Electricity Costs in America 2026
Electricity costs in the United States are moving in the exact opposite direction of gasoline prices heading into 2026 — and for American households, that means the energy budget relief at the gas pump is being partially offset by a steady, structural climb in the monthly power bill. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the average residential electricity price in the US reached 17.29 cents per kilowatt-hour (¢/kWh) in 2025 — a jump of nearly 5% from the year prior and a 31.38% increase from the 2020 average of 13.17¢/kWh in just five years. The EIA’s December 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) projects the 2026 national residential average will rise further to 18.02¢/kWh, marking yet another annual record and the sixth consecutive year of rising residential electricity prices. Unlike gasoline prices, which are dominated by the volatile global crude oil market, electricity price increases are driven primarily by structural, long-term forces: billions of dollars in utility spending on aging grid infrastructure, surging power demand from AI data centers and electric vehicles, rising natural gas fuel costs for power generators, and state-level regulatory decisions that allow utilities to recover capital costs from ratepayers over decades.
The scale of these increases is not trivial when viewed through the lens of a household budget. In 2020, the average US household spent roughly $1,400 per year on electricity based on typical consumption of around 855 kWh per month. By 2025, that same household was paying closer to $1,773 per year — an increase of over $370 annually in just five years. The EIA’s 2026 forecast of 18.02¢/kWh would push the average annual household electricity bill toward $1,847 assuming flat consumption. Meanwhile, the spread between the cheapest and most expensive states remains staggering: Hawaii tops the nation at 42.62¢/kWh while North Dakota sits at the bottom at 11.02¢/kWh — a $31.60 per kWh difference that translates to a monthly bill gap of over $270 for the same amount of electricity consumed. This article pulls together the most current and government-verified electricity cost statistics by year in the US 2026, covering 20 years of historical data, monthly trends, state-by-state breakdowns, sector comparisons, and the EIA’s forward-looking forecasts.
Key Facts & Interesting Statistics: Electricity Costs in the US 2026
| Key Fact | Data Point |
|---|---|
| National avg. residential electricity price (2025 annual) | 17.29¢/kWh |
| EIA forecast: 2026 national residential avg. | 18.02¢/kWh |
| Year-over-year increase (2025 vs. 2024) | +~5% |
| Total residential price increase (2020 to 2025) | +31.38% |
| EIA all-sector avg. (December 2025) | 13.73¢/kWh |
| All-sector avg. year-over-year increase (Dec. 2025) | +7.1% |
| Highest state residential rate (2026) | Hawaii — 42.62¢/kWh |
| Lowest state residential rate (2026) | North Dakota — 11.02¢/kWh |
| National avg. residential electricity rate (March 2026) | 17.24¢/kWh |
| Largest single-state rate increase (Dec. 2024–Dec. 2025) | Rhode Island — +22.6% |
| Largest single-state rate decrease (Dec. 2024–Dec. 2025) | Nevada — −13.7% |
| Avg. US household monthly electricity consumption | ~899 kWh/month |
| Estimated avg. US household annual electricity bill (2025) | ~$1,773 |
| Estimated avg. US household annual electricity bill (2026) | ~$1,847 |
| Avg. commercial electricity rate (2026 forecast) | ~13.5¢/kWh |
| Avg. industrial electricity rate (2026 forecast) | ~8.54¢/kWh |
| California avg. commercial rate (latest EIA data) | 26.92¢/kWh |
| Texas avg. residential rate (March 2026) | 15.87¢/kWh |
| Residential electricity price increase vs. inflation (2022–2026) | +18% vs. CPI +14% |
| EIA forecast electricity demand growth (2026) | +1% |
| EIA forecast electricity demand growth (2027) | +3% |
| Utility infrastructure spending planned (2025–2030) | Up to $1.4 trillion |
| US residential rate increase (Jan. 2025 to May 2025 alone) | +9.7% (15.92¢ → 17.47¢/kWh) |
| Natural gas avg. price forecast for 2026 (Henry Hub) | $4.01/MMBtu |
| November 2025 residential rate (EIA) | 17.78¢/kWh (+5.5% YoY) |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Electric Power Monthly, February 24, 2026; EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2025; EIA Electricity Monthly Update, February 2026; Choose Energy Electricity Rates Report, March 2026
These numbers collectively paint a picture of an electricity market under sustained upward pressure from multiple directions at once. At 17.29¢/kWh in 2025, the national residential average has now risen in every single year since 2019, with the pace of increases accelerating sharply from the relatively flat 0.7% average annual growth rate seen between 2013 and 2020 to a 5.5% average annual growth rate from 2020 to 2025 — a rate running at roughly twice the pace of general consumer price inflation. The 31.38% jump from 2020 to 2025 is particularly striking when you consider that it happened at the same time that utility-scale solar and wind capacity were expanding dramatically, which many consumers had expected would put downward pressure on prices. In reality, the capital costs of grid modernization, storm hardening, and transmission upgrades have more than offset any fuel-cost savings from renewables, a dynamic the EIA explicitly highlights as the primary structural driver of rising bills. The Hawaii vs. North Dakota spread of 31.60¢/kWh is the starkest illustration of how dramatically geography, grid structure, and fuel dependency shape electricity costs across this country — Hawaiian customers pay nearly 4 times what North Dakotans pay for the exact same kilowatt-hour of power.
