejected.
US Provisional Ballot 2026 – Introduction
US Provisional Ballot Statistics 2026 are still incomplete. A provisional ballot lets a voter cast a ballot when election officials cannot confirm eligibility at the polls. Officials then check each one and count it fully, count it partly, or reject it. North Carolina published county totals on November 4, and Ohio and Arizona counties posted outstanding counts. The federal Election Assistance Commission will not publish national 2026 totals until mid-to-late 2027.
This report uses the figures released so far and compares them with federal benchmarks for 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024. Sources include the North Carolina State Board of Elections, Maricopa County, the Election Assistance Commission, and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab. All 2026 numbers are unofficial. Counts change as county boards review ballots during canvass.
Interesting Facts: US Provisional Ballot Statistics 2026
Provisional Ballots Reported in 2026 (each █ = 5000)
Ohio, outstanding ████████████████████ 102148
North Carolina, cast ███████ 36788
Maricopa County, awaiting research █ 6300
| Interesting Fact | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| North Carolina provisional ballots cast | 36,788 |
| North Carolina Election Day provisional ballots | 30,745 (83.6%) |
| Ohio provisional ballots outstanding | About 102,148 |
| Maricopa County estimate awaiting research | About 6,300 |
| Largest North Carolina county | 3,337 (Wake County) |
| North Carolina photo ID cure deadline | Noon, November 10 |
| North Carolina state canvass | November 24 |
| National 2026 totals expected | Mid-to-late 2027 |
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections (NCSBE); Maricopa County Elections Department; Ohio Capital Journal; U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC).
North Carolina reported 36,788 provisional ballots cast, according to the state board’s county-by-county PDF. Of those, 30,745 came on Election Day and 6,043 during early voting. Ohio had about 102,148 provisional ballots left to review, and Maricopa County estimated about 6,300. These are ballots cast or awaiting review, not ballots that will count.
Each state sets its own rules for counting provisional ballots. North Carolina lets voters without photo ID return by noon on November 10 or sign an exception form. Boards must count eligible ballots before canvass. The state board will hold a county canvass on November 13 and a state canvass on November 24. Federal totals will follow in the EAC’s 2026 survey.
Provisional Ballots Cast by County 2026: North Carolina’s Top 10 Counties
Provisional Ballots Cast by County (each █ = 200)
Wake ████████████████▌ 3337
Mecklenburg ███████████████▌ 3142
Durham ██████████▌ 2176
Forsyth █████████▌ 1943
Guilford ████████ 1606
Cumberland █████▌ 1153
Pitt █████▌ 1116
New Hanover █████ 1036
Cabarrus █████ 1020
Johnston ████▌ 990
| County | Provisional Ballots Cast | Share of State Total |
|---|---|---|
| Wake | 3,337 | 9.1% |
| Mecklenburg | 3,142 | 8.5% |
| Durham | 2,176 | 5.9% |
| Forsyth | 1,943 | 5.3% |
| Guilford | 1,606 | 4.4% |
| Cumberland | 1,153 | 3.1% |
| Pitt | 1,116 | 3.0% |
| New Hanover | 1,036 | 2.8% |
| Cabarrus | 1,020 | 2.8% |
| Johnston | 990 | 2.7% |
| Statewide | 36,788 | 100% |
Source: NCSBE, Number of Provisional Ballots Cast by County and Voting Method for the November 3, 2026 General Election (November 5, 2026).
Wake County reported 3,337 provisional ballots, the most of any county, and Mecklenburg reported 3,142. Durham reported 2,176, Forsyth 1,943, and Guilford 1,606. The top five hold about 33.2% of the 36,788 statewide total, and the top ten hold about 47.6%. North Carolina’s total equals about 5% of the 702,042 provisional ballots cast nationwide in the 2022 midterm.
County totals show ballots cast, not ballots counted, and they do not show how voters voted. Counties with small totals can still matter in close races, as in North Carolina’s Senate District 24, where Hoke, Robeson, and Scotland counties reviewed hundreds of provisional ballots. All these figures still remain unofficial.
Provisional Ballots by Voting Method 2026: Election Day vs Early Voting in North Carolina
North Carolina Provisional Ballots by Voting Method (each █ = 1000)
Election Day precinct ██████████████████████████████▌ 30745
Early voting ██████ 6043
Civilian mail 0
Military and overseas 0
| Voting Method | Provisional Ballots | Share of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Election Day precinct | 30,745 | 83.6% |
| Early voting | 6,043 | 16.4% |
| Civilian mail-in | 0 | 0.0% |
| Military and overseas | 0 | 0.0% |
| Total | 36,788 | 100% |
Source: NCSBE, provisional ballots by county and voting method, November 5, 2026. Shares calculated by this report.
