Murder Rate Statistics in US 2026 | Key Facts

Murder Rate in the US 2026

The United States has experienced a remarkable transformation in public safety during 2025 and early 2026, with murder rates plummeting to historic lows not seen in over a century. According to data from the Council on Criminal Justice and preliminary reports from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the nation witnessed the largest single-year drop in murders ever recorded in 2025, with homicides falling 21% across 35 major cities. This extraordinary decline represents approximately 922 fewer killings compared to 2024, signaling a complete reversal of the COVID-era crime surge that peaked in 2020 and 2021. The national homicide rate is projected to have fallen to approximately 4.0 per 100,000 residents in 2025, which would mark the lowest rate ever recorded in law enforcement or public health data dating back to 1900.

This historic achievement comes after three consecutive years of substantial declines in violent crime across the nation. The murder rate dropped 13% in 2023, followed by a 15% decrease in 2024, and then the unprecedented 21% plunge in 2025. Early data from 2026 suggests this downward trend is continuing, with multiple major cities reporting significant reductions in homicides during the first weeks of the year. Washington, D.C., for instance, went more than three weeks without a single homicide at the start of 2026, the longest such streak in nearly 30 years. The data indicates that the murder rate has declined 44% from its recent peak in 2021, bringing violent crime to levels not seen since the 1960s in many jurisdictions.

Key Facts About Murder Rate in the US 2026

Data Source: Council on Criminal Justice Year-End 2025 Crime Trends Report, FBI Crime Data Explorer, White House Press Secretary statements, Metropolitan Police Department D.C.

The murder rate statistics for 2026 reveal an unprecedented turnaround in American public safety. The 21% reduction in homicides during 2025 represents the largest single-year percentage drop in recorded history, surpassing even the 15% decline observed in 2024. This means that for three consecutive years, the United States has set new records for the largest annual decrease in murder rates. The projected national homicide rate of 4.0 per 100,000 residents for 2025 would eclipse the previous historic low of 4.4 per 100,000 recorded in 2014, making it the safest year in terms of homicides since comprehensive national crime statistics began being collected in 1900.

The geographic distribution of these declines has been remarkably widespread, with 31 out of 35 cities in the Council on Criminal Justice study reporting reduced murder rates in 2025. The cities experiencing the most dramatic improvements include Denver, Colorado, which saw a 41% reduction in homicides, Washington, D.C., and Omaha, Nebraska, both posting approximately 40% decreases. Other major metropolitan areas also recorded substantial declines: Chicago experienced a 30% drop, while Los Angeles saw homicides fall by 39%. Even cities that historically struggled with high crime rates, such as Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Detroit, are reporting homicide numbers at their lowest levels since the 1960s.

Murder Rate Trends in the US 2026 by Major Cities

Data Source: Council on Criminal Justice Crime Trends Report Year-End 2025, Local Police Department Statistics

The murder rate data from major cities in 2025 and early 2026 demonstrates that this historic decline is not limited to a few isolated locations but represents a broad national trend. Denver led all major cities with a stunning 41% reduction in homicides, bringing the total number of murders down to just 37 for the entire year of 2025. This represents the third-fewest annual total the city has recorded since 1990, and when adjusted for population growth, it marks the second-lowest homicide rate during that period. Washington, D.C., which had been struggling with elevated crime rates and recorded 274 homicides in 2023 (its highest since 1997), saw a remarkable turnaround with a 40% decrease in 2025.

The improvement in Chicago is particularly noteworthy given the city’s historical challenges with gun violence. The 30% decline in homicides during 2025 brings the total 49% below the peak levels recorded in 2021. Chicago Police Department data shows this represents one of the lowest homicide counts the city has experienced in decades. Similarly, Los Angeles recorded a 39% reduction, while Philadelphia, Detroit, and Baltimore are all on track to record their fewest murders since the 1960s. Even New York City, which had already achieved relatively low crime rates, managed an additional 10% reduction in homicides during 2025.

National Murder Rate Statistics in the US 2026

Data Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation Crime Data Explorer, Council on Criminal Justice Analysis, Bureau of Justice Statistics

The national murder rate statistics for 2026 reflect the culmination of an extraordinary three-year decline that has brought homicide levels to historic lows. The projected homicide rate of 4.0 per 100,000 residents for 2025 represents a complete reversal of the COVID-era surge that saw murders spike 31% in 2020, the largest single-year increase since comprehensive national data collection began in 1900. The FBI’s Crime Data Explorer reported that the murder and non-negligent manslaughter rate dropped 14.9% in 2024 to 5.0 per 100,000 residents, down from 5.7 in 2023. This continued the trend that began in 2023, when the rate fell from 6.5 per 100,000.

