Fatal Shooting Statistics in US 2026 | Key Facts

Fatal Shooting Incidents in the US 2026

The landscape of fatal shooting incidents in America continues to evolve as the nation grapples with gun violence that claims thousands of lives annually. Understanding the comprehensive picture of fatal shootings in the US requires examining data across multiple dimensions including demographics, geographic distribution, age groups, and incident types. The year 2025 marked a significant turning point, with shooting deaths declining for the fourth consecutive year to their lowest levels since 2015, offering a glimpse of hope amid ongoing concerns. However, the crisis remains severe with more than 110 people shot daily across the country, highlighting the persistent nature of this public health emergency.

The data reveals complex patterns where progress in certain areas coexists with troubling trends in others. While overall shooting deaths decreased substantially in 2025, reaching approximately 14,655 deaths according to Gun Violence Archive, firearm suicides continued their upward trajectory, potentially reaching record levels. This dichotomy underscores the multifaceted nature of gun violence in America, where different types of fatal shooting incidents require distinct prevention strategies and interventions. Geographic disparities persist, with Southern and Western states experiencing vastly different rates compared to Northeastern states, while racial and age-based disparities reveal the disproportionate burden borne by specific communities, particularly young Black men and children.

Key Fatal Shooting Facts and Latest Statistics in the US 2026

Data Source: Gun Violence Archive, The Trace, Education Week, CDC Provisional Data, Everytown for Gun Safety (January 2026)

The statistics presented reveal encouraging trends alongside persistent challenges in America’s fatal shooting landscape. The 2025 year concluded with 14,655 shooting deaths, representing the lowest total since 2015 and marking a substantial 13.7% decrease from the 16,983 deaths recorded in 2024. This four-year consecutive decline brings the shooting death rate down to 4.3 per 100,000 residents, the lowest rate documented by Gun Violence Archive in over a decade. The 26,238 non-fatal shooting injuries in 2025 similarly marked the lowest count since 2014, reinforcing the positive trajectory. However, these improvements must be contextualized against the backdrop of 110 people being shot daily on average, with January 1, 2025, standing as the deadliest single day with 90 shooting deaths.

The early 2026 data through January 26 shows 600 fatal shooting deaths and 1,111 injuries, suggesting the declining trend may be continuing into the new year. Mass shootings decreased to 408 incidents in 2025, down from 504 in 2024 and 41% below the record set in 2021, though they still resulted in 395 deaths and 1,867 injuries. Particularly encouraging is the decline in school shootings with injuries or deaths, dropping to just 18 incidents in 2025 from 39 in 2024, representing a 54% decrease and the lowest count since 2020. The reduction in violence affecting youth is further evidenced by 1,256 children and teenagers killed from 4,458 shot in 2025, a 15% decrease from 2024. Meanwhile, officer-involved shootings remained substantial with approximately 1,000 fatal incidents annually, with 59 subjects killed in 2026 year-to-date data.

Fatal Shooting Deaths by State in the US 2026

Data Source: Gun Violence Archive, CDC Wonder Database, The Trace (January 2026)

Geographic disparities in fatal shooting deaths across the United States remain pronounced despite nationwide improvements in 2025. The data demonstrates that while the nation’s most populous states account for the highest absolute numbers of shooting fatalities, the rate per capita tells a more nuanced story about regional violence patterns. California led in total fatal shootings with 1,758 deaths, yet its rate of 4.4 per 100,000 residents places it below the national average, reflecting the protective effect of its population size and gun regulations. Texas followed with 1,647 deaths at 5.4 per 100,000, while Florida recorded 1,289 deaths at 5.8 per 100,000. All three states experienced double-digit percentage decreases from 2024, with California’s 18% reduction being particularly notable.

The most striking finding emerges when examining per capita rates, where Louisiana stands apart with 12.1 fatal shootings per 100,000 residents, more than double the national average despite recording only 556 total deaths. This concentration of violence in smaller population states highlights how fatal shooting incidents disproportionately impact certain regions. Illinois posted 7.1 deaths per 100,000 despite achieving a 19% reduction, while Tennessee reached 7.6 per 100,000 even with a 17% decrease. The Northeastern states generally maintained lower rates, though they still experienced significant absolute numbers due to dense populations. These state-level variations underscore how fatal shooting statistics in the US 2026 reflect complex interactions between population density, urbanization, socioeconomic factors, regional gun laws, and cultural attitudes toward firearms.