Election Day voters cast 30,745 provisional ballots, 83.6% of the total. Early voters cast 6,043, or 16.4%. The table reports no civilian mail-in or military and overseas provisional ballots. Registration Repair voters also cast provisional ballots when voting in person.
The split matters for 2026 comparisons. Mail ballots with problems follow a separate cure process, not a provisional one. Counties will decide each of the 36,788 ballots by the November 13 canvass.
Provisional Ballots by State 2026: Reported and Outstanding Counts
Provisional Ballots Reported by State or County (each █ = 5000)
Ohio, outstanding ████████████████████ 102148
North Carolina, cast ███████ 36788
Maricopa County, awaiting research █ 6300
| State or County | 2026 Figure | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio | About 102,148 | Provisional ballots outstanding statewide |
| North Carolina | 36,788 | Provisional ballots cast; review ongoing |
| Maricopa County, Arizona | About 6,300 | Estimated provisional ballots needing research |
| All other states | Not published | Reported through county canvass or later |
Source: Ohio Capital Journal; NCSBE; Maricopa County Elections Department (November 4, 2026).
Ohio has the largest reported backlog at about 102,148 provisional ballots, roughly 15% of the 702,042 cast nationwide in the 2022 midterm. Ohio recorded 104,848 provisional voters in 2024, so the 2026 backlog is close to that level. North Carolina follows with 36,788. Maricopa County, Arizona’s largest county, estimated about 6,300 provisional ballots needing research.
Most states have not released totals. Five states do not use provisional ballots: Idaho, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Dakota, and Vermont, according to the MIT Election Data and Science Lab.
State Provisional Ballot Rankings: 2024 Benchmark for 2026
Provisional Voters by State, 2024 (each █ = 5000)
Ohio ████████████████████▌ 104848
Pennsylvania █████████████▌ 69506
Nevada █████▌ 28242
Arizona ███ 15699
Georgia ▌ 3718
| State | Provisional Voters, 2024 | 2026 Status |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio | 104,848 | About 102,148 outstanding |
| Pennsylvania | 69,506 | Not yet published |
| Nevada | 28,242 | Not yet published |
| Arizona | 15,699 | Maricopa County: about 6,300 awaiting research |
| Georgia | 3,718 | Not yet published |
| Michigan | 10 | Not yet published |
| Wisconsin | 57 | Not yet published |
Source: Ballotpedia, Provisional Ballot Laws by State, using 2024 EAC and state data.
These seven battleground states show the range. Ohio led at 104,848 provisional voters, followed by Pennsylvania at 69,506 and Nevada at 28,242. Arizona recorded 15,699, and Georgia recorded 3,718. Michigan recorded only 10 and Wisconsin only 57, likely because both states offer same-day registration and use provisional ballots rarely.
Provisional use depends on state law more than voter behavior. Registration, photo ID, and same-day registration rules all change the count, so a high count signals neither fraud nor failure.
Accepted vs Rejected Provisional Ballots 2026: What Counties Have Decided So Far
Hoke County Provisional Ballots Decided, Senate District 24 (each █ = 5)
Counted ███████████▌ 59
Rejected █████████████████████ 105
| Measure | Hoke County, NC |
|---|---|
| Provisional ballots cast | More than 160 |
| Counted | 59 |
| Rejected | 105 |
| Counted share of decided | 36.0% |
| Common rejection reasons | No photo ID and no acceptable excuse |
| Pending in nearby counties | About 530 in Robeson; about 130 in Scotland |
| 2022 midterm, national benchmark | 78.6% counted; 21.3% rejected |
Source: WRAL, November 2026; NCSBE.
Hoke County is the clearest 2026 example of acceptance rates so far. County officials counted 59 provisional ballots and rejected 105, a 36.0% acceptance rate among decided ballots. Voters who lacked photo ID and did not offer an acceptable reason accounted for many rejections. This is one county and one race, so it does not predict state totals.
Robeson County had about 530 provisional ballots left to review and Scotland County about 130. North Carolina boards must finish by November 10. The state board said eligible ballots from voters who completed an ID exception form count unless a board unanimously finds the form false. No statewide accepted or rejected figure is available yet.