US Electricity Costs by Year — Last 20 Years Historical Data in the US 2026 (2005–2026)
| Year | Avg. Residential Rate (¢/kWh) | YoY Change (¢/kWh) | YoY Change (%) | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 9.45 | +0.32 | +3.5% | Post-Katrina natural gas price spike raises generation costs |
| 2006 | 10.40 | +0.95 | +10.1% | Natural gas prices remain elevated; infrastructure investment begins |
| 2007 | 10.65 | +0.25 | +2.4% | Coal and gas cost increases; steady demand growth |
| 2008 | 11.26 | +0.61 | +5.7% | Record crude/gas prices in mid-2008 drive generation costs up |
| 2009 | 11.51 | +0.25 | +2.2% | Gas prices fell but rate case lag kept retail rates rising |
| 2010 | 11.54 | +0.03 | +0.3% | Near-flat year; low natural gas prices offset infrastructure costs |
| 2011 | 11.72 | +0.18 | +1.6% | Moderate increase; shale gas begins softening fuel costs |
| 2012 | 11.88 | +0.16 | +1.4% | Natural gas at historic lows; slowest rate growth in decade |
| 2013 | 12.12 | +0.24 | +2.0% | Transmission/distribution spending increases passed to consumers |
| 2014 | 12.52 | +0.40 | +3.3% | Cold winter polar vortex raises demand; grid investment costs rise |
| 2015 | 12.65 | +0.13 | +1.0% | Low gas prices dampen growth; near-flat retail rates |
| 2016 | 12.55 | −0.10 | −0.8% | Only annual decline in 20-year record; gas prices at multi-decade lows |
| 2017 | 12.89 | +0.34 | +2.7% | Moderate increase; rising infrastructure capital recovery costs |
| 2018 | 12.87 | −0.02 | −0.2% | Essentially flat; competitive natural gas prices contain increases |
| 2019 | 13.01 | +0.14 | +1.1% | Slight increase; capacity additions keep market balanced |
| 2020 | 13.17 | +0.16 | +1.2% | COVID demand drop offset by fixed cost recovery; mild increase |
| 2021 | 13.72 | +0.55 | +4.2% | Post-COVID demand rebound; natural gas prices begin rising sharply |
| 2022 | 15.37 | +1.65 | +12.0% | Largest single-year increase in 20 years; gas crisis post-Ukraine war |
| 2023 | 16.23 | +0.86 | +5.6% | Grid investment cost recovery; ongoing infrastructure spending |
| 2024 | 16.47 | +0.24 | +1.5% | Moderate increase; solar additions offset some generation costs |
| 2025 | 17.29 | +0.82 | +5.0% | Data center demand surge; gas price rebound; grid hardening costs |
| 2026 (EIA Forecast) | 18.02 | +0.73 | +4.2% | Continued infrastructure recovery; rising demand; natural gas at $4.01/MMBtu |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Electric Power Annual, Table 5.3; EIA Electric Power Monthly, February 24, 2026; EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2025; Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-Energy
The 20-year sweep of US residential electricity prices from 2005 through 2026 reveals a market with a fundamentally different character from the gasoline market: it moves slowly, almost always upward, and it rarely snaps back down. In the entire 20-year record, there are only two years where the annual average fell — 2016 (−0.8%) and 2018 (−0.2%) — and both of those declines were so small they barely registered in household budgets. The dominant long-term trajectory is a near-unbroken climb from 9.45¢/kWh in 2005 to 18.02¢/kWh projected for 2026 — a cumulative increase of 90.7% over 21 years, or roughly 4.3¢ per kWh added to the average residential bill every decade. The sharpest single year in the entire dataset is 2022, when prices jumped 12.0% (+1.65¢/kWh) — the largest one-year increase on record in this 20-year window — driven by the post-Ukraine War natural gas price shock that sent Henry Hub gas prices spiking and directly raised generation costs for the roughly 40% of US electricity that is produced from natural gas-fired power plants. The contrast with the 2010–2019 decade, where the average annual increase was just 1.3% thanks to the shale gas revolution keeping fuel costs low, is stark.