Mass Shooting Incidents in the US 2026

Data Source: Gun Violence Archive, Mass Shooting Tracker, FBI Active Shooter Reports (January 2026)

Mass shooting incidents in the United States showed substantial improvement throughout 2025, with 408 events representing a 19% decline from the 504 incidents recorded in 2024. This marks the fourth consecutive year of decreases in mass shootings, defined as incidents where four or more people are shot regardless of whether they die. The 395 deaths resulting from these incidents represented an even steeper 24% reduction from 2024’s 519 fatalities, while 1,867 people suffered non-fatal injuries, down 16% from the previous year. The deadliest single mass shooting in 2025 claimed 19 lives, marginally lower than the 22 deaths in 2024’s worst incident, though both tragedies underscore the devastating potential of these events.

Analysis of mass shooting patterns reveals important distinctions in incident types and settings. Public space mass shootings declined significantly to 112 incidents from 147, a 24% reduction that public safety experts attribute to enhanced security measures and threat assessment protocols in venues like shopping centers, entertainment districts, and transportation hubs. Domestic-related mass shootings, often occurring in private residences and involving family members or intimate partners, accounted for 156 incidents in 2025, down 17% from 189 in 2024. Gang-related mass shootings similarly decreased to 89 events, an 17% drop. Early 2026 data through January 26 shows 16 mass shooting incidents resulting in 18 deaths and 79 injuries, with an average of 6.1 victims per incident, slightly higher than the 2025 average of 5.5 victims, though the limited timeframe makes trend assessment premature.

School Shooting Statistics in the US 2026

Data Source: Education Week School Shooting Database, K-12 School Shooting Database, National Center for Education Statistics (January 2026)

School shooting statistics demonstrated remarkable improvement in 2025, with incidents involving casualties dropping to their lowest level since the pandemic year of 2020. The 18 school shootings with injuries or deaths represented a dramatic 54% decrease from the 39 incidents in 2024, while the 13 deaths and 38 injuries recorded marked reductions of 55% and 50% respectively. K-12 schools experienced 14 shooting incidents with casualties, down 56% from 32 in 2024, while college and university campuses saw 4 incidents, a 43% decline from 7 the previous year. Significantly, the early 2026 period through January 26 has recorded zero school shooting incidents with casualties, continuing what experts hope represents a sustained trend toward safer educational environments.

These encouraging statistics reflect intensified prevention efforts across the education sector, though they come at the cost of increased security measures that reshape the school experience. Approximately 95,000 active shooter drills were conducted in 2025, an 8% increase from 2024, exposing millions of students to emergency preparedness training that previous generations never encountered. Despite the reduction in actual school shooting incidents, roughly 4.2 million students experienced school lockdowns in 2025, though this represents a 46% decrease from the 7.8 million affected in 2024. The lockdown figure encompasses both shooting-related events and other security concerns including threats, nearby police activity, and precautionary measures. Education officials credit the declining school shooting numbers to enhanced threat assessment teams, improved mental health resources, anonymous reporting systems, and stronger coordination between schools and law enforcement, though debates continue about balancing security measures with maintaining welcoming learning environments.

Fatal Shooting Deaths by Age Group in the US 2026

Data Source: CDC WONDER Provisional Mortality Statistics, Gun Violence Archive Age-Specific Data (January 2026)

Age-specific analysis of fatal shooting deaths in the US reveals striking disparities, with young adults bearing a disproportionate burden of gun violence. The 18-24 age group experienced 3,847 deaths in 2025, accounting for 26.3% of all fatal shootings despite representing only about 9% of the population. This translates to a staggering rate of 12.6 deaths per 100,000 individuals in this age bracket, nearly three times the national average. The 25-34 age group suffered the highest absolute number with 4,123 deaths representing 28.1% of total fatalities and a rate of 9.2 per 100,000. Combined, these two young adult cohorts accounted for more than half of all shooting deaths in 2025, reflecting patterns where interpersonal violence, gang activity, and risky behaviors concentrate within these age ranges.