The overall violent crime rate in 2024 reached 359.1 per 100,000 residents, marking the lowest level in 20 years and surpassing the previous low of 372.4 per 100,000 set in 2014. This broader decline in violent crime includes substantial reductions across multiple categories: gun homicides decreased 16.7% in 2024, assaults with a firearm dropped 8.6%, rape fell 5.2%, robbery declined 8.9%, and aggravated assault was down 3%. The property crime rate also reached record lows, with motor vehicle thefts plummeting 18.6% in 2024 alone.

Violent Crime Categories Beyond Murder in the US 2026

Data Source: Council on Criminal Justice Year-End 2025 Report, FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Program

While the murder rate has captured the most attention, the decline in other violent crimes in 2025 and early 2026 has been equally impressive. Carjacking, which had surged during the pandemic era, experienced the most dramatic reduction with a 43% decrease in 2025 alone, bringing it 61% below its 2023 peak. This decline is particularly significant in cities like Washington, D.C., where carjackings had become a major public safety concern. Gun assaults, which are often precursors to homicides, fell 22% in 2025 and are now 44% below their 2021 peak levels, suggesting that the reduction in murders is part of a broader decrease in gun violence.

Robbery incidents decreased 23% during 2025, with many cities reporting even steeper declines. In Memphis, Tennessee, where federal agents and National Guard troops were deployed to assist local law enforcement, robberies plummeted 70%. Aggravated assaults, while declining more modestly at 9% for 2025, remain 19% below 2021 levels. Property crimes also showed significant improvement, with motor vehicle theft dropping 27% in 2025, continuing a trend that saw an 18.6% reduction in 2024. Shoplifting decreased 10%, and residential burglaries are 51% below 2018 levels.

FBI Law Enforcement Activity and Murder Rate in the US 2026

Data Source: White House Press Secretary statements, Federal Bureau of Investigation

The substantial increase in FBI law enforcement activity during 2025 coincided with the historic decline in the murder rate. According to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, the FBI increased its violent crime arrests by 100% in 2025 compared to 2024. The total number of FBI arrests from Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025, through January 20, 2026, exceeded 67,000, representing a 197% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. This intensified federal law enforcement effort included the disruption of 1,800 gangs and criminal enterprises, a 210% increase from the prior year.

The FBI’s enhanced enforcement activities specifically targeted the most serious offenders, with 1,700 child predators and more than 300 human traffickers arrested across the country during 2025. Additionally, 6 of the FBI’s top 10 Most Wanted fugitives were captured since the beginning of 2025. This aggressive approach to federal law enforcement has been credited by administration officials as a key factor in the declining murder rate, though criminologists note that multiple factors likely contributed to the historic reduction.

Washington D.C. Murder Rate Statistics in 2026

Data Source: Metropolitan Police Department Washington D.C., White House statements, Council on Criminal Justice

Washington, D.C., provides a striking example of the dramatic turnaround in the murder rate during 2025 and 2026. After recording 274 homicides in 2023, the city’s deadliest year in more than two decades, the nation’s capital experienced a 32% reduction to 187 homicides in 2024, followed by continued improvement through 2025. The early weeks of 2026 have been particularly remarkable, with the city recording only 2 homicides in January, one of the lowest monthly totals in a decade. As of February 5, 2026, the city had recorded just 3 homicides for the year, an 83% decrease compared to the 18 homicides during the same period in 2025.

Most notably, Washington, D.C., went more than three weeks without a single homicide at the start of 2026, marking the first time in nearly 30 years that the city has achieved such a lengthy period without a killing. This dramatic improvement extended beyond homicides to other violent crimes as well. As of early February 2026, sex abuse crimes were down 63%, robberies had fallen 58%, motor vehicle theft plummeted 58%, and burglaries decreased 44% compared to the same period in 2025. The overall crime rate showed a 600-point drop in the last year.

Factors Contributing to Murder Rate Decline in the US 2026

Data Source: Council on Criminal Justice expert analysis, academic research, government reports

Understanding what drove the historic decline in the murder rate during 2025 remains complex, with researchers and experts pointing to multiple contributing factors rather than a single cause. The Council on Criminal Justice convened leading experts who identified several key elements. Many criminologists emphasize the role of post-pandemic stabilization, as cities returned to more stable routines, employment levels improved, and social support systems were re-established. The spike in gun sales that occurred during the pandemic also plateaued, potentially reducing access to firearms among those most likely to commit violence.