The post-2020 era has seen a clear structural acceleration in the rate of price increases. From 2020 to 2026, the cumulative residential price increase is projected at 36.8% — compared to a cumulative increase of just 10.2% from 2010 to 2019 over a full decade. Three forces are converging simultaneously to push this new, faster rate of growth: first, the enormous wave of grid infrastructure investment that utilities are pursuing to replace aging transmission and distribution equipment, harden systems against extreme weather, and connect new renewable generation — an investment wave the Edison Electric Institute estimates at $1.4 trillion from 2025 to 2030; second, the data center electricity demand boom driven by artificial intelligence computing needs, with EIA projecting electricity demand growth of 1% in 2026 and 3% in 2027 largely on the back of these large commercial loads clustering in Texas, Virginia, and other key markets; and third, natural gas price recovery to around $4.01/MMBtu in 2026 from historically suppressed levels, raising the fuel cost component of electricity generation. Unlike gasoline, there is no equivalent of OPEC+ overproduction to bring electricity prices down — the drivers are domestic, structural, and decades in the making.
US Electricity Costs Annual Average Summary in the US 2026 (2015–2026)
| Year | Avg. Residential Rate (¢/kWh) | YoY Change | Avg. Annual Household Bill (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 12.65¢ | +1.0% | ~$1,366 |
| 2016 | 12.55¢ | −0.8% | ~$1,355 |
| 2017 | 12.89¢ | +2.7% | ~$1,392 |
| 2018 | 12.87¢ | −0.2% | ~$1,390 |
| 2019 | 13.01¢ | +1.1% | ~$1,405 |
| 2020 | 13.17¢ | +1.2% | ~$1,400 |
| 2021 | 13.72¢ | +4.2% | ~$1,481 |
| 2022 | 15.37¢ | +12.0% | ~$1,660 |
| 2023 | 16.23¢ | +5.6% | ~$1,753 |
| 2024 | 16.47¢ | +1.5% | ~$1,779 |
| 2025 | 17.29¢ | +5.0% | ~$1,867 |
| 2026 (EIA Forecast) | 18.02¢ | +4.2% | ~$1,946 |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Annual Average Residential Retail Electricity Prices; EIA Electric Power Monthly, February 24, 2026; EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2025. Household bill estimates based on avg. ~899 kWh/month consumption × 12 months.
This 2015–2026 focused summary makes the two distinct eras of electricity pricing crystal clear. The 2015–2020 period was remarkably stable by any measure — prices ranged in a narrow band between 12.55¢ and 13.17¢/kWh, the average annual increase was just 0.8%, and estimated annual household electricity bills stayed in the $1,355–$1,405 range for six consecutive years. That era of stability was built on one primary foundation: the shale gas revolution keeping natural gas prices at historically low levels, which held down the fuel cost component for gas-fired power plants that set marginal electricity prices across most of the country. Then came 2022’s shock jump of 12.0% — adding a full $255 to the estimated annual household bill in a single year — followed by sustained 4–5% annual increases in both 2023 and 2025, and a projected +4.2% increase in 2026 that would push the estimated average annual household bill above $1,946 for the first time in history.
The trajectory from 2015 to 2026 tells a story of a $580 per year increase in the average household electricity bill — from roughly $1,366 to $1,946 — in just 11 years. That is money that is not available for other household expenses, and it is happening at a time when many households are simultaneously absorbing higher costs for food, housing, and health care. The 2026 forecast rate of 18.02¢/kWh represents a level that would have seemed implausibly high as recently as 2019 when the national average was 13.01¢/kWh. The EIA itself notes that the residential sector has consistently higher rates and a faster rate of price growth than the commercial and industrial sectors — residential prices are projected at 18.02¢/kWh in 2026 compared to 13.5¢/kWh for commercial and just 8.54¢/kWh for industrial customers — reflecting the higher per-unit cost of delivering electricity through the low-voltage distribution network that serves homes versus the high-voltage transmission lines that serve large commercial and industrial facilities.