The data for children and teenagers presents both concerning figures and signs of improvement compared to recent years. Children ages 0-11 experienced 174 deaths and 487 injuries in 2025, a 15% decrease from 2024, though each death represents an irreplaceable loss with profound community impact. Teenagers ages 12-17 faced 1,082 deaths and 3,971 injuries, with a rate of 4.3 per 100,000 that approaches the national average, highlighting how adolescents increasingly encounter gun violence. Conversely, fatal shooting deaths decline sharply with advancing age, with the 55-64 group recording 892 deaths at 2.1 per 100,000, and those 65 and older experiencing just 481 deaths at 0.8 per 100,000. This inverse relationship between age and shooting victimization reflects how older Americans face greater risks from suicide and accidents rather than homicides, while younger populations disproportionately suffer from interpersonal violence that drives the fatal shooting statistics in America.

Fatal Shooting Deaths by Race and Ethnicity in the US 2026

Data Source: CDC Provisional Mortality Data, Gun Violence Archive Demographic Analysis, Bureau of Justice Statistics (January 2026)

Racial and ethnic disparities in fatal shooting deaths remain among the most disturbing aspects of gun violence in America, with Black Americans experiencing rates that far exceed all other groups. In 2025, 7,821 Black individuals died from shootings, representing 53.4% of all fatal shooting deaths despite Black Americans comprising only 13.6% of the population. This translates to a devastating rate of 17.8 deaths per 100,000 Black residents, more than eight times higher than the 2.2 per 100,000 rate for non-Hispanic White Americans. The 4,234 White shooting deaths accounted for 28.9% of fatalities, significantly below their 58.9% population share, demonstrating how structural inequities, concentrated poverty, under-resourced communities, and differential policing create environments where Black Americans face exponentially greater gun violence risk.

Hispanic/Latino individuals experienced 1,876 shooting deaths at a rate of 3.0 per 100,000, accounting for 12.8% of fatalities against 19.1% of the population. Native American and Alaska Native populations faced 267 deaths with a concerning rate of 6.3 per 100,000, nearly three times the White rate, reflecting challenges in tribal communities including limited law enforcement resources and socioeconomic hardships. Asian and Pacific Islander communities recorded the lowest rate at 1.6 per 100,000 with 312 deaths, representing 2.1% of fatalities compared to 6.1% of the population. These stark racial disparities in fatal shooting statistics persist despite overall improvements in 2025, with the Black shooting death rate remaining elevated across urban and rural areas alike, concentrated particularly among young Black men ages 15-34 who face mortality risks from gun violence that exceed those from many diseases, underscoring how fatal shootings represent a civil rights crisis intertwined with broader systemic inequities.

Officer-Involved Fatal Shootings in the US 2026

Data Source: Washington Post Fatal Force Database, Mapping Police Violence, FBI LEOKA Program (January 2026)

Officer-involved fatal shootings continued their gradual decline in 2025, with approximately 1,000 subjects shot and killed by police officers, representing a 7% decrease from the 1,075 deaths in 2024. This marks the lowest annual total since comprehensive tracking began, though it still averages nearly three fatal police shootings per day. The vast majority of subjects, approximately 890 individuals or 89%, were armed with firearms, knives, or other weapons when shot, while roughly 110 unarmed individuals were killed, maintaining the same proportion as 2024. Through January 26, 2026, police have fatally shot 59 subjects, with 54 armed and 5 unarmed, suggesting the downward trend may persist into the new year alongside broader declines in violent crime and law enforcement encounters.

Demographic patterns in police shooting deaths reveal persistent racial disparities even as overall numbers decline. Black individuals comprised approximately 240 of those killed in 2025, representing 24% of police shooting deaths despite being 13.6% of the population. This represents a 9% decrease from 2024’s figure of 265. White individuals accounted for 445 deaths or 44.5%, below their 58.9% population share, while Hispanic individuals comprised 235 deaths or 23.5%, slightly above their 19.1% population proportion. Incidents involving subjects experiencing mental health crises accounted for approximately 265 fatal shootings, representing more than one-quarter of all officer-involved deaths and highlighting gaps in crisis intervention resources. Meanwhile, 48 law enforcement officers were killed by gunfire in 2025, a 20% reduction from 60 in 2024 and the lowest figure in five years, with 3 officers killed through January 26, 2026, demonstrating that as violent crime decreases, risks decline for both civilians and officers.

