US Homicide Statistics in 2025 | Largest Drop in Homicides

US Homicide Trends in 2025

US homicide statistics in 2025 reveal a historic turning point in American crime data, with the nation poised to record the largest single-year decline in murders ever documented since the FBI began maintaining comprehensive records in 1960. Based on preliminary data from 550 law enforcement agencies nationwide analyzed through the Real-Time Crime Index, homicides are projected to decrease by approximately 20% compared to 2024 levels, surpassing the previous record decline of 15% set just one year earlier. This extraordinary reduction brings homicide numbers to their lowest point in more than six decades, signaling what many experts describe as a return to pre-pandemic crime levels after the devastating surge that accompanied the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated social disruptions.

The magnitude of this decline extends across virtually all categories of violent crime, with aggravated assaults down 8%, motor vehicle theft falling 23%, and mass shootings decreasing 22% from 2024 figures. Major cities that experienced catastrophic spikes during the pandemic years have seen particularly dramatic reversals: Chicago homicides dropped 30% in 2025 and are down 49% since 2021, New York City homicides fell 21%, and Washington D.C. recorded a 31% decline. Cities including Detroit, Philadelphia, and Baltimore are tracking toward their lowest murder totals since the 1960s, while New Orleans is on pace for its fewest homicides since 1970 and San Francisco since 1940. Federal data released earlier in 2025 showed an 18% decline in homicides between September 2024 and August 2025, accompanied by a 9% reduction in overall violent crime and a 12% decrease in property crime, confirming that the improvements extend beyond just homicides to encompass comprehensive public safety gains across multiple crime categories.

Interesting Facts and Latest Statistics on US Homicides in 2025

Data sources: Real-Time Crime Index (550 agencies), FBI preliminary data, AH Datalytics analysis, Jeff Asher national crime analyst

The 2025 US homicide statistics represent an unprecedented achievement in crime reduction, with preliminary data indicating a 20% decrease in murders nationwide compared to 2024. National crime analyst Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics and former crime analyst for the CIA and New Orleans Police Department, characterizes this as the largest single-year drop ever recorded, noting that even conservative estimates of 16-17% still constitute a historic decline. This follows consecutive years of substantial reductions: 15% in 2024, 13% in 2023, and 6% in 2022, creating a four-year trend that has reversed the pandemic-era spike and brought homicide rates to their lowest levels in more than six decades.

The assessment derives from the Real-Time Crime Index, which Asher founded, compiling monthly crime data from 550 law enforcement agencies across the United States. Federal data corroborates these findings, with FBI preliminary statistics released earlier in 2025 showing homicides fell 18% between September 2024 and August 2025. The crime reduction extends across multiple categories: overall violent crime decreased 9%, property crime fell 12%, aggravated assaults dropped 8%, and motor vehicle theft plummeted 23% during 2025. These comprehensive declines demonstrate that the improvement encompasses not merely homicides but represents a broad-based reduction in criminal activity affecting virtually every measured category of serious crime. The FBI’s official annual report on crime is not expected until the second quarter of 2026, requiring experts to rely on preliminary data from law enforcement agency samples, though the consistency across multiple data sources and geographic regions provides strong confidence in the reported trends.

Major City Homicide Declines in the US 2025

Data sources: Chicago Police Department (CPD), NYPD crime statistics, Metropolitan Police Department of D.C. (MPD), Jeff Asher AH Datalytics analysis

Major American cities experienced dramatic homicide reductions in 2025, with some municipalities recording their lowest murder totals in decades. Chicago saw homicides plunge 30% in 2025 compared to 2024, and the decline becomes even more striking when examined over a longer timeframe: homicides are down 49% since 2021, when the city recorded nearly 800 murders at the pandemic peak, according to Chicago Police Department data. New York City recorded a 21% homicide decrease as of December 28, 2025, with Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch announcing that the first eleven months of 2025 saw the fewest shooting incidents and shooting victims in recorded history. Washington D.C. experienced a 31% homicide decline as of December 30, 2025, according to the Metropolitan Police Department’s online data, matching the extraordinary reductions seen in other major metropolitan areas.