Reasons Provisional Ballots Are Rejected: Registration, Precinct and ID Problems
Share of Rejected Provisional Ballots by Reason (each █ = 2)
Not registered, 2020 (EAC) ███████████████████████████ 54.8%
Not registered, 2024 (MIT) █████████████████████████ 50%
Not registered, 2006-2016 ██████████████████████ 44%
Wrong jurisdiction █████ 10.6%
Wrong precinct ███▌ 7.7%
| Reason | Share of Rejections | Period and Source |
|---|---|---|
| Voter not registered in the state | About 50% | 2024, MIT Election Lab |
| Voter not registered in the state | 54.8% | 2020, EAC |
| Voter not registered in the state | About 44% | 2006-2016, EAC |
| Wrong jurisdiction | 10.6% | 2006-2016, EAC |
| Wrong precinct | 7.7% | 2006-2016, EAC |
| Voted through another mode | 5% | 2020, EAC |
| Reasons cast: not on voter roll | About 40% of ballots cast | 2024, EAC |
| Reasons cast in North Carolina | Missing from rolls, no photo ID, Registration Repair | 2026, NCSBE |
| Rejections in Hoke County | No photo ID and no acceptable excuse | 2026, WRAL |
Source: U.S. Election Assistance Commission EAVS reports (2006-2016, 2020, 2024); MIT Election Data and Science Lab; Washington Voter Research Project; NCSBE; WRAL.
The leading cause of rejection is that the voter was not registered. The MIT Election Lab puts it at about 50% of 2024 rejections, down from 51% in 2020. The EAC’s 2020 report put it at 54.8%, and its earlier review of 2006 to 2016 put it at about 44%. Wrong jurisdiction and wrong precinct follow.
Why voters cast provisional ballots differs from why ballots fail. In 2024, about 40% of provisional ballots were cast because the voter did not appear on the roll. Other reasons include missing ID and eligibility challenges. Most states reject wrong-precinct ballots in full, though some count the contests the voter was eligible for.
Voter Registration and ID Problems 2026: North Carolina’s Photo ID and Registration Repair Rules
North Carolina Dates After Election Day (each █ = 1)
Photo ID cure deadline ███████ day 7
County canvass ██████████ day 10
State canvass █████████████████████ day 21
| Rule or Date | Detail |
|---|---|
| Photo ID cure deadline | Noon, November 10 (fifth business day) |
| Photo ID Exception Form | Counted unless the county board unanimously finds it false |
| Registration Repair | Voters cast provisional ballots in person to update records |
| County canvass | November 13, 11 a.m. |
| State canvass | November 24, 11 a.m. |
| Ohio Question 1 (voter ID) | Passed with 65.3% |
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections press releases (November 4, 2026); NBC News Ohio ballot measure results.
North Carolina voters cast provisional ballots for three main reasons. Their name was missing from the rolls, they lacked acceptable photo ID, or they were part of the state’s Registration Repair project. Voters who lacked ID could return to their county office by noon on November 10 or complete an exception form at the polls.
Voter ID rules are tightening elsewhere. Ohio’s Question 1, which requires voter ID, passed with 65.3%, and Nevada’s photo ID amendment also passed. These changes may raise provisional ballot use in future elections, because voters without ID typically vote provisionally. Federal data will show the effect after the 2026 survey.
Historical Provisional Ballot Statistics: 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024 Compared
Provisional Ballots Cast Nationally (each █ = 100000)
2018 ██████████████████▌ 1852476
2020 █████████████████ 1712857
2022 ███████ 702042
2024 █████████████████ 1736209
| Year | Provisional Ballots Cast | Counted | Rejected |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1,852,476 | Not reported here | Not reported here |
| 2020 | 1,712,857 | 78.3% | 21.3% |
| 2022 | 702,042 | 78.6% | 21.3% |
| 2024 | 1,736,209 | 73.8% (1,281,399) | 25.1% (436,258) |
| 2026 | Not yet published | Not yet published | Not yet published |
Source: U.S. Election Assistance Commission, Election Administration and Voting Survey (2018, 2020, 2022, 2024); MIT Election Data and Science Lab.
The count fell from 1,852,476 in 2018 to 702,042 in 2022, then jumped to 1,736,209 in 2024. The 2024 total equaled 0.87% of votes counted, according to the MIT Election Lab. Rejected ballots equaled 0.29% of votes. The 2026 data so far covers only North Carolina, Ohio, and Maricopa County. In 2022, provisional ballots made up 0.5% of voters, compared with 1.3% in 2018.