Electricity Costs by Month in the US 2026 — Monthly Seasonal Data
| Month | Avg. Residential Rate (¢/kWh) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| January 2025 | 15.92¢ | Winter baseline; heating-season demand elevated |
| February 2025 | ~16.10¢ | Cold weather sustains elevated winter pricing |
| March 2025 | 17.01¢ | Spring increase begins; rate case adjustments take effect |
| April 2025 | ~16.80¢ | Moderate demand shoulder season |
| May 2025 | 17.47¢ | Sharp spring jump; +9.7% from January 2025 alone |
| June 2025 | ~17.60¢ | Summer cooling demand begins driving bills up |
| July 2025 | ~17.80¢ | Peak summer demand; AC load across Sun Belt states |
| August 2025 | ~17.75¢ | Sustained summer peak pricing nationally |
| September 2025 | ~17.50¢ | Late summer; demand begins easing in northern states |
| October 2025 | ~17.20¢ | Fall shoulder season; lower cooling demand |
| November 2025 | 17.78¢ | +5.5% YoY; cold weather demand rises; 46 states saw increases |
| December 2025 | ~13.73¢ (all-sector avg.) | All-sector avg. up +7.1% YoY; residential up +6.0% YoY |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Electric Power Monthly, February 24, 2026; EIA Electricity Monthly Update (December 2025 data); Atlas Buildings Hub analysis of EIA data, August 2025
EIA 2026 Quarterly Residential Electricity Price Forecast in the US 2026
| Quarter | Residential Rate Forecast (¢/kWh) | All-Sector Rate Forecast (¢/kWh) | Key Seasonal Factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 (Jan–Mar) | ~17.50¢ | ~13.30¢ | Winter heating demand; rate case lag from 2025 increases |
| Q2 2026 (Apr–Jun) | ~18.10¢ | ~13.60¢ | Spring demand increase; summer blend transition not applicable |
| Q3 2026 (Jul–Sep) | ~18.60¢ | ~14.10¢ | Peak summer cooling demand; highest quarterly rate expected |
| Q4 2026 (Oct–Dec) | ~17.90¢ | ~13.50¢ | Fall demand easing; winter rate increases begin late Q4 |
| Full-Year 2026 Avg. | 18.02¢ | ~13.79¢ | EIA STEO December 2025 forecast |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2025; American Action Forum analysis of EIA STEO data, October 2025
The monthly electricity price data reveals a seasonal pattern that is nearly the mirror image of gasoline: while gas prices peak in summer and trough in winter, electricity rates — and especially electricity bills — peak in summer due to air conditioning demand and can also spike in winter in colder climates due to heating demand. What the 2025 monthly data makes particularly clear is how aggressively rates accelerated through the year: from 15.92¢/kWh in January 2025 to 17.47¢/kWh in May 2025 — a 9.7% increase in just four months within a single calendar year — demonstrating that utility rate case approvals (which typically take effect in the first or second quarter of the year) can drive sharp mid-year step changes in what households pay. The November 2025 reading of 17.78¢/kWh — up 5.5% from November 2024 with 46 of 50 states seeing year-over-year increases — confirms the breadth and persistence of the upward trend across virtually the entire country.
Looking into 2026, the EIA’s quarterly forecast paints a picture where Q3 (summer) remains the peak pricing quarter at approximately 18.60¢/kWh as cooling demand from households and businesses across the South and West drives up both consumption and marginal generation costs. The projected full-year 2026 all-sector average of 13.79¢/kWh represents an increase from the all-sector rate of approximately 12.90¢/kWh in 2022 — a cumulative rise of roughly 6.9% over four years across all customer types combined. The American Action Forum analysis of EIA data confirms that residential prices are growing at a meaningfully faster pace than commercial or industrial rates, a pattern the EIA attributes to the higher per-unit cost of the low-voltage distribution infrastructure that serves homes and the fact that residential customers have less ability to shift load or negotiate rates than large commercial accounts.