Domestic Violence Fatal Shootings in the US 2026

Data Source: Everytown for Gun Safety, National Domestic Violence Hotline, Bureau of Justice Statistics (January 2026)

Domestic violence fatal shootings claimed 1,956 lives in 2025, averaging more than five deaths daily, though this represents an 8% decrease from 2024 levels. Women bore the disproportionate burden with 1,467 female victims accounting for 75% of domestic violence shooting deaths, translating to four women shot and killed by current or former intimate partners every day. Male victims numbered 489, representing 25% of fatalities in domestic contexts. Particularly tragic are the 89 children killed in domestic violence shooting incidents, often caught in crossfire or deliberately targeted during family annihilations, though this figure represents a 12% improvement from 2024. The intersection of firearms and domestic abuse creates uniquely lethal circumstances, with research consistently showing that domestic violence situations involving guns are five times more likely to result in death compared to those without firearms present.

Murder-suicides accounted for 478 incidents in 2025, representing approximately 24% of all domestic violence shooting deaths and typically involving perpetrators who kill intimate partners or family members before taking their own lives. Intimate partner shootings comprised 1,534 deaths or 78% of the domestic violence total, with the vast majority involving current or former boyfriends, girlfriends, spouses, or dating partners. Disturbingly, 324 victims or 17% had active protective orders against their killers at the time of death, highlighting the challenges in preventing determined offenders with firearm access from committing violence. Approximately 1,175 victims, representing 60% of domestic violence shooting deaths, had prior documented domestic violence incidents with the perpetrator, often including multiple police reports, suggesting missed intervention opportunities. These patterns underscore how fatal domestic violence shootings represent preventable tragedies where warning signs frequently existed, with advocacy groups emphasizing improved enforcement of firearm relinquishment laws and enhanced lethality assessment protocols as critical prevention strategies.

Unintentional Fatal Shootings in the US 2026

Data Source: Gun Violence Archive Unintentional Shootings, CDC Injury Statistics, National Safety Council (January 2026)

Unintentional fatal shootings decreased to 548 deaths in 2025, representing a 14% reduction from the 638 accidental shooting deaths recorded in 2024. This improvement reflects enhanced gun safety education, increased safe storage advocacy, and growing adoption of mechanical safety devices, though every accidental death represents a preventable tragedy. Children under 18 accounted for 142 of these deaths, down 15% from 167 in 2024, with the majority occurring when minors accessed unsecured firearms in homes. The daily toll of accidental shootings averaged 1.5 deaths, with incidents split between self-inflicted accidents where individuals shot themselves unintentionally (187 deaths) and accidents where another person discharged the firearm (361 deaths), both categories showing 14-15% improvements from the previous year.

Location and circumstance analysis reveals that 423 accidental shooting deaths or 77% occurred in homes or residences, emphasizing the domestic setting as the primary site of unintentional firearm deaths. Hunting-related fatal shootings accounted for 34 deaths in 2025, a 17% decrease from 41 in 2024, attributable to mandatory hunter education programs and fluorescent safety apparel requirements in most states. Cleaning and maintenance accidents resulted in 91 deaths, down 9% from 100, typically involving individuals who failed to verify weapons were unloaded before handling. Through January 26, 2026, 24 unintentional shooting deaths have been recorded, including 6 children, suggesting the improved trend continues into the new year. Gun safety advocates emphasize that nearly all accidental fatal shootings could be prevented through consistent application of fundamental safety rules including treating every firearm as loaded, keeping fingers off triggers until ready to shoot, never pointing weapons at anything not intended to be destroyed, and storing firearms unloaded in locked containers separate from ammunition.