The improvements extend to cities across diverse regions and demographic profiles. Detroit, Philadelphia, and Baltimore are all tracking toward their lowest murder totals since the 1960s, representing six-decade lows for these historically high-crime cities, according to Jeff Asher’s analysis. New Orleans, despite suffering a deadly car-ramming terrorist attack on New Year’s Day 2025 that killed multiple people, is still on pace to record its fewest murders since 1970, demonstrating that even with a mass-casualty event, the broader trend toward violence reduction remains intact. Perhaps most remarkably, San Francisco is projected to see its fewest homicides since 1940, an 85-year low that predates most current residents. These city-specific declines validate the national trends observed in aggregate data and demonstrate that the homicide reduction phenomenon transcends geographic boundaries, affecting cities in the Midwest, Northeast, South, and West Coast, suggesting common factors driving crime down across diverse urban environments with different policing strategies, demographics, and socioeconomic conditions.

Pandemic-Era Homicide Surge and Recovery in the US 2020-2025

Data sources: FBI national statistics, NYPD crime statistics, Chicago Police Department data, Philadelphia Police Department data, Robert Boyce expert analysis

The pandemic-era homicide surge that began in 2020 created one of the most dramatic spikes in violent crime in modern American history, with the nation experiencing a 30% increase in homicides according to FBI data. Robert Boyce, retired chief of detectives for the New York Police Department, recalled that when he retired in 2018, New York City recorded fewer than 300 homicides that year. By 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold, murders in New York City jumped to 462, representing a 44% increase from the 317 homicides recorded in 2019, according to NYPD crime statistics. The violence continued climbing in 2021 with 488 homicides, a 4% additional increase, before beginning the gradual descent that has now brought the city back toward pre-pandemic levels.

Chicago experienced similarly devastating increases, recording 769 homicides in 2020—a jump of 274 murders compared to the previous year—and reaching a peak of 797 homicides in 2021, according to Chicago Police Department data. Philadelphia saw a 40% increase in homicides in 2020 compared to 2019, according to Philadelphia Police Department data, with violence continuing to escalate through 2021 when the city hit an all-time record of 562 murders. Boyce explained that multiple factors converged to create this perfect storm of violence: courts and schools were shut down, police departments could not operate normally, the police-involved killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis led to mistrust of law enforcement and prompted calls to defund police departments, and gang activity intensified. The pandemic was not officially declared over until May 2023, but by that point, cities had begun implementing strategies to reverse the tide. As of 2025, experts including Boyce conclude that crime levels are “back to normal” and “just a little above” pre-pandemic levels, representing a remarkable recovery from what many feared would be a permanent elevation in American violence.

Mass Shooting Statistics in the US 2025

Data sources: Gun Violence Archive, FBI incident reports, Local police department data

Mass shootings in the US during 2025 declined significantly alongside the broader homicide reduction trend. According to the Gun Violence Archive, which tracks shootings across the country and defines a mass shooting as an incident with at least four victims shot (either injured or killed, not including the shooter), the year is poised to end with mass shootings down 22% from the 503 committed in 2024. With nearly 400 mass shootings projected for 2025, this represents more than 100 fewer incidents compared to the previous year, though the absolute number remains distressingly high and demonstrates that mass gun violence continues to plague American communities despite overall improvements in public safety.