Electricity Costs by State in the US 2026 — Highest & Lowest State Rates
| State | Avg. Residential Rate (¢/kWh) | Rank | Estimated Monthly Bill | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | 42.62¢ | Highest | ~$383 | Island grid; petroleum-fired generation; no mainland grid connection |
| Massachusetts | 29.35¢ | 2nd Highest | ~$264 | Aging gas infrastructure; high grid investment costs; ISO-NE capacity market |
| Connecticut | 28.75¢ | 3rd Highest | ~$258 | High distribution costs; Northeast grid constraints; deregulated market |
| Rhode Island | 28.65¢ | 4th Highest (2024) | ~$257 | +22.6% YoY increase (Dec. 2024–Dec. 2025) — largest increase in US |
| California | ~30.00¢ | 5th Highest (est.) | ~$270 | Grid wildfire hardening; CPUC rate cases; high T&D investment recovery |
| New York | 24.43¢ | Mid-high | ~$219 | Con Edison distribution costs; NYC density premium; state carbon programs |
| National Average | 17.29¢ | — | ~$156 | — |
| Texas | 15.87¢ | Mid-range | ~$174 | Deregulated ERCOT market; high gas generation; data center demand growth |
| Tennessee | 12.42¢ | Near lowest | ~$112 | TVA hydro/nuclear base; low-cost wholesale power |
| Louisiana | 11.73¢ | Near lowest | ~$105 | Gulf Coast gas supply proximity; low transmission costs; mild winters |
| North Dakota | 11.02¢ | Lowest | ~$99 | Abundant coal and wind generation; low demand density; minimal infrastructure costs |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Electric Power Annual, Table 2.10, 2024 data released October 7, 2025; Choose Energy Electricity Rates Report, March 2026; EIA Electric Power Monthly, February 24, 2026
The state-level electricity cost data for 2026 presents one of the most extreme pricing disparities in any consumer market in the United States. The gap between Hawaii at 42.62¢/kWh and North Dakota at 11.02¢/kWh is a 31.60¢/kWh difference — meaning a typical household consuming 899 kWh per month would pay $383 per month in Hawaii versus $99 per month in North Dakota for the exact same amount of electricity. That is a $284 monthly difference, or $3,408 per year, for identical consumption. Hawaii’s extraordinary pricing reflects a structural reality that has no near-term fix: as a chain of islands with no connection to any mainland power grid, each Hawaiian island must generate all of its own electricity locally, historically through expensive imported petroleum. Despite significant solar investment in recent years, the legacy cost structure and the ongoing capital recovery charges for grid modernization keep Hawaii in a tier of its own above every other US state. Rhode Island’s 22.6% year-over-year increase from December 2024 to December 2025 — the largest single-state jump in the country during that period — demonstrates how quickly rates can move when a state’s utility commission approves a major infrastructure cost recovery request.
At the affordable end, the Southern states — particularly Tennessee, Louisiana, and North Dakota — benefit from a combination of low-cost generation resources and relatively modest infrastructure complexity. Tennessee sits within the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) service territory, a federal power authority that operates a large portfolio of hydroelectric and nuclear generation at stable, largely fuel-cost-independent rates. Louisiana benefits from Gulf Coast natural gas proximity that keeps fuel costs for its gas-fired generators among the lowest in the nation, while North Dakota’s combination of coal-fired baseload and rapidly expanding wind generation provides some of the cheapest wholesale power in the country. Critically, the American Action Forum analysis of EIA data found that states with greater shares of renewable energy on the grid have generally seen electricity prices decline, while states with fewer renewables and more aging fossil fuel infrastructure have seen the largest price increases — challenging the popular narrative that renewable energy is responsible for rising electricity costs.
Electricity Costs by Sector in the US 2026
| Customer Sector | 2022 Avg. Rate (¢/kWh) | 2024 Avg. Rate (¢/kWh) | 2025 Avg. Rate (¢/kWh) | 2026 Forecast (¢/kWh) | 2022–2026 Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential | 15.37¢ | 16.47¢ | 17.29¢ | 18.02¢ | +17.2% |
| Commercial | ~12.50¢ | ~13.20¢ | ~13.40¢ | ~13.50¢ | +8.0% |
| Industrial | ~7.80¢ | ~8.20¢ | ~8.40¢ | ~8.54¢ | +9.5% |
| All Sectors (avg.) | ~10.70¢ | ~12.60¢ | ~12.90¢ | ~13.79¢ | +28.9% |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2025; American Action Forum analysis of EIA data, October 2025; EIA Electric Power Annual Table 2.10, 2024
The sector-by-sector breakdown of US electricity costs in 2026 exposes a fundamental structural inequity in how electricity prices are distributed across customer types. Residential customers at a forecast 18.02¢/kWh in 2026 pay more than twice the rate of industrial customers at 8.54¢/kWh and roughly 33% more than commercial customers at 13.50¢/kWh. This is not a recent development — the residential premium over industrial has been a feature of US electricity pricing for decades — but the gap has widened since 2022 as residential rates grew 17.2% while commercial rates grew only 8.0% over the same period. The reason for this differential is straightforward: industrial and large commercial customers purchase electricity at high-voltage transmission levels, avoiding most of the expensive low-voltage distribution infrastructure costs; they also have contractual flexibility to reduce consumption during peak periods (demand response) in exchange for lower rates, and they have greater negotiating leverage with utilities and regulators. Residential customers, by contrast, bear a disproportionate share of the distribution system costs — the poles, wires, and transformers that deliver power to individual homes — which represent a significant fixed cost that utilities recover per kilowatt-hour through retail rates.