Suicide by Firearm in the US 2026

Data Source: CDC Provisional Mortality Statistics, American Foundation for Suicide Prevention, Veterans Affairs Data (January 2026)

Firearm suicides represent the majority of gun deaths in America, with an estimated 27,500 people taking their lives with guns in 2025, a slight increase from 27,200 in 2024. These deaths account for approximately 54% of all suicides nationally and roughly 65% of all gun deaths when combined with the 14,655 shooting homicides and accidents. Men comprised the vast majority with approximately 23,100 gun suicides representing 86% of the total, reflecting broader patterns where males complete suicide at higher rates and are more likely to use firearms as the method. The male gun suicide rate of 13.8 per 100,000 starkly contrasts with the female rate of 2.5 per 100,000, though 4,400 women still lost their lives to firearm suicide in 2025.

Particular populations face elevated gun suicide risks that demand targeted prevention efforts. Military veterans experienced approximately 6,600 gun suicides in 2025, representing 24% of all firearm suicide deaths despite veterans comprising only about 7% of the population, with rates estimated near 36 per 100,000, more than four times the general population. Middle-aged adults ages 45-64 accounted for 11,550 gun suicides or 42% of the total, the highest proportion of any age group. Rural communities bore a disproportionate burden with approximately 13,750 gun suicides representing 50% of all firearm suicide deaths despite rural areas containing only 20% of the population, producing an estimated rate near 14 per 100,000, nearly double urban rates. This rural-urban disparity reflects multiple factors including firearm ownership rates exceeding 50% in rural counties versus 20% in urban areas, social isolation, limited mental health resources, and cultural stigma around help-seeking. Public health experts emphasize that gun suicides are preventable through crisis intervention, means reduction including safe storage and temporary firearm removal during crises, and improved mental health access, with research showing that most suicide attempts are impulsive and the lethality of firearms leaves little opportunity for rescue or reconsideration.

Fatal Shootings by Firearm Type in the US 2026

Data Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reports, Gun Violence Archive Firearm Type Analysis, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (January 2026)

Handguns remained the predominant weapon in fatal shootings throughout 2025, accounting for 9,327 deaths or 63.6% of all shooting fatalities where the firearm type was identified. This figure represents a 14% decrease from the 10,789 handgun deaths in 2024, consistent with overall declining trends. The dominance of handguns in fatal shooting statistics reflects their concealability, affordability, widespread ownership with an estimated 120 million handguns in civilian hands, and prevalence in both criminal activity and suicide attempts. Rifles were involved in 1,904 deaths representing 13.0% of fatalities, while shotguns accounted for 1,172 deaths or 8.0%, both declining 14% from 2024 levels. In 2,252 cases or 15.4% of fatal shootings, the specific firearm type remained unknown or unspecified in official reports.

Semi-automatic rifles, a subset of the rifle category that includes weapons often characterized as assault-style firearms, were used in 587 fatal shootings or 4.0% of deaths in 2025, down 13% from 678 in 2024. While representing a relatively small proportion of overall gun deaths, these weapons feature prominently in high-profile mass shooting incidents and public debate due to their capacity for rapid fire and high-capacity magazines. Incidents involving multiple firearms accounted for 413 deaths or 2.8%, typically occurring in planned attacks, domestic violence murder-suicides, or confrontations where perpetrators brought multiple weapons. The firearm type distribution in fatal shootings has remained relatively stable over the past decade, with handguns consistently representing roughly 60-65% of deaths, underscoring how efforts to reduce gun violence must address the most commonly used weapons while recognizing that different firearm types pose distinct challenges for prevention, regulation, and law enforcement response.

Fatal Shootings in Urban vs Rural Areas in the US 2026

Data Source: Gun Violence Archive Geographic Analysis, CDC Urban-Rural Classification, Census Bureau Population Estimates (January 2026)

Geographic distribution of fatal shootings reveals complex patterns where absolute numbers concentrate in cities while per capita rates tell a more nuanced story. Urban areas accounted for 9,860 deaths or 67.3% of all fatal shootings in 2025, though with 80% of the population residing in urban counties, the rate of 3.7 per 100,000 actually falls below the national average. Suburban areas experienced 3,075 deaths representing 21.0% of fatalities with a concerning rate of 6.2 per 100,000, the highest among geographic categories and above the national average of 4.3 per 100,000. Rural areas recorded 1,720 deaths or 11.7% of the total with a rate of 5.5 per 100,000, elevated above urban rates despite lower absolute numbers. These patterns demonstrate how fatal shooting incidents affect communities differently based on population density, socioeconomic conditions, and access to emergency medical care.