Among the nearly 400 mass shootings in 2025, several particularly devastating incidents occurred at places of worship and educational institutions. On August 27, tragedy struck Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis when a 23-year-old shooter opened fire through church windows during a service, killing two children ages 8 and 10 and injuring 21 people, with 14 of the injured being children, police said. The suspect, Robin Westman, whose mother once worked at the church, died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound, authorities said. On September 28, a mass shooting at a Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints chapel in Grand Blanc, Michigan left four people dead and eight injured after the suspect, 40-year-old Thomas Sanford of Burton, Michigan, crashed his truck into the building, opened fire, and set the chapel ablaze, according to the FBI. Sanford, who served as a Marine sergeant and was deployed in Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2007, was killed in a shootout with police, authorities said. On December 13, a gunman opened fire in a lecture hall at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, killing two students and injuring nine others. Following a weeklong search, the suspect, 48-year-old Claudio Manuel Neves Valente, a former Brown graduate student, was found dead at a New Hampshire storage facility from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound, authorities said. Neves Valente is also suspected of killing MIT professor Nuno F.G. Laureiro two days after the Brown University shooting, according to federal prosecutors.

Law Enforcement Response and Recovery Strategies in the US 2024-2025

Data sources: NYPD operational reports, Robert Boyce expert analysis, Federal partnership programs, Presidential executive actions

Law enforcement agencies across the United States implemented comprehensive strategies to reverse the pandemic-era homicide surge, with restructured operations and federal partnerships playing crucial roles in the recovery. Robert Boyce, retired NYPD chief of detectives, explained that departments “fought back” and “completely redid” police operations to become “more narcotics-focused” with expanded narcotics divisions, recognizing the connection between drug trafficking, gang activity, and violent crime. The NYPD reported seeing “gradual decreases” as a result of these strategic shifts in resource allocation and operational priorities.

The NYPD and other law enforcement agencies also worked with federal prosecutors to target gang members, whom Boyce identified as a “major driver of violent crime during the pandemic” and continuing into the present. This coordinated federal-local approach enabled more effective prosecution of violent offenders. The federal government strengthened partnerships with local police agencies and provided grants to support programs to reduce violent crime, enabling municipalities to implement evidence-based interventions. President Donald Trump deployed National Guard troops to Washington D.C. and several other large cities in August 2025 to help combat crime, a decision that followed a May 21, 2025 shooting at the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington D.C. that killed two staff members of the Israeli Embassy, according to the FBI. The deployment occurred even as crime statistics were already showing dramatic declines, reflecting a political response to high-profile violent incidents. Boyce emphasized that police departments gradually restored normal operations after pandemic disruptions that had shuttered courts and schools, declaring “I’m seeing now that we’re back to normal. The reset is here. That’s great news.” When asked if the country had returned to pre-pandemic crime levels, Boyce confirmed “We’re just a little above and not much,” indicating the recovery has successfully brought violent crime near baseline levels that existed before COVID-19.

Crime Data Reliability and Controversies in the US 2025

Data sources: House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform interim staff report, District of Columbia court documents, NBC Washington WRC-TV interview, FBI reporting schedule

Questions about crime data reliability have emerged alongside the dramatic homicide declines, particularly in Washington D.C. A lawsuit filed against the District of Columbia in 2020 by a former Metropolitan Police Department sergeant-turned-whistleblower claimed the MPD routinely “misclassified crimes” and that “districts compete against each other to get the largest reduction in the crime statistics.” The lawsuit was settled out of court in August 2025, with the District of Columbia agreeing to dismiss the case “without any admission of any liability,” according to court documents.

On December 14, 2025, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform released an interim staff report alleging that its investigation found MPD Chief Pamela A. Smith, who announced this month that she is stepping down, “pressured and at times directed commanders to manipulate crime data in order to maintain the appearance of low crime in the nation’s capital.” In a December 15, 2025 interview with NBC Washington D.C. station WRC-TV, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser responded to the allegations, saying “I don’t see any evidence of that.” The controversy highlights ongoing concerns about the accuracy of reported crime statistics, particularly when dramatic improvements are announced. The FBI’s official annual report on crime isn’t expected to be released until the second quarter of 2026, leaving experts including Jeff Asher to rely on preliminary data from samplings of law enforcement agencies. While the consistency across 550 agencies in the Real-Time Crime Index and corroboration from FBI preliminary data provide confidence in the national trends, the D.C. controversy serves as a reminder that individual jurisdiction data may be subject to manipulation or misclassification, complicating efforts to understand the true scope of crime changes.