Federal funding played a substantial role, particularly the American Rescue Plan Act, which allocated $362 billion to state, local, tribal, and territorial governments. These funds helped stabilize local governments reeling from pandemic-related revenue losses and provided critical support for violence prevention programs. Cities that invested in Community Violence Intervention (CVI) programs, which employ trained outreach workers to mediate conflicts and connect at-risk individuals with services, saw particularly impressive results. The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act also provided additional federal funding for violence prevention efforts, though some of this funding ended in 2025.

Murder Rate Projections and Outlook for 2026

Data Source: Council on Criminal Justice expert forecasts, policy analysis

Looking ahead to 2026, experts project that the murder rate will likely continue its downward trajectory, though with greater variation across different jurisdictions. The Council on Criminal Justice estimates that if the 2025 decline holds in final national data, the homicide rate will have reached 4.0 per 100,000 residents, the lowest level ever recorded. However, forecasters caution that sustaining these gains may prove challenging. Under the American Rescue Plan Act, funds had to be allocated by the end of 2024 and must be fully disbursed by the end of 2026, meaning that much of this critical funding stream has already been spent or will soon be exhausted.

Experts predict that jurisdictions will experience different outcomes based on how they utilized federal funding. Cities that invested primarily in crime suppression measures, such as increased police presence and enforcement, are likely to see quicker upticks in crime as federal support wanes. Conversely, communities that invested in broader prevention strategies, including youth programs, mental health services, and economic development, may experience more sustained improvements. The early data from 2026 is encouraging, with multiple cities continuing to report declining murder rates, but researchers emphasize the need for continued investment in evidence-based violence prevention strategies to maintain the historic progress achieved in 2025.

Historical Context of Murder Rate in the US 2026

Data Source: FBI historical data, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Council on Criminal Justice historical analysis

The 2025 and early 2026 murder rate statistics must be understood within the broader historical context of American crime trends. The United States experienced its highest modern homicide rates in the early 1990s, with the rate reaching approximately 9.8 per 100,000 residents in 1991 during the height of the crack cocaine epidemic. Many major cities, including Washington, D.C., which recorded 482 homicides in 1991, earned reputations as among the most dangerous places in the developed world. From that peak, crime began a steady decline through the 1990s and 2000s, eventually reaching a modern low of 4.4 per 100,000 in 2014.

However, the COVID-19 pandemic and the social unrest of 2020 triggered the largest single-year increase in homicides since national data collection began, with murders surging 30% in 2020 and reaching a peak of approximately 6.9 per 100,000 residents in 2021. This spike reversed decades of progress and brought murder rates back to levels not seen since the mid-1990s. The subsequent three-year decline from 2023 through 2025, culminating in the projected rate of 4.0 per 100,000 residents, represents an equally historic reversal. The 44% reduction from peak to current levels demonstrates the volatility of crime rates and the importance of sustained, evidence-based policy interventions.

Regional Variations in Murder Rate Across the US 2026

Data Source: Council on Criminal Justice city-level analysis, local police department statistics

The decline in the murder rate during 2025 and early 2026 has been remarkably widespread geographically, though significant regional variations exist. Western cities demonstrated some of the most dramatic improvements, with Denver leading the nation at 41% reduction, Los Angeles achieving a 39% decrease, and San Francisco on track to record its fewest murders since 1940. Midwestern cities also showed strong progress, with Chicago down 30%, Detroit experiencing its lowest homicide levels since the 1960s, and Omaha, Nebraska, matching Washington, D.C.’s 40% decline.

Eastern cities, many of which had struggled with elevated crime rates during the pandemic, demonstrated substantial improvements. Philadelphia, Baltimore, and New York City all recorded significant declines, with Baltimore and Philadelphia on pace for their lowest homicide counts since the 1960s. Southern cities showed more variable outcomes, with Atlanta posting an impressive 32% reduction while Little Rock, Arkansas, was the only city among the 35 studied to experience a double-digit increase at 16%. Importantly, the FBI data for 2024 showed that the crime decline extended beyond large cities to suburban and rural areas as well, indicating a truly national phenomenon rather than an urban-only trend.

Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.

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