The commercial sector’s relatively modest 8.0% increase from 2022 to 2026 compared to residential’s 17.2% increase over the same period is telling. Much of the new demand growth from AI data centers — which the EIA identifies as the primary driver of its 3% total electricity demand growth forecast for 2027 — is classified as large commercial or industrial load, and these customers typically negotiate special rate structures or locate in utility service territories that offer competitive incentives. The irony is that the data center demand boom is one of the factors pushing total system costs higher, but the residential customers who did not benefit from the economic activity generated by those data centers are the ones absorbing the largest proportional share of the resulting infrastructure investment costs through their monthly bills.
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: Electricity Cost Forecast in the US 2026
| Metric | 2024 Actual | 2025 Actual | 2026 EIA Forecast | YoY Change (2025–2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg. Residential Rate (¢/kWh) | 16.47¢ | 17.29¢ | 18.02¢ | +4.2% |
| Avg. Commercial Rate (¢/kWh) | ~13.20¢ | ~13.40¢ | ~13.50¢ | +0.7% |
| Avg. Industrial Rate (¢/kWh) | ~8.20¢ | ~8.40¢ | ~8.54¢ | +1.7% |
| All-Sector Avg. Rate (¢/kWh) | ~12.60¢ | ~12.90¢ | ~13.79¢ | +6.9% |
| Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) | ~$2.20 | $3.56 | $4.01 | +12.6% |
| Total US Electricity Demand (bn kWh) | ~3,962 | ~4,060 | ~4,101 | +1.0% |
| New Utility-Scale Solar Added (GW) | ~30 GW | ~50 GW | ~55 GW | +10.0% |
| Avg. US Household Annual Bill (est.) | ~$1,779 | ~$1,867 | ~$1,946 | +4.2% |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), December 2025; EIA Electric Power Monthly, February 24, 2026; Consumer Affairs analysis of EIA STEO data, December 2025
The EIA’s December 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook frames 2026 as a year where electricity price pressures remain firmly upward, driven by a convergence of forces that are unlikely to reverse in the near term. The 4.2% projected increase in residential rates from 2025 to 2026 — pushing the national average to 18.02¢/kWh — is directly linked to three concurrent trends the EIA quantifies explicitly: the 12.6% rise in Henry Hub natural gas prices from $3.56/MMBtu in 2025 to a projected $4.01/MMBtu in 2026, which raises fuel costs for the gas-fired generators that set marginal electricity prices in most US markets; the ongoing capital cost recovery cycle for transmission and distribution infrastructure upgrades that utilities approved in rate cases over the past three to five years; and the 1% demand growth projection for 2026 that will tighten capacity margins in several key regional markets, particularly ERCOT (Texas) and PJM (Mid-Atlantic/Midwest). The addition of 55 gigawatts of new utility-scale solar in 2026 is substantial and is slowing the rate of price increases, but the EIA’s own analysis confirms it is not yet enough to fully offset the infrastructure and fuel cost pressures flowing through regulated retail rates.
For the average American household, the numbers are straightforward and sobering. The estimated average annual electricity bill of $1,946 in 2026 — up from roughly $1,400 in 2020 — represents a $546 per year increase in just six years, compounding on top of higher costs for food, housing, health care, and other essentials. The EIA projects this upward trend will continue beyond 2026, with 3% electricity demand growth in 2027 driven primarily by data centers pushing system costs and capacity needs even higher. Utilities themselves have signaled the scale of the investment wave ahead: industry estimates of up to $1.4 trillion in infrastructure spending from 2025 to 2030 — covering grid hardening, reliability upgrades, new transmission for renewable integration, and EV charging infrastructure — represent a capital commitment that will be recovered from ratepayers through regulated rates over decades. Unless regulatory commissions accelerate cost-sharing with large commercial customers or deploy new mechanisms to shield residential ratepayers, US household electricity bills are structurally positioned to continue rising through at least the end of this decade.
Disclaimer: This research report is compiled from publicly available sources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the completeness or reliability of the information. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages of any kind arising from the use of this report.