The acceptance rate dropped in 2024. States counted 73.8% of provisional ballots, down from 78.6% in 2022 and 78.3% in 2020. Rejections rose to 25.1%, which is 3.8 points above 2022. Midterms usually show higher acceptance than presidential years. The EAC’s earlier review found about 79% counted in midterms and 69% in presidential years.
Provisional Ballots in Maricopa County 2026: Arizona’s Largest County
Maricopa County Ballots Awaiting Processing, Nov. 4 (each █ = 10000)
Early ballots awaiting curing █████████████████ 172000
Ready for tabulation ██▌ 29000
Provisional ballots ▌ 6300
| Measure | Maricopa County, November 4 |
|---|---|
| Ballots reported | 1,362,745 (52.62% of registered) |
| Registered voters | 2,589,827 |
| Early ballots awaiting curing or processing | About 172,000 |
| Ballots ready for tabulation | About 29,000 |
| Provisional ballots awaiting research | About 6,300 |
| Provisional share of uncounted ballots | About 3.0% |
Source: Maricopa County Elections Department, Updated Unofficial Results, November 4, 2026; share calculated by this report.
Maricopa County had reported 1,362,745 ballots, or 52.62% of its 2,589,827 registered voters, when it posted this update. About 172,000 early ballots still needed curing or processing, and about 29,000 were ready for tabulation. Provisional ballots numbered about 6,300, roughly 3.0% of the uncounted pile.
Maricopa separates provisional ballots into regular and conditional types. Most do not require voters to act. Election workers research eligibility and count the ballot if they confirm it. Conditional ballots may require the voter to act.
Provisional Ballots as a Share of Votes: Usage and Rejection Rates Since 2018
Provisional Voters as a Share of All Voters (each █ = 0.1)
2018 █████████████ 1.3%
2020 ████████ 0.8%
2022 █████ 0.5%
2024 ████████▌ 0.87%
| Year | Provisional Share of Voters | Rejected Share of Votes |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1.3% | Not reported here |
| 2020 | 0.8% | About 0.21% |
| 2022 | 0.5% | About 0.13% |
| 2024 | 0.87% | 0.25% to 0.29% |
| 2026 | Not yet published | Not yet published |
Source: EAC EAVS reports (2018-2022); MIT Election Data and Science Lab (2024 and rejection rates); rejection rates for 2020 and 2022 derived from MIT’s reported changes.
Provisional ballots remain a small share of the electorate. They fell from 1.3% of voters in 2018 to 0.5% in 2022, then rose to 0.87% in 2024. The MIT Election Lab’s Elections Performance Index uses a different base and reports 1.03% for 2024 and 1.04% for 2020. Always name the source when quoting a rate.
Rejection rates stayed under 0.3% of votes. MIT reports 0.25% for 2024, which is 0.12 points above 2022 and 0.04 points above 2020. That implies about 0.13% in 2022 and 0.21% in 2020, by subtraction.
US Provisional Ballot Statistics 2026 – FAQs
How Many Provisional Ballots Were Cast in the 2026 Midterms?
No national total exists yet. North Carolina reported 36,788, and Ohio had about 102,148 outstanding. The EAC will publish national data in mid-to-late 2027.
How Many Provisional Ballots Were Cast in North Carolina in 2026?
The state board’s county report lists 36,788 provisional ballots, with 30,745 on Election Day and 6,043 during early voting. Wake County reported the most, 3,337.
How Many Provisional Ballots Were Outstanding in Ohio in 2026?
About 102,148, according to the Ohio Capital Journal’s report on the close attorney general race.
What Percent of Provisional Ballots Were Counted in 2024?
73.8%, or 1,281,399 of 1,736,209. States rejected 25.1%, or 436,258 ballots, according to the EAC.
What Is the Main Reason Provisional Ballots Are Rejected?
The voter was not registered. MIT Election Lab data put this at about 50% of rejections in 2024.
Why Do Voters Cast Provisional Ballots?
Common reasons include a name missing from the roll, no acceptable photo ID, or an eligibility challenge. About 40% of 2024 provisional ballots involved voters missing from the roll.
Can I Fix a Provisional Ballot After Election Day in North Carolina?
Yes, for ID. Voters could show photo ID at their county board by noon on November 10, or complete an exception form at the polls.
What Happens After Someone Casts a Provisional Ballot?
County officials check eligibility and then count the ballot fully, count it in part, or reject it. In North Carolina, boards approve, partly approve, or disapprove each ballot at canvass.
Where Can I Find Official 2026 Provisional Ballot Data?
State election offices and county boards publish provisional counts during canvass. The EAC publishes national data in its survey report.
Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.