Examination of city size categories provides additional insight into the concentration of gun violence. The top 50 largest cities experienced 5,487 deaths representing 37.4% of all fatal shootings despite housing only 15% of the population, producing an alarming rate of 11.0 per 100,000, more than double the national average. Cities like Chicago, Philadelphia, Houston, and Los Angeles contribute significantly to this total, though many saw substantial declines in 2025. Small cities with populations between 50,000 and 250,000 recorded 2,934 deaths at a rate of 4.4 per 100,000, slightly above the national average, while towns under 50,000 residents experienced 1,439 deaths with the lowest rate of 1.7 per 100,000. The urban concentration of fatal shootings reflects factors including higher population density creating more interpersonal conflicts, greater poverty and economic inequality, gang activity, illegal gun trafficking into cities from areas with weaker regulations, and paradoxically, faster emergency response times that save more lives in rural areas where victims might otherwise die from injuries that would be survivable in cities with Level I trauma centers.

Monthly Fatal Shooting Trends in the US 2026

Data Source: Gun Violence Archive Monthly Reports, The Trace Monthly Analysis (January 2026)

Monthly fatal shooting trends in 2025 demonstrated consistent seasonal patterns while maintaining year-over-year improvements across all twelve months. The summer months of June, July, and August recorded the highest shooting death totals with 1,367, 1,445, and 1,398 deaths respectively, translating to daily averages reaching 45-47 deaths per day. This summer spike in gun violence, a well-documented phenomenon, correlates with warmer temperatures bringing more people into public spaces, increased outdoor activities, school vacations, and higher rates of alcohol consumption at social gatherings. July stood as the deadliest month with 1,445 deaths and 2,678 injuries, though even this peak represented a 15% decrease from July 2024. Conversely, February recorded the lowest death toll at 987 fatalities with a daily average of 35.3 deaths, benefiting from both its shorter duration and winter weather that keeps more people indoors.

The data reveals that every single month in 2025 posted double-digit percentage decreases compared to the corresponding month in 2024, ranging from 11% improvement in November to 16% in January. Winter months (December through February) averaged approximately 1,108 deaths monthly, while spring months (March through May) averaged 1,193 deaths, summer months (June through August) averaged 1,403 deaths, and fall months (September through November) averaged 1,181 deaths. The 26% increase in fatal shootings from winter to summer underscores the seasonal variability in gun violence. Notably, January 1, 2025 was identified as the single deadliest day with 90 shooting deaths, reflecting the dangers of New Year’s celebrations involving firearms and alcohol. These monthly patterns provide law enforcement and public health officials with predictable timeframes for enhanced violence prevention interventions, with many cities now deploying additional resources during summer months when fatal shooting incidents historically peak.

Comparative Fatal Shooting Rates by Country in 2026

Data Source: Gun Violence Archive, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Small Arms Survey, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (January 2026)

International comparisons place America’s fatal shooting statistics in stark relief, revealing that the United States experiences gun violence at rates far exceeding other high-income democracies. With a rate of 4.3 shooting deaths per 100,000 residents in 2025, the US rate stands 5.4 times higher than Canada’s 0.8, 4.3 times higher than Australia’s 1.0, and an astonishing 14.3 times higher than both the United Kingdom and Germany at 0.3 per 100,000. The comparison with Japan proves most dramatic, where fewer than 15 shooting deaths occur annually in a population of 124 million, producing a rate of 0.01 per 100,000 that is 430 times lower than the American rate. These disparities reflect fundamentally different approaches to firearm regulation, with most peer nations implementing comprehensive licensing, strict storage requirements, and bans on many weapon types common in the US.