Victim Perspectives on Homicide Statistics in the US 2025

Data sources: ABC News interviews, Federal court records, Tamara Tarpinian-Jachym victim family testimony

Despite the dramatic homicide declines in 2025, the human toll of violence remains devastating for families who lost loved ones. The falling homicide numbers offered little solace to Tamara Tarpinian-Jachym of Massachusetts, whose 21-year-old son, Eric Tarpinian-Jachym, was killed on June 30, 2025 when he was caught in the crossfire of a shooting in Washington D.C., less than a mile from the White House. Eric was a University of Massachusetts student who, at the time he was killed, was a Congressional intern for Rep. Ron Estes, R-Kansas.

Three teenagers, including two brothers, were arrested on murder charges and are being prosecuted as adults in federal court in the death of Tarpinian-Jachym’s son. One of the suspects charged in his death was also charged in a separate homicide of a 17-year-old girl in Washington D.C. All three defendants charged in Tarpinian-Jachym’s homicide have pleaded not guilty. Tamara Tarpinian-Jachym told ABC News: “You can skew data any way you want. I believe that there’s more crime, violent crime, especially in our major cities,” expressing skepticism about the statistical improvements despite her city showing a 31% homicide decline. She added: “My son was innocent. Others were innocent victims of this crime. If more people died, it would have been a mass shooting. But my son was the only one who died.” Citing her own experience, Tarpinian-Jachym said blanket homicide statistics don’t take into account the suffering of family members left to grieve: “It tears the family apart. You never have inner peace. My heart goes out to all murder victims this year.” Tarpinian-Jachym told ABC News that she agreed with President Donald Trump’s decision in August to deploy National Guard troops to Washington D.C. and several other large cities to help combat crime, demonstrating how personal tragedy shapes policy perspectives independent of aggregate statistical trends.

Expert Analysis of Crime Trends in the US 2025

Data sources: AH Datalytics, NYPD, FBI reporting schedule, Expert interviews with ABC News

Expert analysis of crime trends in 2025 provides authoritative context for understanding the historic homicide decline. Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics and former crime analyst for both the CIA and New Orleans Police Department, serves as one of the nation’s leading authorities on crime statistics. Asher founded the Real-Time Crime Index, which collects monthly crime data from 550 law enforcement agencies nationwide, providing one of the most comprehensive non-governmental sources of current crime data. Based on this sampling, Asher told ABC News that 2025 is poised to end with roughly a 20% decrease in homicides nationwide, adding: “So, even taking a conservative view, let’s say its 17% or 16%, you’re still looking at the largest one-year drop ever recorded in 2025.” Asher noted that the dramatic drop in homicides surpasses the 15% decline in 2024, which was then the largest decrease on record, and emphasized that the number of homicides nationwide is expected to be the lowest since the FBI began keeping such records in 1960.

Robert Boyce, retired chief of detectives for the New York Police Department, provides additional expert perspective on the crime decline’s legitimacy and causes. Boyce, who retired from the NYPD in 2018 when the city had fewer than 300 homicides that year, has observed the complete cycle of the pandemic surge and subsequent recovery. He explained that when the COVID pandemic hit in 2020, courts and schools were shut down and police couldn’t do their jobs normally, while the George Floyd killing created mistrust of law enforcement. Boyce said the NYPD and other agencies fought back by restructuring to be more narcotics-focused and working with federal prosecutors to target gang members. Despite the string of high-profile killings and attacks in 2025, Boyce said the dramatic drop in homicides is real, declaring: “I’m seeing now that we’re back to normal. The reset is here. That’s great news.” When asked if the country is back to pre-pandemic crime levels, Boyce said: “We’re just a little above and not much.” New York Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch announced that in the first 11 months of 2025, the nation’s largest city saw the fewest shooting incidents and shooting victims in recorded history, providing additional confirmation of the positive trends from current law enforcement leadership.

Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.

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