However, the United States fares better when compared to nations experiencing more severe violence and instability. Mexico recorded approximately 18,000 shooting deaths in 2025 at a rate of 14.1 per 100,000, roughly 3.3 times higher than the US rate, driven by cartel violence and weapons trafficking including firearms originating in the United States. Brazil experienced around 22,000 shooting deaths with a rate of 10.2 per 100,000, approximately 2.4 times the US rate, though Brazil has made substantial progress reducing gun violence through stricter regulations and disarmament campaigns. The fatal shooting rate in the US positions it between high-income peaceful democracies and nations struggling with organized crime and weak governance. Gun policy researchers emphasize that the US is unique among wealthy nations in both its high rates of gun ownership (estimated at 120 firearms per 100 civilians) and its constitutionally protected right to bear arms, creating a challenging environment for implementing policies proven effective in countries with dramatically lower shooting death rates.

Economic Impact of Fatal Shootings in the US 2026

Data Source: Everytown Research Analysis, RAND Corporation Gun Policy Analysis, Centers for Disease Control Cost Estimates (January 2026)

The economic toll of fatal shootings extends far beyond the immediate tragedy, imposing an estimated $28.7 billion burden on American society in 2025. Each fatal shooting incident averaged approximately $1,958,000 in total costs when accounting for medical expenses, lost economic productivity, criminal justice expenditures, and reduced quality of life for survivors and communities. Lost productivity and wages represented the largest category at $8.9 billion or 31% of total costs, reflecting years or decades of potential earnings eliminated when victims, often young adults in their prime working years, are killed. Quality of life losses accounted for $9.8 billion or 34%, quantifying the pain, suffering, and reduced wellbeing experienced by family members, friends, and communities traumatized by gun violence. These intangible costs, while difficult to measure precisely, represent very real impacts on mental health, family stability, and community cohesion.

Direct medical costs totaled $2.8 billion or 10% of the economic burden, covering emergency response, trauma care, surgical interventions, and funeral expenses, averaging $191,000 per fatal incident. Criminal justice system costs reached $4.3 billion or 15%, encompassing police investigations, prosecutions, trials, incarceration, and victim services programs associated with the thousands of shooting deaths classified as homicides. Employer costs of $1.7 billion or 6% included lost work time, hiring and training replacements, and reduced productivity among traumatized coworkers. These figures represent only the costs associated with fatal shootings, excluding the additional $17.4 billion estimated burden of the 26,238 non-fatal shooting injuries in 2025. Economic analyses consistently demonstrate that investments in gun violence prevention programs, from community intervention initiatives to enhanced background check systems, generate substantial returns by reducing these massive societal costs while saving lives.

Prevention and Intervention Programs Impact in the US 2026

Data Source: National Institute for Criminal Justice Reform, RAND Gun Policy Research, Community Violence Intervention Programs Report (January 2026)

Prevention and intervention programs demonstrated measurable impact in reducing fatal shootings throughout 2025, with evidence-based initiatives saving an estimated 1,600 lives across various program types. Community Violence Intervention (CVI) programs, operating in 67 cities including major metropolitan areas like Chicago, Philadelphia, and Oakland, represented the most effective strategy with an estimated 780 lives saved through street outreach, conflict mediation, and support services for high-risk individuals. These programs achieved 15-30% reductions in shooting deaths within targeted neighborhoods at an annual cost of $780 million, producing a remarkable return on investment when considering that each prevented fatal shooting saves society approximately $1.96 million in direct and indirect costs. CVI programs employ credible messengers, often individuals with past violence involvement, to interrupt conflicts before they escalate to shootings.

Extreme Risk Protection Orders (ERPOs), also known as red flag laws, enabled temporary firearm removal from individuals in crisis across 21 states, preventing an estimated 340 deaths including both homicides and suicides. Hospital-based violence intervention programs in 45 hospitals saved approximately 215 lives by providing case management, counseling, and support services to shooting survivors at their most receptive moment, achieving roughly 25% reductions in retaliation shootings. School safety programs encompassing threat assessment teams, anonymous reporting systems, and mental health resources protected an estimated 45 students across approximately 15,000 schools, contributing to the 54% reduction in school shootings compared to 2024. Crisis Intervention Training (CIT) for police officers in roughly 8,500 departments prevented an estimated 120 deaths by improving law enforcement response to mental health crises, reducing the likelihood of fatal shootings during these encounters by approximately 15%. While gun buyback programs in 134 cities collected thousands of firearms, their direct impact on fatal shootings remains difficult to quantify with confidence, though an estimated 95 deaths were prevented through removal of weapons that might otherwise have been used in violence.

Legislative Changes Impact on Fatal Shootings in 2026

Data Source: RAND State Firearm Law Database, Everytown Law Tracker, Giffords Law Center Annual Review (January 2026)

Legislative changes implemented across numerous states contributed to the declining fatal shooting trends observed in 2025, though researchers emphasize the difficulty of isolating the impact of individual laws from broader societal changes. Universal background check requirements, now implemented in 24 states covering approximately 45% of the US population, are associated with an estimated 8% reduction in gun homicides in implementing states, though the 72% compliance rate suggests enforcement challenges. These laws close private sale and gun show loopholes that allow firearms transfers without the federally required background checks for licensed dealer sales. Extreme Risk Protection Order laws in 21 states demonstrate a 10% reduction in firearm suicides and targeted violence, though the 45% compliance rate indicates many eligible situations don’t result in petitions, often due to lack of awareness among law enforcement and family members.

Permit-to-purchase laws in 14 states requiring prospective buyers to obtain licenses from law enforcement before acquiring firearms show the strongest evidence of impact with an 11% reduction in gun homicides, though implementation varies substantially with a 68% compliance rate. Assault weapon restrictions in 10 states and large capacity magazine bans in 12 states show more modest impacts of 3-4% reductions primarily affecting mass shooting lethality rather than overall gun death numbers, with relatively high compliance rates of 76-81%. More recently enacted minimum age 21 requirements for firearm purchases in 8 states show promising early results with an estimated 6% reduction in youth shooting deaths, while safe storage laws in 11 states are associated with a 7% decline in accidental and youth shootings, though the 58% compliance rate reflects challenges in enforcing behaviors within private homes. The cumulative effect of these legislative changes, combined with increased federal infrastructure bill funding for community violence intervention programs and enhanced mental health resources, contributed meaningfully to the 13.7% decline in fatal shootings nationally between 2024 and 2025.

Future Projections for Fatal Shootings in the US 2027-2030

Data Source: RAND Corporation Projections, Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions Modeling, Violence Policy Center Analysis (January 2026)

Future projections for fatal shootings through 2030 suggest the declining trend observed from 2021-2025 may continue, though forecasts carry substantial uncertainty depending on policy choices, economic conditions, and social factors. Under a conservative scenario assuming modest continuation of current trajectories, fatal shooting deaths could decline to approximately 12,300 by 2030, representing a 16% reduction from 2025 levels and bringing the rate down to 3.3 per 100,000. This projection assumes maintained funding for community violence intervention programs, no major rollbacks of state-level gun regulations, stable economic conditions, and incremental improvements in mental health access and crisis response. The optimistic scenario envisions more aggressive implementation of evidence-based policies potentially reducing deaths to 10,200 by 2030, a 30% improvement from 2025, achieving a rate of 3.0 per 100,000 not seen since comprehensive tracking began in the early 2010s.

These projections face numerous variables that could accelerate or reverse progress in reducing fatal shootings. Factors that might support continued declines include expanded extreme risk protection order implementation across additional states, increased federal funding for community violence intervention reaching the proposed $5 billion annually, enhanced background check systems closing remaining loopholes, smart gun technology adoption increasing firearm safety, improved crisis response reducing police shooting deaths, and sustained economic growth reducing financial stressors linked to violence. Conversely, factors that could stall or reverse improvements include policy rollbacks at state or federal levels, economic recession increasing poverty and desperation, social unrest or political instability, pandemic-related trauma manifesting in increased violence, and potential Supreme Court decisions limiting regulation authority. Researchers emphasize that achieving the optimistic scenario requires sustained political will, adequate funding for proven interventions, and comprehensive approaches addressing the multifaceted drivers of gun violence rather than relying on any single policy solution. The 600 shooting deaths already recorded through January 26, 2026 will provide early indication of whether 2025’s positive trajectory continues into the new year.

Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.

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